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When will carbon bikes fall out of favor?

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When will carbon bikes fall out of favor?

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Old 05-06-15, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
CFRP bikes won't be sought after in 50 or 60 years is my point.

Just like no one seeks out and collects bottom-dollar pine-wood furniture from 1900. Stuff was cheap stuff back then and is cheap now. Plastic is the bottom dollar material of our day. How many people seek out 1940s plywood furniture? No one. Stuff was cheap and utilitarian then and cheaper and more utilitarian now, it became dominant due to real wood shortages.



Because it was hard to make and hard to engineer back in the day. Same reason why aluminum "silverware" was thoroughly amazing and having it was a symbol of fantastic wealth back in the end of the 1800s. Aluminum was incredibly hard to refine and produce (requires a crapload of electricity, which back then was also extremely hard to get), and the result lasts forever and didn't tarnish. Aluminum for much of the 19th century was more valuable than gold. Plastic is the material of the last 30-50 years. Everything has come to be made out of the stuff, and it is as intrinsically valuable and artisan a material as plywood. Like I said. Milk jugs. Also all the stuff is mass-produced in China and then resold at incredibly stiff profit margins, something we've come to be rather sore about sending all the US jobs and manufacturing to.
Yada, yada, yada. And steel is not ubiquitous?
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Old 05-06-15, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by rpenmanparker
Why are you confounding the discussion with used frames. How does a new custom steel frame compare in price to a new custom carbon one? I honestly don't know the answer.
Because when I buy a bike, the used market is vastly more relevant to me than the new market, since that's certainly what I'd be buying at any price point into the multiple thousands of dollars. And in any case, I already stated that my criteria is how much enjoyment I personally can get out of any bike at a given cost point. And used steel wins that particular comparison with ease. It wins compared to any other material either new or used.
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Old 05-06-15, 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
CFRP bikes won't be sought after in 50 or 60 years is my point.

Just like no one seeks out and collects bottom-dollar pine-wood furniture from 1900. Stuff was cheap stuff back then and is cheap now. Plastic is the bottom dollar material of our day. How many people seek out 1940s plywood furniture? No one. Stuff was cheap and utilitarian then and cheaper and more utilitarian now, it became dominant due to real wood shortages.
Not vintage quite yet, but have you ever priced a set of original campy carbon ergo levers? You are telling me carbon/ti Davidson's won't be around in 50 years? Or Firefly's? Or Calnago C50s? How are you so sure?
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Old 05-06-15, 06:38 PM
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I've had the following 3 bikes either back to back or at the same time

1) 1999 Lemond Zurich - steel. Weight: 20.5 lbs
2) Specialized Roubaix - carbon. Weight 18 lbs
3) Lynskey R230 - Titanium. Weight 16.3 lbs

Of course this is subjective, but the Roubaix, which I have seen people rave about was a distant 3rd in terms of ride quality and "feel". The 2 metal bikes both felt much more alive and fun. The Carbon bike was so uninspiring and lifeless. I couldn't wait to get rid of it. Bought it used for $1600 and sold it for $1750. Used the money to put dura ace wheels and Campy Record on my Lynskey. That bike is superior in every way.

I'm not completely off the idea of carbon. I just built up a "Tomasso" (generic chinese frame pretty much) carbon with the old Centuar parts and Wildcat wheels I had layiong around and it will be my light touring / work commuting bike. I won't be riding it for thrills.
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Old 05-06-15, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Bandera
Off site manufacturing of fully individualized high quality products whether a chaise lounge or a TT bike delivered directly to the customer are what I envisage.
Biological data capture & power metrics could be done in a sophisticated center that contracts with manufactures for high end products like a race bike or by an in home product for coffee cups.

In the near future mass produced products will be viewed as quaint, old fashioned and endearing relics of a an unsophisticated age.


-Bandera
Yeah, that sounds about like The World of Tomorrow....

