cutters

This is my top 5 for the 2005 Tour.

#1) Armstrong (Lance could win the Tour with one leg tied behind his back.)

#2) Vinokurov (He's motivated after being hurt last year.)

#3) Ullich (Year after year, the biggest talent, and disappointment.)

#4) Landis (I hope Phonak will be strong enough to help Flyod in the mountains.)

#5) Julich (If Basso doesn't have the legs after his Giro performance, Bobby J could lead CSC.)

The year of the Americans!

Walter

Until/unless he's beaten its hard to pick against LA. That's a bettor's logic but it's valid.

I don't agree that Ullrich is the greatest talent despite LA playing mind games by saying he is and then the chorus begins to echo. JU cannot climb as explosively as LA that's a consistently obvious and fatal flaw.

1. LA
2. Basso (hopefully putting to bed the idea you have to be a specialist)
3. Ullrich
4. Unknown TBA
Wildcard: Cunego (see notes for Basso)

FWIW

Jakey

1. Ullrich: This is his last chance to beat Armstrong, and he'll come ready to play.
2. Armstrong: I think if he hadn't signed a new contract, he wouldn't even be racing this year
3. Vino: I think he's stronger than a Basso who will have just ridden the Giro.

ljb61

I think this may be the year 2 Americans stand on the podium.
1. Lance, unless he gets sick or has a bad crash no one is as strong
2. Jan, I think he will do better than last year
3. Levi Lepheimer, Maybe a longshot but I think he will really do well with his new team. He looked strong on Brasstown Bald in the TDG.

Bikeophile

I too think Lance will likely win. But I do think that Cunego has a better shot than most are giving him credit for...I mean he's young...but man what a talent!

I wonder if Jan even finishes in the top five. After 7 years of disappointment I wonder if he has any fire left?

Iron Chef

Is Phonak going to be in the Tour? I thought they were out due to some disciplinary action.

ljb61

Yes, Phonak will be at the Tour. For a while it did not look good for them to be in the pro-tour, but lucky for Landis they were allowed in.

26mi235

From what I hav heard, Ullrich is better prepared this year. I expect that the most likely scenario is LA vs JU, but others will have a say. However, I do not expect the others to be lead by Cunego; last year they still had the Seaco dominance of the Giro, but with other Pro Teams showing up it was clear that they were not on the same level this years -- the bar was raised. And the raised bar will be higher in the Tour and Cunego was not up to the bar in the Giro.

There are a set of other contenders, lead by the top from last year, although it appears that Basso has improved on his weakness (TT) while Kloden is not yet in peak form so look more to the '03 podium to that team's contribution. Landis, Leipheimer and Julich are all long shots with clear chances from the same school of "good climber, good TT rider". Of course, the other teams are not coming in empty handed starting with Heras.

skydive69

He may come ready to play, but he is not good enough to beat the man!

fishigan

Is the TDF the only race LA does all year?

26mi235

You are kidding, aren't you? If not, then you know very little about the sport of bicycle racing at the top level. To call it his focus, however, it easily correct and probably an understatement.

fishigan

I know he does other races, but seldom do I hear mention of them.
I am new to the sport. I watch the races when they are on. I like Basso. But I don't know where to go to get all of the up to date info. I check out cyclingnews .com
But you guys seem to have more info about all the riders in general. What are good places to check out to get this info? I am a good season away from attempting any kind of race, but I would certainly like to do it next year. Maybe even this year.

jkoman

I predict Telecom will not bring Zabel...the team will ride for Jan...Jan will pressure LA more than at any previous time...LA will miss Slava as Jan will be closer than ever...I hate to say this but in the mountains LA and his ability to change tempo will PROBABLY beat Jan.

gcasillo

Landis will not finish in the top 10. Botero and/or Pereiro are more likely candidates from Phonak. Pena, too.

roadgator

i vote ullrich for first, mostly becuse i want the tour to be a little different this year, unlike the last 6.

if he shows up in shape, motivated and with T-mobile behind him, he will defietly be a force to be reconed with.

looking back, he was the strongest man in the 2003 tour (especialy considering how he dominated the first TT), but his bianchi squad was weak. if he were with t-mobile that year, he would have won. sure, lance still wone, but he did it through his team and tenacity more than pure strength.

Marge

for great cycling coverage check out: https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport and click on cycling

fishigan

Thanks Marge. I'll be able to increase my knowledge base thru a few sites now.

Crack'n'fail

I think Armstrong and Ullrich will be the top two and that the third position on the podium will be some dark horse that we're not really considering.

I'm pulling for Armstrong, but it would be cool for Ullrich to finally get the win with Armstrong right on his heels. Armstrong would lose nothing of his legacy, but Ullrich's legacy would increase exponentially, we could focus on his wins instead of his eternal seconds.

skydive69

Of course the tdf is not exactly a race were you would expect a "dark horse" to emerge.

oneradtec

Skydive...I tend to agree that it is not likely that a dark horse will win the tour. That said...there have been years where certain dark horses emerged as real challengers...and even made it on the podium. A few that come to mind....

Mayo and Zubeldia in 2003
Mejia, Jaskula and Rominger in '93
Chiappucci in '90(who is this crazy Italian that attacks constantly?)
Riis in '96(everyone thought Indurain would win his 6th)
Julich in '98
Kloden in 2004

How about Chris Horner becoming a dark horse this year? I'm not saying he can win...but I think he has the talent to get a top 10 for sure. I hear is is riding the Tour de Suisse in June...and if he shows good form there then his team will consider him for their Tour roster. I never thought of Landis and Leipheimer as any more talented than Horner. Chris can ride at a very high level in Europe as we have seen when he was riding at the front during a recent world's...near the end of the race after more than 230 kilometers. That's amazing for someone who had been riding short U.S. domestic races all year. No other U.S. based domestic racer would have even finished such a long hard race that included the best one day racers in the world. I would love to see Mr. Horner do the Tour this year. I honestly believe that he could do a top 10. Leipheimer can do a top 5 this year. Julich's time trialing could get him a top 10 this year. CSC will do well in the team TT(maybe even win it!)...plus there will be two other individual TT's that Bobby J. should excel in. Bobby can also climb pretty well. This could be a good tour for Bobby J and the Americans.

Crack'n'fail

So, you all had Vinokourov picked for the Podium(you will notice I said finish third, not win) in '03? Basso and Kloden in '04? Rumsas in '02? For that matter, Armstrong in '99?

skydive69

Good points one. I will be watching every day!

26mi235

Like Kloden or Basso? (especially Kloden).

doctorSpoc

don't know about Chris Horner... last i read is that Saunier Duval almost sent him packing for not performing... and since then he's been completely off the radar.

..i'll give my top 5 after the Dauphiné Libéré and Tour de Suisse... as it stands i don't see Armstrong on the podium though... guess we'll see after the Dauphiné Libéré but based on his year so far... i don't even see him finishing.

i'll give my number 1 though... Jan Ullrich.. he has the team and his best form in years.

Olyroller

Once again Horner can't cut living and racing with the Euros