Gege-Bubu

Thanks for starting interesting discussion, Bob!

Well, I do not understand how bicycle industry survives. This is not a car that everyone needs, but the cost of a good road bike is compatible with the cost of a used car. If someone gets a bike, this is it. The only bike for the rest of the life. I have 2, planning on building the third one, but I am not typical LBS customer.

Then there is a huge after market. Almost all upgrades I did I bought used frame and parts online that served me well as good as new.

My question is about bicycle industry potential.

I watching my local annual century ride and one in particular has number or participants dropping dramatically: from 5000 10-15 years ago to less then 2000 last year.

Do you see more people in general and % riding the bikes or less? Will this number is going up or down? Or this is a set number, like lets say there is always 10% of cyclists at any given population?

kbarch

Single speed track bikes are not necessarily heavier than multi-speed road bikes, but there are definite reasons the bikes you may be referring to are heavier, mostly having to do with economics. The main reason multi-speed road bikes are especially light is because so many roadies are weight weenies.

WhyFi

You don't really specify what type of ride your local, annual century ride is, but I think that, in general, there's an awful lot more variety and competition when it comes to organized rides - things like Gran Fondos and brewery-sponsored centuries are popping up more frequently so some of the mainstays (like long-running centuries and MS150s) may be seeing fewer participants.

In terms of ridership, I can't speak for the industry as a whole, but both of my cities of recent residence, NYC and Minneapolis, have seen quite a significant uptick in cyclists in the last decade as they've aggressively pushed the development of cycling infrastructure, particularly for more casual users.

Dave Cutter

I know. I owned a light-steel Bianchi [converted to a] fixie. With a cut-down handle bar and ultra light saddle too. The bicycle seemed to weigh nothing. I think I could really enjoy something like a modern English racer. Maybe with a belt driven multi-gear rear hub.

I don't think the BMX sports... did much to create future road cyclist... and I don't see many middle-aged BMXers ether. And the glory years of having an American world champion dominating road cycling... may be over. And that has caused an impact in road bike sales from what I've heard and read. And although G.W. Bush has had a positive impact on Mountain bikes and senior cyclists in general that too won't last forever.

I don't think the industry has the resources or desire to create a long term market. And instead try to capitalize on trends and fads. following trends isn't a bad thing! Those markets are real and should be serviced.

But.... It was the bicycle racers that lead Americans to road cycling. And Kids... inspired by motocross... created BMX. Gary Fisher and (other bored hippies) created the mountain bike industry. I guess the cycling industry may have created the "hybrid" bicycle targeted to health conscious baby boomers. But that also sounds like a temporary market. If anything the hipsters with their "city bikes" should be leading the way of trendy bicycles.

Gege-Bubu

this one
https://www.tosrv.org/14/history.htm

1962 - 2 riders
1990 - 6456 riders
2013 - 1851 riders

And there are no numbers for this year, either organizers lost interest, or did not manage to attract more cyclists.

WhyFi

Well, yeah, but the salient point was to take a look around and see if there's a lot more stuff going on in your region that might be sapping participant from one particular ride. Looking at Ohio Bicycle Events Calendar | A publication of the Ohio Bicycle Federation and Bike a Century: Ohio Ride List, it seems to me like people in the area may have more significantly more variety available than they did in 1990.

Gege-Bubu

I can count organized century rides on my fingers Does not look very many to me. maybe ppl stopped riding organized
I personally did ride 7 or something centuries this year. Some of them were solo rides.
But I'd rather take part in organized ride, takes off trouble about road constructions, getting food and water. And I value a good company on wheels.

StanSeven

You are exactly right. The cycling industry doesn't have a vision or a long term plan. It can't. People won't be surprised if the market stays flat or even drops. There are flashes to cause new consumer spending but short lived like Cervelo and aero bikes, carbon wheels, gps, etc. But how many young people in their 20s do you see deciding to take up cycling and spend money? If they are into fitness they spend in health clubs where they can take classes and work out in a climate controlled place with all thir electronics.