Seriously, the problem I have with that is that it assumes that meaningful qualities are readily quantified, and that capture-able biological data is what matters. Heck, people can get custom tailored clothes all day long if they want, and they aren't necessarily more expensive than what they get off-the rack. But do they? No. Most of the time, most people are pretty indifferent to fit - a general approximation is sufficient. I'll grant that customization has undeniable advantages, but the fact is, a lot of people aren't interested and frankly prefer uniformity to individualization.
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Old 05-06-15, 07:14 PM
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I don't have a carbon frame. I've only ridden Steel and Aluminum.

Once Carbon gets within my price range, I might snag one.

But, after having RB-1 snap at the Downtube/Headtube junction because of rust, and having another vintage frame I gave to a friend [A 531 Vulcan, lovely ride] snap in half because of rust, I see the attractiveness of Carbon.

I'm not going to wade through 9 pages, but has anyone mentioned the fact that you can REPAIR carbon? I know people talk about fixing old steel bikes and all that, but what is the price difference?
I think the prevalence of Carbon Repair spots can really put a [ahem] dent on all this talk about steel being a more durable and reliable material.

Will love my CAAD forever, though.
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Old 05-06-15, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by rideBjj
I've had the following 3 bikes either back to back or at the same time

1) 1999 Lemond Zurich - steel. Weight: 20.5 lbs
2) Specialized Roubaix - carbon. Weight 18 lbs
3) Lynskey R230 - Titanium. Weight 16.3 lbs
.
Great post BTW. I have not ridden a Al or CF, and only a Ti MTn Bike, (Whoops, forgot that I bought a CF/Al TREK used for $250 with Shimano 600 on it late last year - duh) but am I correct in assuming people are going to CF to loose a few pounds? I do not think that 2-3 pounds, unless you are racing is just not going to make much different.

There is a marked difference between riding my 32 LB touring bike and the "new" used TREK, but I am guessing the TREK has to be 10 pounds lighter and lighter wheels as well. I don't know if it is true, but I was told that my early 70's Raleigh Competetion when set-up with tubular rims/ties weight a bit over 19Lbs years ago. I know with "regular" rims and components they are 23-24Lbs.
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Old 05-06-15, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by rideBjj
I've had the following 3 bikes either back to back or at the same time

1) 1999 Lemond Zurich - steel. Weight: 20.5 lbs
2) Specialized Roubaix - carbon. Weight 18 lbs
3) Lynskey R230 - Titanium. Weight 16.3 lbs

Of course this is subjective, but the Roubaix, which I have seen people rave about was a distant 3rd in terms of ride quality and "feel". The 2 metal bikes both felt much more alive and fun. The Carbon bike was so uninspiring and lifeless. I couldn't wait to get rid of it. Bought it used for $1600 and sold it for $1750. Used the money to put dura ace wheels and Campy Record on my Lynskey. That bike is superior in every way.

I'm not completely off the idea of carbon. I just built up a "Tomasso" (generic chinese frame pretty much) carbon with the old Centuar parts and Wildcat wheels I had layiong around and it will be my light touring / work commuting bike. I won't be riding it for thrills.
Maybe you should ride something more comparable to the r230 like a tarmac or a venge instead of an endurance frame to compare the materials.
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Old 05-06-15, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by transporterjr
Great post BTW. I have not ridden a Al or CF, and only a Ti MTn Bike, (Whoops, forgot that I bought a CF/Al TREK used for $250 with Shimano 600 on it late last year - duh) but am I correct in assuming people are going to CF to loose a few pounds? I do not think that 2-3 pounds, unless you are racing is just not going to make much different.

There is a marked difference between riding my 32 LB touring bike and the "new" used TREK, but I am guessing the TREK has to be 10 pounds lighter and lighter wheels as well. I don't know if it is true, but I was told that my early 70's Raleigh Competetion when set-up with tubular rims/ties weight a bit over 19Lbs years ago. I know with "regular" rims and components they are 23-24Lbs.
There is more to CF than weight savings. Go read up on it before you join the conversation
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Old 05-06-15, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by D1andonlyDman
That post has been edited to reflect that it is my personal experience, which it inadvertently did not reflect originally. There was never any intent on my part to be "unequivocal" and to imply any universality to my experience. It was a simple omission of the words "for me", which has been corrected.

