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Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?

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Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?

Old 12-02-14, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
...To summarize, you've indicated that old things automatically are less functional or than new.
No. I'm saying that old things are simply old things. There is a certain type of thinking that extols the virtue of old things over new things. The logic is constructed by cherry picking certain attributes that old things have that new things don't (or have less of) and declaring these cherry picked attributes to be the all important indicators of "progress".

Real progress:
  • Brifters (integrated brake/shift levers)
  • Dual pivot rim brakes
  • Carbon
  • Cassette hubs
  • 8+ speed internal gear hub systems
  • Compact road drivetrains
Marketing crap:
  • Compact (sloping top tube) road framesets
  • Disc brakes for the road
  • [Expanded gear clusters] (modified to avoid the emotionally charged language of this single list item)
List out, specifically, why you believe the six items in the "real progress" list belong there and why the others belong in the "marketing crap" list. After all, there are modernists who will find important advances in each of your three "marketing crap" items, and there are retrogrouches who will find issues will each and every item on your "real progress" list.


For instance:
  • compact frames brought carbon frames to the masses; making three or four size frames makes carbon (listed in your "real progress" list) cost effective to mass produce.
  • Commuters and all us here in the PNW tend to like road disc brakes. Rims are expensive and time consuming to replace.
  • 10 speed gave us the ubiquitous 12-25 cassette with the 16 cog; pretty nice all purpose gear cluster. The more aged group of baby boomer cycling enthusiasts are enjoying the addition of the 27 tooth cog without sacrifice when 11 speed came out a couple years ago.

On the other side of things:
  • people argue endlessly about brifters. I mean, the lack of halfway decent entry level road bikes in the $500-$1000 range is wholly due to brifters, which after almost 25 years have failed to come down much in price.
  • Dual pivot brakes are a wash; roadies have never really used brakes much and the single pivots weren't that bad anyway. If anything, the advance in rim braking belongs to brake pad compounds more than anything.
  • Go to the commuter forum and mention carbon, I dare you.
  • You like cassette hubs but not too many gears and you think 8+ internal gear hubs, which no recreational fitness cyclist uses, is a "real progress"?
  • Compact road drivetrains used to be called "touring cranks" and they have been around ever since multi-ring cranksets were invented.

My argument is all these groupings of technologies into "real progress" and "marketing crap" are all arbitrary. Go ahead. Show me a consistent system I can use to group the next new technology that doesn't involve your particular collection of bikes or what era you, in particular, were born to.
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Old 12-02-14, 07:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Brian Ratliff
No. I'm saying that old things are simply old things. There is a certain type of thinking that extols the virtue of old things over new things. The logic is constructed by cherry picking certain attributes that old things have that new things don't (or have less of) and declaring these cherry picked attributes to be the all important indicators of "progress".



List out, specifically, why you believe the six items in the "real progress" list belong there and why the others belong in the "marketing crap" list. After all, there are modernists who will find important advances in each of your three "marketing crap" items, and there are retrogrouches who will find issues will each and every item on your "real progress" list.


For instance:
  • compact frames brought carbon frames to the masses; making three or four size frames makes carbon (listed in your "real progress" list) cost effective to mass produce.
  • Commuters and all us here in the PNW tend to like road disc brakes. Rims are expensive and time consuming to replace.
  • 10 speed gave us the ubiquitous 12-25 cassette with the 16 cog; pretty nice all purpose gear cluster. The more aged group of baby boomer cycling enthusiasts are enjoying the addition of the 27 tooth cog without sacrifice when 11 speed came out a couple years ago.

On the other side of things:
  • people argue endlessly about brifters. I mean, the lack of halfway decent entry level road bikes in the $500-$1000 range is wholly due to brifters, which after almost 25 years have failed to come down much in price.
  • Dual pivot brakes are a wash; roadies have never really used brakes much and the single pivots weren't that bad anyway. If anything, the advance in rim braking belongs to brake pad compounds more than anything.
  • Go to the commuter forum and mention carbon, I dare you.
  • You like cassette hubs but not too many gears and you think 8+ internal gear hubs, which no recreational fitness cyclist uses, is a "real progress"?
  • Compact road drivetrains used to be called "touring cranks" and they have been around ever since multi-ring cranksets were invented.

