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Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?

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Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?

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Old 12-07-14, 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted by gsa103
The hardest part of your requirements is the totally arbitrary 60mm flange. Also, what's wrong with factory wheels?
Nothing wrong with factory wheels except spare parts availability and pricing. Factory wheels seem like the best choice for a low spoke count R wheel, but if you have a issue you have to wait for parts and replacement rims/parts are cost prohibitive IMO. The 60 MM spacing is not arbitrary, it is what I would want for a laterally stiff wheel for 2:1 lacing R wheel which is what my 2012 Fulcrum uses. If you want a laterally stiff wheel without 32 spokes you can get there with 2:1 lacing or a offset rim. I am not seeing aftermarket options in hubs or quality rims that compare to factory stuff. Reasonably priced parts,that will build into a light , laterally stiff , reliable, responsive wheel, where are they? . Most 11 speed hubs are a compromise , either you get narrow flange spacing to equalize spoke tension , which loses lateral wheel stiffness or if the flange spacing is wider NDS tension is questionable. Factory wheels have addressed this , aftermarket seems to be resistant.

Last edited by Fred Smedley; 12-07-14 at 07:58 AM.
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Old 12-07-14, 07:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
Nothing wrong with factory wheels except spare parts availability and pricing. Factory wheels seem like the best choice for a low spoke count R wheel, but if you have a issue you have to wait for parts and replacement rims/parts are cost prohibitive IMO. The 60 MM spacing is not arbitrary, it is what I would want for a laterally stiff wheel for 2:1 lacing R wheel which is what my 2012 Fulcrum uses. If you want a laterally stiff wheel without 32 spokes you can get there with 2:1 lacing or a offset rim. I am not seeing aftermarket options in hubs or quality rims that compare to factory stuff. Reasonably priced parts,that will build into a light , laterally stiff , reliable, responsive wheel, where are they? . Most 11 speed hubs are a compromise , either you get narrow flange spacing to equalize spoke tension , which loses lateral wheel stiffness or if the flange pacing is wider NDS tension is questionable. Factory wheels have addressed this , aftermarket seems to be resistant.
What absolute and utter nonsense. Complete malarkey. Gibberish of the highest order.

How are you determining what is "laterally stiff" beyond some magical mathematical precept you have arrived at in your own head?

The fastest and most demanding riders around the globe have not experienced the issues you proport to exist. Maybe things are different in the Marvel universe from which your requirements spring but the rest of the mortals in this dimension seem to be managing just fine.
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Old 12-07-14, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Bob Dopolina
What absolute and utter nonsense. Complete malarkey. Gibberish of the highest order.

How are you determining what is "laterally stiff" beyond some magical mathematical precept you have arrived at in your own head?

The fastest and most demanding riders around the globe have not experienced the issues you proport to exist. Maybe things are different in the Marvel universe from which your requirements spring but the rest of the mortals in this dimension seem doing be managing just fine.
Says the guy selling hubs that can't compete with Campy, Fulcrum and Shimano factory wheels.

How about known reputable wheel builders singing the praises of certain factory wheels saying they have a hard time getting there with available parts at the same price point. It's a issue. Look at the Fulcum , or Campy hubs, do you have anything similar? How about a C24 rim?
"The fastest and most demanding riders around the globe have not experienced the issues you proport to exist." Because they are riding factory wheels.

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Old 12-07-14, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
Says the guy selling hubs that can't compete with Campy, Fulcrum and Shimano factory wheels.

How about known reputable wheel builders singing the praises of certain factory wheels saying they have a hard time getting there with available parts at the same price point. It's a issue. Look at the Fulcum , or Campy hubs, do you have anything similar? How about a C24 rim?
"The fastest and most demanding riders around the globe have not experienced the issues you proport to exist." Because they are riding factory wheels.
I thought you had dug a deep enough hole with the first post.

Keep up the good work.
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Old 12-07-14, 08:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
Says the guy selling hubs that can't compete with Campy, Fulcrum and Shimano factory wheels.

How about known reputable wheel builders singing the praises of certain factory wheels saying they have a hard time getting there with available parts at the same price point. It's a issue. Look at the Fulcum , or Campy hubs, do you have anything similar? How about a C24 rim?
"The fastest and most demanding riders around the globe have not experienced the issues you proport to exist." Because they are riding factory wheels.
What are you even talking about?

