redoak

What's the word on the street? Will (11) spd trickle down to Ultegra mechanical or electronic?

If so, do we have to wait until the 2014 models show up in August / Sept 2013?

Andy_K 

Personally, I'm waiting for one of the manufacturers to realize there's a market for high quality 8-speed drivetrains.

That said, I'm guessing (and only guessing) that whenever Ultegra gets 11-speed it will be available as both electronic and mechanical.

achoo

Why? It costs pretty much the same to manufacture an 8-speed drivetrain of any given quality as it does to manufacture a 10- or 11-speed drivetrain of the same quality. What's the difference? 2-3 cogs on the cassette and a few more detents in the right shifter mechanism? Would you pay $400 for an 8-speed groupset when you can get an otherwise identical 10-speed one for $402?

Bike drivetrains are differentiated on features anyway. And the number of speeds is by far the biggest feature. Weight is the other. The market for a "high quality 8-speed drivetrain" is probably a lot smaller than you think.

I'm guessing it won't happen until Shimano thinks they've pretty much tapped out the "gotta have it now so I'll pay more" DuraAce 11-speed crowd.

RJM

8 speed chains and cogs (at least the good ones) last forever, that is why we will not see it again.

redoak

Any of you Product Manager types out there tuned in?
Maybe some Taiwan based peoples..................well crap, is it Chinese New Year right about now? They may all be face down in some large alcoholic drinks with tiny umbrellas.

patentcad

I hear that cutting edge gear will be hitting the market by the year 2000. In the meantime, party like it's 1999.

redoak

That's awesome guys...............(8) speed. Thanks for the input. cough...ahem.......cough.........hi-jack! Please go to a thread where they are discussing vintage components.

RJM

You are asking for a prediction of the future, so anything really goes. I would buy a quality/modern 8 speed group over an 11 speed group if it were made.

I would assume 11 speed will take over everything to 105 in three or four years. I don't believe that kind of cluster in the rear does anything for the average rider except allow him/her the pleasure of replacing chains and sprockets at a much more frequent rate.

I would be alright with 11 speed if the chains and cassettes lasted as long as the 8 speed stuff, they just don't and they aren't exactly cheap to replace.

Carbon Unit

An 8 speed would be fine if I lived in some place flat like Kansas but since I live I hill country, I want a wide range cassette with gears spaced as close as I can get.

darb85

2014 or 15 probably, why would they dig into their Dura-ace profits too early?

darb85

You have a 2000 dollar bicycle and cant afford a 40 dollar chain? Really? let me guess, you ride your tires until the cords show and refuse to pay more than 20 bucks and complain about how they perform. Its amazing to me how cheap some cyclists are. jeebus

coasting 

I never feel like I lack enough gears. But then again, I felt like that on my 7 speed with DT shifters.

coasting 

I bet he is richer than you.

darb85

I almost guarantee he is.

coasting 

I can't wait until he starts a $10k bike thread.

RJM

No, I probably am not and I don't have a problem with replacing stuff that gets worn. I just don't want to be replacing my chain twice a year when there is no need to. I will be the first in line to purchase electric ultegra or dura ace with 8 speed cassette and chains. That would be a dream drivetrain for me.

darb85

never happen, that's Half my income.

Carbon Unit

You are changing your chain twice a year. Do you ride 6,000 miles per year?

Carbon Unit

No one will ever produce an 8 speed electronic groupo. It makes no sense. It would be like a car company adding a crank start to a new car. You may find 8 speed useful but it is antiquated.

Christobevii3

11 speed cassettes would be nice for wider gearing I guess. A 11-28 with less gapping? I'll probably keep using my 10 speed 105 till 11 speed di2 is cheap or they make a 105 di2 or something. I'm too fat to upgrade.

RJM

Yes.

RJM

Oh come on, it would be like a car company making a 4 speed instead of 6 speed manual transmission.

coasting 

also unlikely

grolby

The fact that you and some people you know would buy it is a long, long way from there being a market large enough to justify development and production. Besides, you can still buy high-quality 8-speed parts; the designs will be old, because, see previous sentence. Developing parts is expensive, and they just wouldn't sell enough to justify the specific costs of designing this stuff. They especially wouldn't sell enough to justify the opportunity cost of putting engineers and money that could be used on next-generation products on a retro project like this. Opportunity cost is a real thing. "There's a market" isn't good enough, and never has been.

As for 11-speed Ultegra, history suggests that it will be out for the next model year, 2014. So, later this year. 105 will follow for 2015. Mechanical and electronic for Ultegra, no question. It'll be interesting to see if a Di2 version of 105 comes out as well.

Carbon Unit

Well it is a little different. A car trany is designed to match up to the specific power curve of one engine. The trans on a bike needs to work with a lot of different engines in different applications and more gears offers more versatility. A compact crank with 11 speeds is more useful than an 8 speed for hill climbing.