My argument is all these groupings of technologies into "real progress" and "marketing crap" are all arbitrary. Go ahead. Show me a consistent system I can use to group the next new technology that doesn't involve your particular collection of bikes or what era you, in particular, were born to.
compact frameset geometry became common before carbon fiber became affordable(but it definitely helped CF frameset prices drop).

I'm thankful for the 9,10,and 11 speed advances. Even the best shifting front derailleur system is a weak link, but a necessary evil.
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Old 12-02-14, 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
You say that like it is a bad thing.
I want bicycle manufacturers, mechanics and salespeople to be able to make money too; the current state of affairs is death to most shops, even the best intentioned and hard-working. Working in a bicycle shop shouldn't necessarily be a near-minimum-wage proposition. If you ever go into a bicycle shop and have difficulty getting quality service, think about why.
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Old 12-02-14, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Raiden
I want bicycle manufacturers, mechanics and salespeople to be able to make money too; the current state of affairs is death to most shops, even the best intentioned and hard-working. Working in a bicycle shop shouldn't necessarily be a near-minimum-wage proposition. If you ever go into a bicycle shop and have difficulty getting quality service, think about why.
I support my shop. You are barking up the wrong tree. The reason UK shops have cheap parts is because it is against the law to fix prices there. A free market. Change the policy here and US shops can compete on a level playing field.
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Old 12-02-14, 11:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
The reason UK shops have cheap parts is because it is against the law to fix prices there. A free market.
That plus the larger don't go through distributors
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Old 12-02-14, 11:54 PM
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Originally Posted by BoSoxYacht
compact frameset geometry became common before carbon fiber became affordable(but it definitely helped CF frameset prices drop).

I'm thankful for the 9,10,and 11 speed advances. Even the best shifting front derailleur system is a weak link, but a necessary evil.
Yeah, sloping top tubes became feasible as soon as welded frames became popular. Started a little bit with steel, but really took over with aluminium. Most liked to stick with the horizontal top tube tradition for a while.

Seems like many race frames have nearly horizontal top tubes while many frames for the recreational rider are more compact.
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Old 12-02-14, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by StanSeven
That plus the larger don't go through distributors
Shimano does pedals direct in North America now but I didn't notice a price drop on them.
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Old 12-03-14, 05:04 AM
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Originally Posted by hueyhoolihan
parts are still readily available if i were to choose to have a 7-speed. i could even make up a nice 5-speed if i wanted to.
I run a 7sp Shimano HG on an 11sp hub using a Shimano 600 tri-color RD. Nothing obsolete about it, just a matter of choice.
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Old 12-03-14, 05:11 AM
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Originally Posted by LesterOfPuppets
Shimano does pedals direct in North America now but I didn't notice a price drop on them.
You should soon with the yen where it is. We are seeing it in the OE.
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Old 12-03-14, 07:14 AM
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When it comes to bicycles, all "improvements" beyond the first velocipede were and are "marketing crap." They still make velocipedes, so even those aren't obsolete (though they are mostly for little kids), and the latest Super Record equipped Pinarello is not necessarily any better. The point is, new developments can only be meaningful to the extent that they can be appreciated. I try not to be a retro-grouch, but the virtues of 11 cogs over 10 are negligible and practically worthless compared to the virtues of a drivetrain with variable gears over Fred Flintstone style pedaling, or some brakes over none at all.

While there are, from time to time, some misguided "improvements" (like the penny-farthing), I agree that it is generally ********ed to argue against advancements in design, but it's just as silly to argue that anyone is necessarily missing out on anything important by foregoing most of them, and it's annoying when marketers and ill-informed proselytizers insist upon widespread adoption.

Last edited by kbarch; 12-03-14 at 07:19 AM.
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Old 12-03-14, 07:35 AM
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11 speed is already obsolete, so are brakes.

This is the only thing worth riding.

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Old 12-03-14, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by thisisbenji
11 speed is already obsolete, so are brakes.

This is the only thing worth riding.

