TXCiclista

Jan's almost 3 minutes down on Kloden. If Kloden decides to go for the podium, can Jan reasonably get it? Not sure about Kloden's TT skills, but it seems like he could limit his loses tomorrow if he decides to. I know he's behind Jan, and that works for me. On the other hand, he can still help Jan and possibly hold his place. Curious what your thoughts are...

roadbuzz

The only stage that I'd definitely give odds on JU picking up significant time over Kloeden would be stage 20, a 55km (34 mi) ITT w/no rated climbs. Still, it's not *that* far, so the next 2 mountainous stages will determine whether JU can make the podium. I'm thinking he will.

hollow

As well as Kloden is riding I don't see how Jan can pull almost three minutes from him on the TT. It's hard to tell anything from the prologue, but Kloden only finished 2 seconds back from Jan. You can't tell anything from last year's TT either because Kloden abandoned before that (on the same stage Beloki crashed out). He only lost around 40 seconds today to Jan, so I'd be surprised if he lost 3 minutes on Saturday.

Tomorrow's stage is another story. They may think that Jan can pull back time on Basso in the TT(Basso lost 6 minutes to Jan on the TT last year), so they may not see the need to attack. I think T mobile may think that both Jan and Kloden can overtake Basso on the TT and not waste their energy tomorrow.

But every mountain stage has seen a huge tempo, so it will probably work that way again tomorrow. With the requisite attack from Virenque, that is.

brent_dube

Ullrich is bigger, which means he must have a higher power to weight ratio to climb better than Kloden, which means that, in theory, he should do FAR better on the final ITT.
My guess is that Ullrich will at least get 3rd overall.

TXCiclista

I'm not convinced he climbed all that better than Kloden though. Sure, he beat him, but "only" by 40 seconds. I think it's reasonable to assume that the grade on this TT will be comparable to the length on the next. If anything, I would say this TT was harder. I honestly don't think Jan can get 3 minutes on Kloden in the TT, *unless* Kloden gives it to him (back to my original post). If Basso holds on and Kloden decides he wants the podium, I think Jan is SOL. So... will Kloden work to put Jan in 3rd or take it himself. I know what they both say and they're both for the other LOL So what do you think will happen?


PS The point about Basso losing big time in the TT may be the key. It may be Lance surrounded by T-Mobile (which would be a shame since Basso worked so hard)

brent_dube

40 seconds was still good considering the TT had 1000metres in altitude gain, and was only 15km. The final TT might take about 70 minutes rather than 40 minutes.

TXCiclista

Nah. At 55k, the leaders will come in right at an hour. Last year's was 49k and Millar finished in under 55 and it was raining. I dunno, I don't tink Ulrich can get that 3 minutes back if Kloden decides he wants it...

brent_dube

I thought it was 58km but you're right that it is 55km. The final TT last year was on a completely flat course with a tailwind, and nearly broke the record for fastest ITT in Tour history. (Ullrich's average speed halfway through was over the record, I think) This final ITT is hilly and will probably be under 50km/hour. (which would mean bigger time gaps, like in the Galleac TT last year)

Crack'n'fail

It all depends on how Kloden responds to the long hilly stage tomorrow after a hard individual effort in the TT. I have no doubt that Jan is just coming into his best form of the Tour. Kloden is less experienced, so he could start to fade. If so, Jan will overtake him regardless. If he doesn't fade it will be hard for Jan, but I think he will overtake them both and get his usual 2nd. I'm pulling for him to do it.

Crack'n'fail

P.S. Let's not forget that Jan is a much stronger time trialist in flat rolling terrain than in an uphill TT. We all remember what he did to Lance when he dehydrated last year, and Lance was still second. We could see a devestating ride by Jan, he'll have nothing to lose and everything to gain, just hope for his sake that it isn't raining. Lance and Jan will ride everyone else into the ground.

kerank

How bad do you guys think Riis wants Basso to beat Ullrich, or for Kloden to take over as team leader for T-Mobile? I wonder if Riis is bitter, at all, about 1997.

lotek 

I don't think Bitterness is what is driving Riis. I think we are seeing the first
(ok maybe 2nd) real guru when it comes to race tactics.
Both Godfoorte and Pevenage have said that Kloden doesn't want
the leadership, he crumbles under it, performs poorly.
That said he is a very good rider, he probably can tt with the best of em.
If Kloden wants it, Jan won't be able to pull it back.
As for Basso, he has been working on TT skills, and I think he will do better
on the ITT than everyone thinks. I'm betting he holds onto his podium spot.
Look for him to put in a blistering stage tomorrow, with CSC and USPS
driving everyone into the ground.

Marty

don d.

I'd like to read about this. Where can I find these quotes? Thx.

lotek 

Don,
give me a bit to find them, I'm thinking I read it after Jan blew up
in the Pyreenes. I'll find the link and post it.

Marty

geist

I'd like to see Jan crush Kloden and Basso over the next two days.

lotek 

Don

Here is the quote:
the full article is here:
https://www.procycling.com/news_archive.aspx?ID=296

Marty

don d.

How long did it take you to find that?

This is interesting because when Kloden won Paris-Nice, no mean feat, he was being groomed as a GT contender. He has never quite lived up to his potential. But one must never forget that he has always been Jan's main man in the mountains, so you know he can climb. He did quite well yesterday too, thank you very much. We'll see how he does on Stage 19. Does he want something now? That could be the difference.

That article kind of gives sense to one view of this years tour. With Jan playing the part that Vino played last year, Kloden doesn't really have to take responsibility. All he has to do is what Jan did last year-follow the wheels and wait for opportunity.

And with a Director Sportif that goes around saying these kinds of things in public, it's no wonder he has so little contact with his riders. Still, I don't envy him. He's got one rider, Jan, who has his own director sportif, and obviously Kloden isn't too open to direction either.

Devil

I think Jan can do it.. he is my second favorite GC man in this Tour, and I hope he does.

TXCiclista

Hmmm. If I didn't misread today's stage, Kloden, Ulrich and Basso all finished together. Time bonuses aside, I guess that means Jan has to beat Basso or Kloden in the TT if he has any chance of getting a podium. To be honest, I like Jan, but I honestly don't feel like he's working for it so I think he doesn't deserve the podium. High pace or not, he should have made a break today to prove he wanted it. I'm disappointed in the Kaiser this tour and if it ends up Armstrong, Basso and Kloden, I won't shed a tear. Sorry Jan.

Devil

Let's not forget that Jan took 6 minutes out of Basso in stage 12 last year. He is currently only 3'59" behind Basso.

TXCiclista

Good point. OTOH, he was only 61 seconds behind Lance last year. I know Lance had a bad year, but I think 2003 was a good year for Jan. This year, it ain't so good (so far). I'm not convinced Jan has the fitness level he needs. Basso has been keeping up (for the most part) with a better-than-2003 Lance. I could be proven wrong, but I fear Jan will be watching the awards ceremonies from the sidelines...

brent_dube

70 minutes.
I think Ullrich can grab second

hollow

I guess it's a good thing that Jan wasn't on Telekom last year, then, because Kloden abandoned on stage nine and would have missed a lot of the mountains.