Most folks who are not anally retentive don't go around looking for opinions on blogs as purporting to be making universal pronouncements, just because they left out the words "in my opinion", or "in my personal experience". Generally, rational people recognize that such meaning is implicit even if it's not stated explicitly.
First paragraph: fine, and again -- 'fair enough'.
Second paragraph (the utterly gratuitous cod psychological analysis): both incorrect analytically in the specific instance and beneath contempt generally.
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Old 05-06-15, 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted by badger1
First paragraph: fine, and again -- 'fair enough'.
Second paragraph (the utterly gratuitous cod psychological analysis): both incorrect analytically in the specific instance and beneath contempt generally.
I'll stand by the 2nd paragraph. It applies to anyone who reads any post on any internet blog or forum posted under an anonymous handle and does NOT assume that the post represents someone's opinion, as opposed to any sort of absolute pronouncement to be taken as an assertion of fact. People who claim to be posting factual information and wish to be taken seriously in doing so, do it for attribution under their real name, with cited sources in support. Anything else is an opinion, and anyone with a brain and judgment who reads said post really ought to assume as much. Surely you wouldn't expect anyone to take as gospel something that is only attributable to someone going by the pseudonym "badger1", would you? Similarly, I would not expect the anonymous handle "D1andonlyDman" to be any more authoritative as a source as "badger1". If I was expecting to be taken seriously as a provider of factual information, I'd do so under my true name, with supporting source material cited as appropriate.

When you recognize that anonymous internet blogs are bastions of opinions, rather than authoritative factual information to be relied upon as such, you will be doing yourself a big favor in life.

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Old 05-06-15, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by redlude97
There is more to CF than weight savings. Go read up on it before you join the conversation
There a right way to converse with people. Go read up on it before you join in on a conversation.
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Old 05-06-15, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by StanSeven
This statement is getting very, very old. I have two CF bikes, a steel, an aluminum, and just sold a Ti. I am actually pretty careless with the way I treat all and have at least crashed all, in at least minor mishaps. The CF are no worse than the others. The only material I ever had to scrap is aluminum.
Personal anecdote duly noted. It doesn't change the fact that CF, while impressively strong when perfect, is more easily compromised by events that would not even phase steel.

Witness all the "Is this scratch compromising the integrity of my CF frame/fork/component?" threads on BF. The reason why we see these threads is understandable: The posters know that CF is the material most likely to fail in catastrophic fashion.
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Old 05-06-15, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
It doesn't change the fact that CF, while impressively strong when perfect, is more easily compromised by events that would not even phase steel.
Citation for said fact, please.
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Old 05-06-15, 10:02 PM
  #190  
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
I want my next bike to be chiseled out of a block of steel by a true artisan.

Yes, and it's so when the bike gets nicked/scratched/damaged in normal use or from a minor drop/crash the cyclist has to buy a new one, of course. Having bikes last 20-30 (or more) years is not good for business.
There are CF MTBs designed to take a lot of abuse, and still save a bit of weight over the traditional steel or aluminum frames. It should be possible to make a commuter or touring bike that can take a lot of abuse, and out perform the steel beasts of burden.

You may be right, however, there is little incentive to make a bike last forever. Just like anything else, no need to make it outlast the original owner. Make it just seem to be durable when on display.

As far as steel artisans... I suppose there are a few. But the vast majority of the metal bikes on the road today. Treks, Colnagos, Peugeots, Schwinns, etc.... All were made in a factory.... and aren't much more artisan built than a toaster.
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Old 05-06-15, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK
There are CF MTBs designed to take a lot of abuse, and still save a bit of weight over the traditional steel or aluminum frames. It should be possible to make a commuter or touring bike that can take a lot of abuse, and out perform the steel beasts of burden.

You may be right, however, there is little incentive to make a bike last forever. Just like anything else, no need to make it outlast the original owner. Make it just seem to be durable when on display.