Let's do some hills!
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Old 12-03-14, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by OldsCOOL
Let's do some hills!
No problem, 30 RPM all day, all day!
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Old 12-03-14, 08:34 AM
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Originally Posted by thisisbenji
No problem, 30 RPM all day, all day!
Without pedals?
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Old 12-03-14, 08:36 AM
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Gearing doesn't look that high. Could be a little spinny down the hills tho.
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Old 12-03-14, 08:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Bandera
Without pedals?
You have to put your feet on the cranks.
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Old 12-03-14, 08:58 AM
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the bicycle market is worldwide. most people in the world don't buy 11 speed, 10 speed, or 9 speed.
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Old 12-03-14, 09:04 AM
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Anyone make their own cassettes? I tried it recently with a mix of sunrace and sram parts. I've discovered that 5 well chosen cogs are enough for commuting on flat roads in Shanghai. Although, most riders I see ride singlespeed or never change gears. I guess it all depends on your riding style.
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Old 12-03-14, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
I support my shop. You are barking up the wrong tree. The reason UK shops have cheap parts is because it is against the law to fix prices there. A free market. Change the policy here and US shops can compete on a level playing field.
It wasn't an accusation, just saying that the situation for bike shops is seriously screwed up right now (especially for us Americans). It's more a response to anyone who types 'boo hoo new bicycle parts are so expensive' into the internet.
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Old 12-03-14, 01:48 PM
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I seem to be the 'bike guy' at work. My workmates, who are generally athletic and earn a decent wage ask me for advice on bikes. None of these folks are racers. They are weekend pleasure riders and fair weather commuters.

The request for advice usually happens when they take their 10-year old road bike with a 9-speed drivetrain to their local shop for spring adjustments or a new chain.

They come back to me fussed because the shop told them that 9-speed parts are hard to find, are obsolete, and to upgrade their bikes to the new 11-speed standard would cost more than it is worth. The recommended solution is that the shop would give a small nominal credit for their bike as a trade-in, and that they should buy a new bike. From them.

Again, my workmates are not riding ancient beater bikes here, but 10-year old bikes with strong dual pivot brakes, integrated brake/shift levers, decent wheels and light alu framesets with carbon forks.

So what started out as a $75 chain replacement and tune-up turns into a $2,500 decision.

The steady 'progress' from 9 to 10 to 11 speed allows the shops and manufacturers to make this pitch.

So how is this hard sell not just marketing crap?
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Old 12-03-14, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
I seem to be the 'bike guy' at work. My workmates, who are generally athletic and earn a decent wage ask me for advice on bikes. None of these folks are racers. They are weekend pleasure riders and fair weather commuters.

The request for advice usually happens when they take their 10-year old road bike with a 9-speed drivetrain to their local shop for spring adjustments or a new chain.

They come back to me fussed because the shop told them that 9-speed parts are hard to find, are obsolete, and to upgrade their bikes to the new 11-speed standard would cost more than it is worth. The recommended solution is that the shop would give a small nominal credit for their bike as a trade-in, and that they should buy a new bike. From them.

Again, my workmates are not riding ancient beater bikes here, but 10-year old bikes with strong dual pivot brakes, integrated brake/shift levers, decent wheels and light alu framesets with carbon forks.

So what started out as a $75 chain replacement and tune-up turns into a $2,500 decision.

The steady 'progress' from 9 to 10 to 11 speed allows the shops and manufacturers to make this pitch.

So how is this hard sell not just marketing crap?
While I do believe there are benefits to running additional gears in the back, you hit it pretty much spot on the the majority of folks.
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Old 12-03-14, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by datlas
I highly doubt that 10 speed will become obsolete any time soon. Maybe in a few years you may have to use eBay for parts, much as current 9 speed users are likely doing now.

You can run a 10 speed cassette on 11 speed wheels, you need a spacer which likely comes with the wheels or can be had quite cheaply, so fear not.
I find 9 speed shifters, cassettes and derailleurs brand new on amazon and through vendors from my LBS.

Shimano still manufactures 7 speed cassettes, haven't been able to find new 7 speed shifters.

10 speeds will be around for a long time.
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Old 12-03-14, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
I seem to be the 'bike guy' at work. My workmates, who are generally athletic and earn a decent wage ask me for advice on bikes. None of these folks are racers. They are weekend pleasure riders and fair weather commuters.

