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Carbon Bike Bubble

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Old 09-17-16, 06:11 AM
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Carbon Bike Bubble

What I hear from local shops in NJ, many high end, is that sales have fallen off a cliff and customers are underwhelmed by expensive bikes with mediocre to less than mediocre components.

Let's hope this is true and that customers start getting better choices at their local shops.
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Old 09-17-16, 06:16 AM
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I cannot think of a time when people were overwhelmed by expensive bikes with mediocre or less-than-mediocre components. But hey ... New Jersey is a strange place.

Good to see your agenda is healthy.
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Old 09-17-16, 06:32 AM
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I'm not sure this has anything to do with "carbon", but I think bike sales in general have been on the decline after a short lived recent bubble.
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Old 09-17-16, 06:40 AM
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It's those damn speculator buying them up, upgrading them, and then selling them off for a quick profit!
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Old 09-17-16, 07:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Mulberry20
What I hear from local shops in NJ, many high end, is that sales have fallen off a cliff and customers are underwhelmed by expensive bikes with mediocre to less than mediocre components.

Let's hope this is true and that customers start getting better choices at their local shops.
What does this even mean? How are carbon frames to blame for "mediocre to less than mediocre components"? Last I checked, you can get a pretty nice CF frame with 105 for less than $1700 MSRP.
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Old 09-17-16, 07:09 AM
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Old 09-17-16, 07:40 AM
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Originally Posted by WhyFi
What does this even mean? How are carbon frames to blame for "mediocre to less than mediocre components"? Last I checked, you can get a pretty nice CF frame with 105 for less than $1700 MSRP.
I don't know about the OP's premise of declining sales, but it does seem that a some manufacturers really don't give you anything near a full groupset. Generally a hodge-podge of different brand componentry, for example:

Spec Tarmac Sport SL4 (MSRP $2000): 105 cassette and shifters, KMC Chain, Praxis crank and BB, Tiagra brakes
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Old 09-17-16, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Sy Reene
I don't know about the OP's premise of declining sales, but it does seem that a some manufacturers really don't give you anything near a full groupset. Generally a hodge-podge of different brand componentry, for example:

Spec Tarmac Sport SL4 (MSRP $2000): 105 cassette and shifters, KMC Chain, Praxis crank and BB, Tiagra brakes
If a Praxis crankset and BB is a part of a hodge-podge, sign me up. The Tiagra brakes are a bit chintzy, but I do understand the oft-mismatched crankset, particularly with abundance of BB30/PF30 frames.

In any event, the bike that I was specifically thinking of in my previous post, the 2017 TCR Advanced 2 @$1650, comes with full 105 with the exception of a KMC X11 chain.
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Old 09-17-16, 08:14 AM
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Tiagra brakes are actually quite good in my opinion (a rare opinion based on personal experience---not necessarily more valid therefore, of course. )
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Old 09-17-16, 10:06 AM
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As Component factories charge more money, to hold a price you want to pay, down
they move down the component pick list.

want the best of everything , dont ask what it costs.
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Old 09-17-16, 10:17 AM
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Praxis cranks are pretty darn good. An upgrade if anything.
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Old 09-17-16, 11:38 AM
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All that really means is that people with 5 year old bikes aren't feeling compelled to upgrade.

Which is fine, the new push is in gravel and 650b MTN bikes.
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Old 09-17-16, 11:41 AM
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Lol, Trollberry at it again.
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Old 09-17-16, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by gsa103
Which is fine, the new push is in gravel and ...
This is certainly where I'd purchase next.
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Old 09-17-16, 11:58 AM
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Oh, that kind of bubble.

#disappointed
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Old 09-17-16, 11:07 PM
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Originally Posted by WhyFi

In any event, the bike that I was specifically thinking of in my previous post, the 2017 TCR Advanced 2 @$1650, comes with full 105 with the exception of a KMC X11 chain.
And that is no downgrade.
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Old 09-17-16, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Sy Reene
I don't know about the OP's premise of declining sales, but it does seem that a some manufacturers really don't give you anything near a full groupset. Generally a hodge-podge of different brand componentry, for example:

Spec Tarmac Sport SL4 (MSRP $2000): 105 cassette and shifters, KMC Chain, Praxis crank and BB, Tiagra brakes
When I was looking last winter one of the key points a Trek salesman said about the Emonda was that they came with complete matched groupsets but that is the only model that I know. I do wonder what's considered "high end" in the OP. I would consider up to $1500 entry level, from there to $4K to be mid level, $4K-$8K high end with anything above that being stupid expensive (a term I've seen from one of our esteem members who owns one).