WhyFi

You must have big hands - I count 52 rides with route options of 100 miles or more on this calendar - 2014 Ohio Bicycle Events Calendar (pdf download).

BoSoxYacht

What are you talking about? I know many cyclists, and none of them think their bike is the only one they'll have for the rest of their life.

Gege-Bubu

I did not see this one, I looked up another link with only 9 rides listed. But, does anyone travels for more than 2 hrs to join a century ride? I do not, unless if it is organized within reasonable time travel from my home.
Anyway, I am curious is the number of cyclists growing or dropping in general and in %?

sickz

here's a myth i'd like to address:

MADE IN CHINA = GARBAGE, low quality, cheap materials, no quality control.

the chinese have the machines, skill, and talent to manufacturer quality products to fine tolerances. they have the equipment which is more than capable. (moriseiki, matsuura, etc.... NO THEY DONT USE HAAS garbage =\). i know this for fact because i have serviced many of the ball screws for their cnc machines.

corporations tend to look towards china to mass manufacturer the products which are going to be the affordable stuff for the typical cheap consumer. naturally, these are ordered in the highest volumes. the retail price has to be within the cheap shoppers radar. costs have to be cut somewhere. importing, material, quality assurance, tolerances.. all dictate the final msrp. import costs and tolerances is where most costs are cut.

china can make high quality products just as well as the next guy. no i wouldn't look towards china for cutting edge product and r&d, but they are definitely reliable if you send them a print. they stay well within the sloppy tolerances US corporations order which is where a lot of cost is saved.

corporations specify they want crap and order crap. china supplies crap happily. it's that simple. you want a $100 frame? ok then. enjoy crap.

Bob Dopolina 

Yes. Also open model or open tooling.

Hapsmo911

I work as a service manager for a large automotive retailer. Years ago when invoice prices on vehicles became common knowledge because of the internet, dealers had a hard time adjusting, but they did. Factory incentives became a little better, that helped. Now dealers decide on either moving metal or holding gross. If you move metal you have more units in operation for your service department and chase the incentives. I say all this because the bicycle business, to me, seems to run in similar manor when talking about retailers. I would think that bicycle retailers need to find new ways to adjust to the loss of gross on parts if they can no longer compete in that portion of their business. Offer new services? Take the loss on parts and make up for the difference in labor sales? I mean when people buy these new shiny parts many of them, I would think, don't have the tools, or are not capable to install them themselves. Or maybe sell food, coffee or whatever. Think outside the box as they say and come up with some reasons for people to spend money in your shop. But what the heck do I know I'm a dumb car guy.....

Where do you see the mom and pop bicycle shops headed in markets where they must compete with larger retailers?

Bob Dopolina 

@sickz, correct not all stuff from China is crap but the problem is that there is a lot of crap coming from China.

I guess this is really about carbon. Carbon frames are mainly done in China at the moment with some being made in Taiwan. Believe it or not, it's easier to make a frame as the tolerances are much easier to deal with. The problems with China are things like labour turn over, transperency and business ethics.

Carbon is a hands on, labour intensive process and will continue to be until someone can figure out how to automate it. This means that those doing the layup need to be trained. Labour turnover in China is extremely high. Many workers spend the entire year away from their families in a different part of the country and only get to see them during Chinese New Year Holidays. A lot of those workers never return to the factory once they are home again. I have heard numbers around 20%. That means you are constantly training a significant portion of your workforce and most have no long terms plans the stay at their jobs.

This creates conditions for work that is very inconsistent. When you factor in razor thin margins and business practices that are in direct conflict of those of the Western companies who are the customers it gets pretty easy to see why these is a lot of crap on eBay.

Now, there are some vendors who have good management, oversight and business practices. These companies produce excellent products. These companies are the ones producing the high end goods for major brands and are factories you will never hear of because they don't go consumer direct and they don't dump product on eBay or Alibaba.