The request for advice usually happens when they take their 10-year old road bike with a 9-speed drivetrain to their local shop for spring adjustments or a new chain.

They come back to me fussed because the shop told them that 9-speed parts are hard to find, are obsolete, and to upgrade their bikes to the new 11-speed standard would cost more than it is worth. The recommended solution is that the shop would give a small nominal credit for their bike as a trade-in, and that they should buy a new bike. From them.

Again, my workmates are not riding ancient beater bikes here, but 10-year old bikes with strong dual pivot brakes, integrated brake/shift levers, decent wheels and light alu framesets with carbon forks.

So what started out as a $75 chain replacement and tune-up turns into a $2,500 decision.

The steady 'progress' from 9 to 10 to 11 speed allows the shops and manufacturers to make this pitch.

So how is this hard sell not just marketing crap?
The obvious solution is to learn to self-wrench. Or you could do it for them/show them how in exchange for beer (or whatever your own vice of choice may be). 9-speed stuff isn't that hard to find at all. Chains certainly shouldn't be a problem.

It really sounds like their LBS is trying to take them for a ride. Maybe the biggest favour you could do these guys is direct them to a shop that won't try and pull that. Nobody at any of my 2-3 different locals has ever tried to upsell me on my late-90s 8spd Campy and that stuff is damn near gold dust.
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Old 12-03-14, 02:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
I seem to be the 'bike guy' at work. My workmates, who are generally athletic and earn a decent wage ask me for advice on bikes. None of these folks are racers. They are weekend pleasure riders and fair weather commuters.

The request for advice usually happens when they take their 10-year old road bike with a 9-speed drivetrain to their local shop for spring adjustments or a new chain.

They come back to me fussed because the shop told them that 9-speed parts are hard to find, are obsolete, and to upgrade their bikes to the new 11-speed standard would cost more than it is worth. The recommended solution is that the shop would give a small nominal credit for their bike as a trade-in, and that they should buy a new bike. From them.

Again, my workmates are not riding ancient beater bikes here, but 10-year old bikes with strong dual pivot brakes, integrated brake/shift levers, decent wheels and light alu framesets with carbon forks.

So what started out as a $75 chain replacement and tune-up turns into a $2,500 decision.

The steady 'progress' from 9 to 10 to 11 speed allows the shops and manufacturers to make this pitch.

So how is this hard sell not just marketing crap?
You know, I see these stories a lot on BF. Whereas IRL I have never in my life encountered a bike shop, or even heard stories from people of a bike shop, where trying to sell people who come in tune-ups on upgrades is a thing that's done. And it's not as though I don't hear complaints about local bike shops. This just isn't one of them. Every bike shop I have ever seen keeps 9-speed cassettes and chains in stock, because there are a lot of bikes out there with 9-speed drivetrains.

It's a wide world. There's no doubt that this happens. But by and large, I'm calling this as BS. These stories simply don't make sense from the business perspective of a bike shop. Getting people to accept the $75 for a tune-up is hard enough. Aggressively selling upgrades would be a disaster.

I don't believe you, Dave. I think you are, willfully or not, greatly inflating what you have heard to match up with your perception of reality. I don't believe you. Period.

Last edited by grolby; 12-03-14 at 02:20 PM.
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Old 12-03-14, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by grolby
You know, I see these stories a lot on BF. Whereas IRL I have never in my life encountered a bike shop, or even heard stories from people of a bike shop, where trying to sell people who come in tune-ups on upgrades is a thing that's done. And it's not as though I don't hear complaints about local bike shops. This just isn't one of them. Every bike shop I have ever seen keeps 9-speed cassettes and chains in stock, because there are a lot of bikes out there with 9-speed drivetrains.

It's a wide world. There's no doubt that this happens. But by and large, I'm calling this as BS. These stories simply don't make sense from the business perspective of a bike shop. Getting people to accept the $75 for a tune-up is hard enough. Aggressively selling upgrades would be a disaster.

I don't believe you, Dave. I think you are, willfully or not, greatly inflating what you have heard to match up with your perception of reality. I don't believe you. Period.
It's not BS , its the story used to convince your wife you need a new bike.
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