On sort of a tangent, I wonder what the price is going to be on the new FSA electronic groupset.
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Old 09-17-16, 11:35 PM
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I am finding that even on eBay, CF components that five to seven years ago could be had for X prices are now being offered for 2X or 3X prices. Seatposts and handlebars, for example, are now at threshhold prices that I won't even consider against aluminium.

I am getting a feeling that the manufacturers of CF are jacking up their prices to the bike factories, and with all the new models and moulds that are needed to create them, the cost of frames is increasing. To compensate, there has to be some compromises on component levels to keep the prices within the reach of the target markets.

Bob Dop or Psimet might like to chime in on this?

And it also could be that this latest bike fad has matured and is now started to decline.
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Old 09-18-16, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Rowan
I am finding that even on eBay, CF components that five to seven years ago could be had for X prices are now being offered for 2X or 3X prices. Seatposts and handlebars, for example, are now at threshhold prices that I won't even consider against aluminium.

I am getting a feeling that the manufacturers of CF are jacking up their prices to the bike factories, and with all the new models and moulds that are needed to create them, the cost of frames is increasing. To compensate, there has to be some compromises on component levels to keep the prices within the reach of the target markets.

Bob Dop or Psimet might like to chime in on this?

And it also could be that this latest bike fad has matured and is now started to decline.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I am pretty sure that CF frame prices are being set in inverse relationship to weight. Reduced weight is the driver for the higher prices. Yes the price for the "best" frame in each line has gone way up, but I am pretty sure you can still get last year's weight CF frame for close to last year's price, probably even less. Or to be more specific, I used to have a 1,200 g Giant CF frame that had an MSRP of about $2,700. If they still make a CF frame that heavy now, I doubt it costs that much.

Similarly for components.
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Old 09-18-16, 06:00 AM
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As if .01% of riders can "outride" today's $1500 bikes with their "lower level" components. But it's nice to go on a forum and act like we can.
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Old 09-18-16, 06:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Rowan
I am finding that even on eBay, CF components that five to seven years ago could be had for X prices are now being offered for 2X or 3X prices. Seatposts and handlebars, for example, are now at threshhold prices that I won't even consider against aluminium.

I am getting a feeling that the manufacturers of CF are jacking up their prices to the bike factories, and with all the new models and moulds that are needed to create them, the cost of frames is increasing. To compensate, there has to be some compromises on component levels to keep the prices within the reach of the target markets.

Bob Dop or Psimet might like to chime in on this?

And it also could be that this latest bike fad has matured and is now started to decline.
Going back to my TCR example doesn't seem to indicate this. Again, full 105 at $1650 MSRP. This is the most aggressive that I've seen, but the others certainly are following suit. In the 5600 105 days, though, entry level carbon bikes had heavier frames and were fighting to squeeze in under $2000 street price (personal experience because that's what and when I shopped and bought). IOW, I don't see any foundation to the notion that bikes are getting more expensive with mediocre components (only the most jaded or out-of-their-mind 41ier would classify as 5800 as such).
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Old 09-18-16, 07:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Mulberry20
What I hear from local shops in NJ, many high end, is that sales have fallen off a cliff and customers are underwhelmed by expensive bikes with mediocre to less than mediocre components.

Let's hope this is true and that customers start getting better choices at their local shops.
Suppliers ship 6 percent fewer bikes through June | Bicycle Retailer and Industry News says performance road bike sales are up 3% for the first 6 months of 2016.

Fat bikes and lifestyle bikes are the categories showing the biggest drops.

My LBS has good carbon bikes with 105 for around $1,500. Seems like a good deal to me.
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Old 09-18-16, 02:07 PM
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You should change your name to Mayberry, as in "Mayberry RFD," because you're living in the past. Seriously, get off your anti-carbon high-horse. The old days are gone forever.
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Old 09-18-16, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by RobbieTunes
As if .01% of riders can "outride" today's $1500 bikes with their "lower level" components. But it's nice to go on a forum and act like we can.
Outride??? Maybe not, but you can certainly feel the difference.

But then, ask the guy that has this on his bike:
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Old 09-18-16, 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted by oldnslow2
Outride??? Maybe not, but you can certainly feel the difference.

But then, ask the guy that has this on his bike:
I have one of those on my TT bike. The UFO chain too.

I'm regularly on the podium in my TTs.
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