Nothing you have posted is even remotely based in reality.

As for the hubs we sell? Guess where the sealed bearing hubs for Campagnolo/Fulcrum come from? Yup, Taiwan. There is nothing at all special about them.

There are several pro teams riding wheels that have parts derived from off the shelf OEM/ODM suppliers in Asia. This includes the holy trinity you seem to think possess magical wheel design/building powers.
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Last edited by Bob Dopolina; 12-07-14 at 09:27 AM.
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Old 12-07-14, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Bob Dopolina
What are you even talking about?

The sealed bearing hubs from Campagnolo/fulcrum are made in Taiwan. Nothing special there. FYI-I also used to manage a Campagnolo Service Center so i have more than a passing familiarity with the brand.

Factory wheels are built from hubs made in a hub factory, rims made in a rim factory and spokes made in a spoke factory. Guess what customer builders are using? In case you're not sure it would be hubs from a hub factory, rims from a rim factory and spokes from a spoke factory.

Brands may or may not own the factories making their component parts. No one makes their own spokes or nipples.

Custom builders also choose parts from various specialty factories and they make choices that determine the characteristics of their products.

Some brands may design one part of the wheel and buy the rest off the shelf. There are plenty of brands that do this including Campagnolo or Fulcrum.

This includes many of the wheels ridden by top professionals in the most important races.

As for what we sell, Novatec makes hubs for several of the boutique brands seen in the TdF and elsewhere. We have produced rims that have been ridden at Xcross worlds. Pillar spokes and nipples have numerous tour victories. Guess who makes the internal nipples for Campagnolo and the proprietary nipples for American Classic? Hint: fricken' Pillar.

Nothing you have posted is even remotely based in reality.
1.Who care where Campagnolo parts are made . I can't buy similar hubs or rims them unless I pay ridiculous prices from Shimano or Campy and then what for, so I can build a factory wheel at home, and at what price? Remember , this discussion is about wheel stiffness and and spoke tension that rivals factory wheels that makes a eleven speed wheel on par with 8/9/10

2.Sure factories build parts. Where can I buy a 60MM flanged hub with a extra large DS flange with a 2:1 drilling that will take a over the counter aero spoke under $300.00 ? Do you sell one?

3."Custom builders also choose parts from various specialty factories and they make choices that determine the characteristics of their products."

Where are all these custom hubs, spokes rims available for JOE SMOE builder that allows him to compete with a similar wheel at the same price point as the factory stuff? How about milled aluminum rims , Hybrid carbon AL offset rims. If they are available please provide a link. If you can build a wheel that can compete performance wise with over the counter parts at the same price point show us. the Novatec hubs you sell don't do this.

4. You can talk circles all you want, but until you can point to a retail site that will sell similar parts as the factory stuff with competitive pricing to the rest of the aftermarket world it's all song and dance. Novatec hubs with 38-19mm spacing and a 49mm flange diameter don't do that .
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Old 12-07-14, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
1.Who care where Campagnolo parts are made . I can't buy similar hubs or rims them unless I pay ridiculous prices from Shimano or Campy and then what for, so I can build a factory wheel at home, and at what price? Remember , this discussion is about wheel stiffness and and spoke tension that rivals factory wheels that makes a eleven speed wheel on par with 8/9/10

2.Sure factories build parts. Where can I buy a 60MM flanged hub with a extra large DS flange with a 2:1 drilling that will take a over the counter aero spoke under $300.00 ? Do you sell one?

3."Custom builders also choose parts from various specialty factories and they make choices that determine the characteristics of their products."

Where are all these custom hubs, spokes rims available for JOE SMOE builder that allows him to compete with a similar wheel at the same price point as the factory stuff? How about milled aluminum rims , Hybrid carbon AL offset rims. If they are available please provide a link. If you can build a wheel that can compete performance wise with over the counter parts at the same price point show us. the Novatec hubs you sell don't do this.

4. You can talk circles all you want, but until you can point to a retail site that will sell similar parts as the factory stuff with competitive pricing to the rest of the aftermarket world it's all song and dance. Novatec hubs with 38-19mm spacing and a 49mm flange diameter don't do that .
Jeebus, you have these false parameters and false metrics about factory built wheels that is both misplaced and misinformed. It borders on delusional.