As far as steel artisans... I suppose there are a few. But the vast majority of the metal bikes on the road today. Treks, Colnagos, Peugeots, Schwinns, etc.... All were made in a factory.... and aren't much more artisan built than a toaster.
Schwinn Paramounts were not exactly made in the same manner as the Schwinn Le Tour or Continental.
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Old 05-07-15, 01:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Lazyass
How many more years do you think the industry can milk the dollars before serious riders decide to go back to aluminum, ti and steel? I mean, there has been a slow resurgence, but when do you think it will pick up speed?
Any minute now. Carbon suuuuucks, and you can only pull the wool over the ostrich's head for so long.
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Old 05-07-15, 02:25 AM
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Originally Posted by rideBjj
I've had the following 3 bikes either back to back or at the same time

1) 1999 Lemond Zurich - steel. Weight: 20.5 lbs
2) Specialized Roubaix - carbon. Weight 18 lbs
3) Lynskey R230 - Titanium. Weight 16.3 lbs

Of course this is subjective, but the Roubaix, which I have seen people rave about was a distant 3rd in terms of ride quality and "feel". The 2 metal bikes both felt much more alive and fun. The Carbon bike was so uninspiring and lifeless. I couldn't wait to get rid of it. Bought it used for $1600 and sold it for $1750. Used the money to put dura ace wheels and Campy Record on my Lynskey. That bike is superior in every way.

I'm not completely off the idea of carbon. I just built up a "Tomasso" (generic chinese frame pretty much) carbon with the old Centuar parts and Wildcat wheels I had layiong around and it will be my light touring / work commuting bike. I won't be riding it for thrills.
I've recently test ridden the following three bikes back-to-back:

1) 2015 Kuota Kiral
2) 2015 Eddy Merckx SanRemo76
3) 2015 Willier Cento1SR

The Willier was easily the lightest and quickest feeling, the most exciting bike I've ever had a chance to ride. The Merckx felt heavy and sluggish until pushed hard. The Kuota felt neutral and stable.

I guess I should look for bikes made from the same material as the Willier, and skip the bikes made from the material that Merckx and Kuota use. I wonder what those materials might be.
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Old 05-07-15, 05:24 AM
  #194  
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this all sounds like going to sleep on various different beds and blaming your discomfort on the bed frame.
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Old 05-07-15, 05:40 AM
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Originally Posted by cale
...If you could imagine a carbon fiber flaw so great that it posed a risk to riders and the public, THEN I think the end of carbon fiber will be near.

Isn't it a serious an assplosion risk?
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Old 05-07-15, 06:28 AM
  #196  
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Originally Posted by WhyFi
Citation for said fact, please.
https://youtu.be/Zn29u7GoqPk
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Old 05-07-15, 06:35 AM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
How does the above video support your contention that steel would not have been "phased"? You sir, are anecdotally challenged.
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Old 05-07-15, 06:45 AM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
Please keep in mind that for every carbon bike explosion there are as many metal bike failures. The thing is when a metal bike fails no one thinks OMG! Metal bike bends, cracks or breaks = dog bites man , yawn. Carbon failure? Proof that all my present and former retro grouch bikes are better.
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Old 05-07-15, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick

Witness all the "Is this scratch compromising the integrity of my CF frame/fork/component?" threads on BF. The reason why we see these threads is understandable: The posters know that CF is the material most likely to fail in catastrophic fashion.
The reason we see these threads IS understandable. Because there are literally thousands of forum posts from over the last 10-15 years containing ridiculous retrogrouch alarmism about CF asplosions. I really enjoyed the ones where internet engineers would talk about modulus of failure. People see all this silly goosery and think they need to wory about a paint chip on their new bike.

I will say, it has been a while since I have seen such nonsense here at BF, and I have always found these posts good for a laugh, so carry on.
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Old 05-07-15, 08:26 AM
  #200  
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Originally Posted by rpenmanparker
How does the above video support your contention that steel would not have been "phased"? You sir, are anecdotally challenged.
Fair enough. When responding to the question "what is this thread about", kc posted this:

Originally Posted by kc0bbq
It's a thought experiment in threads, a carbon bashing thread where no one posts busted carbon links.
So someone had to do it, I figured. I just want to be helpful, is all.

Lookie this! OMG is CF fragile!
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