Taiwan vendors have far more stable workforces. Wages are higher, conditions better and turn over is much lower. For the most part, business practices are also more in line with their Western customers as they have been at it longer and can manage long terms relationships.

Taiwan is also past the point of simply copying Western products for less and now spends on R&D and many vendors now innovate on their own. There are some innovative products coming from China but most ideas still come from their Western partners.

gregjones

You will have to answer that for yourself. The answer is quite obvious and I could put a label on you........but the mods would swoop down as angels from above and slap a holy banned on me. You aren't worth it.

Bacciagalupe

What "larger retailers?" Walmart? Target? They already do, on the low end.

Internet sales? They already do.

Performance Bike? Big chain, but unless sales quadruple, the market can't support multiple big bike chains in overlapping areas. How many other big chains are there?

bt

ok, so why is it mostly never blasted all over the internet when said "crap" malfunctions, if there is so much of it?

gregjones

In a different life and time, I was at dinner with the head of the design team for the 928. He was asked how good is this new design compared to the classic Porsche. His response: "If I could afford a Porsche, this is the one that I would buy."

That doesn't have anything to do with Asian workers or bikes. But, they are wage workers earning a paycheck. Just because they make a part that is going to wind up on a 10k+ bike doesn't mean a lot. They get up, go to work, hope not to get injured, do the best job possible and go home to their families. Not a lot different than installing zippers in a pair of Brooks Bros. slacks.

It's not just bikes. A lot of different things are being made very well in China. They are doing a super job with acoustic instruments. Eastman instruments comes to mind.

Didn't Lee Iacocca say back in the eighties along the lines that the Japanese are the best sword sharpeners in the world, we need to design a new weapon?

Bob Dopolina 

It is.

It doesn't mean that EVERYTHING fails. The RATE of failure is much, much higher and well beyong what would be considered acceptable for manufactured goods. Scroll through any of the long threads out there on the various forums. Plenty of good reviews, plenty of mixed reviews and plenty of outright bad reviews.

There are far too many bad reviews (as in product failures) for those goods to be considered stable.

MrCoffee

I would really like those statistics too. This last summer, my area saw THREE bike shop closures. Prior to that, a couple others went out of business two years ago. What is left is a bike rental that sells some Schwinns and motor scooters, one Giant/Cannondale dealer, a Trek dealer, and a Bianchi/All City dealer who also sells higher-end used bikes. All of them except the Trek dealer sells Surly. The bike rental bought out the two shops that closed a couple years ago, and others that went out of business prior. I think they're the only ones that aren't hurting, but most people in the area don't like dealing with them. Well, they have to if they want to get parts to fix their rigs. I think the trend is towards a reduce number of bicyclists, except for non-recreational commuters in a very small, contained area that is not car friendly.

Raiden

Not entirely central to your post, but since this is a bike industry thread, I thought I'd mention that a huge percentage of bike shops deal with Quality Bike Parts as a supplier, and Surly and All City (and Salsa and Civia and a few more) are supplied by Quality. They tend to be fairly low-margin bikes for shops even at MSRP, but they're bikes that customers will walk in off the street for, and generally simple bikes anyone can build.

Quality Bicycle Products: Bikes, Wholesale Bicycle Parts, Wholesale Bicycle distribution If you ever want one of these brands, but your local/favorite shop doesn't have one on the floor, just ask them, they can probably get it.

patentcad

I think all you bike industry mooks should all be kissing my Pcad ass for just blowing like $15K on new high end bike crap.

Hapsmo911

in my area large retailers are REI, Sports Authority, Mikes Bikes........ I guess the San Francisco Bay Area can and does support many large retailers. My point was more about parts and the effect of the internet on smaller shops.

bt

I think you're wrong.

happy reading...

(Cheap) Chinese Carbon Rims?- Mtbr.com