Your straw man spoke tension argument is neither based in reality or backed up with evidence.

Give me specfic numbers WITH CONCRETE EXAMPLES and maybe, and I really mean maybe, it would be worthwhile entertaining your delusions.

To recap, many of the factory wheels you worship are made of the same parts you can buy online. Who do you think makes this stuff? Night tripping ferries?
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Old 12-07-14, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Bob Dopolina
Jeebus, you have these false parameters and false metrics about factory built wheels that is both misplaced and misinformed. It borders on delusional.

Your straw man spoke tension argument is neither based in reality or backed up with evidence.

Give me specfic numbers WITH CONCRETE EXAMPLES and maybe, and I really mean maybe, it would be worthwhile entertaining your delusions.

To recap, many of the factory wheels you worship are made of the same parts you can buy online. Who do you think makes this stuff? Night tripping ferries?
Great , show me where I can buy a hub with Campy dimensions online , a rim similar to a C-24 or Fulcum 3 and spokes nipples that fit them for less money than a prebuilt factory wheel. My Park tensiometer reads 11NDS and 14 DS , on my fulcrums, and this is on a WIDE 60MM flange, pretty close tension eh , need more precise number. How about you show us what a F162SB-10 24 hole hub built 2X into a Pacenti SL 23 or Hed Belguim or a ???? reads .

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Old 12-07-14, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
Great , show me where I can buy a hub with Campy dimensions online , a rim similar to a C-24 or Fulcum 3 and spokes nipples that fit them for less money than a prebuilt factory wheel.
If those were sincere questions I might actually do the google work for you.

Since I suspect that you will find some unquantified fault with any examples you were shown I'd rather spend that time and energy pretty much doing anything else.

Educate yourself and do your own leg work.
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Old 12-07-14, 10:13 AM
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i sense, that any minute, one or the other is going to crack like Indurain on the Les Arc stage of the '96 TDF.

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Old 12-07-14, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Bob Dopolina
If those were sincere questions I might actually do the google work for you.

Since I suspect that you will find some unquantified fault with any examples you were shown I'd rather spend that time and energy pretty much doing anything else.

Educate yourself and do your own leg work.
Nice sidestep, I've looked , I can't find them . They are not out there unless , they are buried in some catalog somewhere.
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Old 12-07-14, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Bob Dopolina
Jeebus, you have these false parameters and false metrics about factory built wheels that is both misplaced and misinformed. It borders on delusional.

Your straw man spoke tension argument is neither based in reality or backed up with evidence.

Give me specfic numbers WITH CONCRETE EXAMPLES and maybe, and I really mean maybe, it would be worthwhile entertaining your delusions.

To recap, many of the factory wheels you worship are made of the same parts you can buy online. Who do you think makes this stuff? Night tripping ferries?
"Here I come to save the day. Mighty Mouse is on the way."

Bike Hub Store has 2:1 drilled Taiwanese hubs with an oversize DS flange (no, not quite 60 mm) in both 8:16 and 9:18. He also has 27 hole rims for the 9:18 hubs in the highly respected Pacenti brand. He has the 27 hole Pacentis two ways, with evenly spaced spoke holes and with triplet-grouped spoke holes. He even has some wheels build from these parts for a very good price that look very much like Campys.

I have built with these and find tensions (not Park readings) in a ratio of about 0.8:1.0, similar to what you are asking for. Of course I lace the NDS radially with spoke heads out to further equalize the tensions.
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Old 12-07-14, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by rpenmanparker
"Here I come to save the day. Mighty Mouse is on the way."

Bike Hub Store has 2:1 drilled Taiwanese hubs with an oversize DS flange (no, not quite 60 mm) in both 8:16 and 9:18. He also has 27 hole rims for the 9:18 hubs in the highly respected Pacenti brand. He has the 27 hole Pacentis two ways, with evenly spaced spoke holes and with triplet-grouped spoke holes. He even has some wheels build from these parts for a very good price that look very much like Campys.

I have built with these and find tensions (not Park readings) in a ratio of about 0.8:1.0, similar to what you are asking for. Of course I lace the NDS radially with spoke heads out to further equalize the tensions.
I was talking about flange spacing (60mm) , not flange diameter. What hub are you referring to ?
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Old 12-07-14, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Herbie53
I thought you had dug a deep enough hole with the first post.

Keep up the good work.
Great information you present there . Keep up the good work!
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Old 12-07-14, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Bob Dopolina
Night tripping ferries?
lol
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Old 12-07-14, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Fred Smedley
I was talking about flange spacing (60mm) , not flange diameter. What hub are you referring to ?
I see that now. But I have a hard time believing you can get very close in tension even with 1:2 drilling with a 60 mm flange spacing on a 130 mm hub. The small penalty you take in stiffness going into the mid-50's spacing width is negligible. The idiosyncrasies that you value so highly in some factory-built, brand name wheels are more a detriment than a benefit. As you point out, parts availability and delivery for repair and replacement is horrendous. I would rather have a more readily available part even with a slight stiffness deficit. Besides, if you are so worried about stiffness, you can always "gauge-up" your spokes. With reasonably high tension on both sides due to the 1:2 drilling, it is not necessary to use DT Revolutions or Sapim Lasers to obtain a safe level of spoke elongation. At 90-120 kgF even straight gauge 2.0 mm spokes will stretch enough to provide security against routinely going slack and fatiguing prematurely. And they provide the stiffness you so dearly love as well. The extra weight of the heavier spokes is most likely offset by the lower weight of the hubs as compared to what brand name factories use.

I was referring to the Taiwanese road hubs sold on the Bike Hub Store web site.
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Old 12-07-14, 08:25 PM
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The requirement to fit 11 cogs into the limited space available presents a number of challenges. These have been met with technologies that were not used in wheels 20 years ago. This includes:
  • Specialized drillings in order to even out spoke tension.
  • Special hub flange designs that attempt to get the drive side spokes as far right as possible. This involves direct-pull spokes, and some very fine machining.
  • Stiff (and heavy) rims, that attempt to add some strength and integrity to a very challenging engineering task. You cannot build 11-speed wheels with the lightweight rims that were available in the 1980's.
This all involves specialized and highly engineered parts that need to work together. This is not off-the shelf stuff that you can find at a bike shop, or possibly even order.

The era of the small-time wheelbuilder or home hobbyist repairing wheels is over. This is a significant advantage to the industry, as pre-built wheels have a higher profit margin and faster turnover rate. If a rim is dented, due to the above, it makes more sense to replace the wheel.

The next generation of 12 speed wheels are simply not feasible using a spoked design.

Fortunately, there is still 16mm of space between the centerline of the hub and the edge of the freehub. If this could be reduced to zero, 4 more cogs could be fit. Each additional cog could be introduced at 7 year interval, rendering the previous generation of wheels obsolete.

Rigid carbon bladed wheels are the future.
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Old 12-07-14, 08:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
The requirement to fit 11 cogs into the limited space available presents a number of challenges. These have been met with technologies that were not used in wheels 20 years ago. This includes:
  • Specialized drillings in order to even out spoke tension.
  • Special hub flange designs that attempt to get the drive side spokes as far right as possible. This involves direct-pull spokes, and some very fine machining.
  • Stiff (and heavy) rims, that attempt to add some strength and integrity to a very challenging engineering task. You cannot build 11-speed wheels with the lightweight rims that were available in the 1980's.
This all involves specialized and highly engineered parts that need to work together. This is not off-the shelf stuff that you can find at a bike shop, or possibly even order.

The era of the small-time wheelbuilder or home hobbyist repairing wheels is over. This is a significant advantage to the industry, as pre-built wheels have a higher profit margin and faster turnover rate. If a rim is dented, due to the above, it makes more sense to replace the wheel.

The next generation of 12 speed wheels are simply not feasible using a spoked design.

Fortunately, there is still 16mm of space between the centerline of the hub and the edge of the freehub. If this could be reduced to zero, 4 more cogs could be fit. Each additional cog could be introduced at 7 year interval, rendering the previous generation of wheels obsolete.

Rigid carbon bladed wheels are the future.
Your report of the death of the spoked wheel is highly exaggerated.

Very fine 11-speed wheels can be built with inexpensive hubs and rims such as sold by BDop and Bike Hub Store. And 12 speeds would only require a few mm of extra OLD to be fully functional. If necessary the DS flange could be increased in diameter at a small weight penalty. You are really exaggerating the issues, not qualitatively sure, but quantitatively.
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Old 12-07-14, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
The era of the small-time wheelbuilder or home hobbyist repairing wheels is over.
I think this statement is a bit premature. People no doubt thought the same in the mid-90's, with the rise of Spinergy, and other non-spoke wheel designs. One-piece BMX wheels come to mind as well. But the spoked wheel never died, and in fact experienced a renaissance over the next 20 years.

Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
The next generation of 12 speed wheels are simply not feasible using a spoked design.
Again, I think this is premature. Adding another cog to 130mm spaced wheels may well be a bridge too far, assuming there aren't major changes in store for chains and cogs in the immediate future. But the move to wider spacing will probably make a bit more room, and as long as it's possible to keep cramming in more cogs by iterating current technology, that's probably what's going to happen. So far nothing has been able to improve enough on the spoked wheel to replace it, and I'm not convinced that the addition of more cogs will be sufficient to cause it to be abandoned unless the replacement technology really is superior.
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Old 12-07-14, 09:29 PM
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I've hand build plenty of decent 8/9/10 speed wheels over the last several years. The difference between 8/9/10sp and 11sp is negligible in terms of hub dimensions. I agree that the report of the death of hand built wheels is highly exaggerated. Hub designs keep getting better; hub materials keep getting better; spokes keep getting better. With current day hubs and spokes, wheels of today, even the hand built ones, are every bit as good as hubs of yesterday. And, if you want effectively larger flange spacing to get better bracing angle on the spokes, you can always increase the flange diameter and wa-la, stiffer wheels.

By the bye, if one should want to start a business "fixing" the spoke angle problems introduced by 11sp by making large flange road hubs, there's a person on this thread right here that can probably hook you up with an OEM supplier...
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Old 12-08-14, 12:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Dave Mayer
The requirement to fit 11 cogs into the limited space available presents a number of challenges. These have been met with technologies that were not used in wheels 20 years ago. This includes:
  • Specialized drillings in order to even out spoke tension.
  • Special hub flange designs that attempt to get the drive side spokes as far right as possible. This involves direct-pull spokes, and some very fine machining.
  • Stiff (and heavy) rims, that attempt to add some strength and integrity to a very challenging engineering task. You cannot build 11-speed wheels with the lightweight rims that were available in the 1980's.
This all involves specialized and highly engineered parts that need to work together. This is not off-the shelf stuff that you can find at a bike shop, or possibly even order.

The era of the small-time wheelbuilder or home hobbyist repairing wheels is over.
I think you are out of your mind.

Why do you care about how it was done 20 years ago. Things change.

Do you still use Windows 95?
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Old 12-08-14, 12:57 AM
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Originally Posted by datlas
I highly doubt that 10 speed will become obsolete any time soon. Maybe in a few years you may have to use eBay for parts, much as current 9 speed users are likely doing now.

You can run a 10 speed cassette on 11 speed wheels, you need a spacer which likely comes with the wheels or can be had quite cheaply, so fear not.
i still buy 8 speed cassettes from the shop!
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Old 12-08-14, 05:36 AM
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Originally Posted by mustang1
i still buy 8 speed cassettes from the shop!
I am willing to bet they are not 105 or Ultegra level.
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Old 12-08-14, 05:42 AM
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Originally Posted by datlas
I am willing to bet they are not 105 or Ultegra level.
I'm willing to bet they work just fine, otherwise.

My 7sp 12-28hg does well with the Shimano 600 RD.
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Old 12-08-14, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by BoSoxYacht
I think you are out of your mind.

Why do you care about how it was done 20 years ago. Things change.

Do you still use Windows 95?
What? I am agreeing with you! To prepare for the next generation of 12, 13 etc. speed wheels we need solutions that were not available 20 years ago, or perhaps even now.

Carbon blades or carbon disc wheels are the answer. The freehub has to get wider to accomodate more cogs. Fortunately, rigid carbon wheel structures will allow the freehub to extend right up to the middle of the rear stays. This will allow 4 more cogs to the current 11-speed system. 15 cogs in total. Since a cog has to be added every 7 years, this solution allows 28 more years of bicycle industry progress.

This wheel type tends to be expensive and heavy. And unstable in cross winds. And these wheels tend to catastrophically self-destruct if even slightly damaged. Adding mounts for disc brakes adds another challenge.

But the bike industry must rise to this technical challenge, just as it did for 11-speed drivetrains.
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