USAZorro

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diphthong

we're in the mountains now! not the leg-shattering first day in the alps that we occasionally get.
some contenders (contador comes to mind) will be looking to stamp early authority on the rest
while others will be happy to bide their time and follow wheels & attacks. which of the other contenders
(besides andy schleck) have the chutzpah to launch a preemptive strike on contador?

MarkSch

I'm really looking forward to this stage. My parents used to live in Geneva, so this was a common area to ride for me.

Raced the European triathlon circuit for a couple years in late 80s / early 90s and the last race I did included the Morzine to Avoriaz climb as the end to the cycling leg....then we ran an cross-country 10K up and down the ski area...will bring back memories

SunSwingsLow

I am thinking the attacks will far more serious here than even befoer the tour made this MTF. Considering the field got some time gaps in stage 3 that i dont think anyone fully anticipated.

I cant wait to see Contador fly without a team manager holding him back. Vino will most likely be his body guard until its time to really launch and who will AS have with him now that FS is out.

diphthong

if contador ramps it up again-like last year-on the first major mountain stage and gains 30 seconds+ on all the other contenders,
he will crack their spirit again and relegate them all to racing for second place. oh sure, there's still more than half the race left
but psychologically and physiologically pulling a 'lance' on everyone again won't help their resolve.

daytonian

I look for Contador to get 30 secs to 1 minute back here. This is a small version preview of where guys will be on the Tourmalet.

msu2001la

I too think there will be some serious moves here, especially on the last climb. Not a crazy hard climb, but enough to separate anyone having a tough day.

SunSwingsLow

Ill be surprised if Lance finishes within 1:15 of Contador tommorow.

DXchulo

Say goodbye to the pretenders. I hope Alberto goes on the attack. You know he wants to. It's been a tough first week and there are bound to be some tired guys.

SunSwingsLow

Whats the avg. grade on the final climb?

OrionKhan

I agree. I think AC will attack near the top. Maybe a couple of km to go. Just enough to get him even with AS and within 30 seconds or so of Cadel.

cthenn

Stage 8 climbs
Km 24.0 - Côte de la Petite Joux - 2.3 km of 4.3% - Category 4
Km 73.0 - Côte de Grésin - 4.3 km of 3.9% - Category 4
Km 154.5 - Col de la Ramaz - 14.3 km of 6.8% - Category 1
Km 168.0 - Les Gets - 3.9 km of 4.8% - Category 3
Km 189.0 - Morzine-Avoriaz - 13.6 km of 6.1% - Category 1 (SEE PROFILE BELOW)




Average only 6.1% but long stretch of 7.5% in the middle. Look for AC to fly the coop at that point. I suspect he will try to put time into everyone else. Depending on how hard he pushes it, I'm guessing around a minute at most on everyone except Andy Schleck. I hope LA can hang around, but I think tomorrow he will be exposed as a pretender.

cthenn

Here's the profile from another website. Slightly different. I wonder if it really is 11% for a whole K. That's a long ways!

DXchulo

I doubt AC wants the jersey yet, so he should attack just hard enough so that only Schleck can follow. That or give a break 3-5 minutes.

chasm54

Looking forward to this one. Astana looked strong yesterday and if I were Contador I'd be looking to make some serious gains on the final climb. My fearless prediction is Contador gaining a couple of minutes on Basso and Schleck, with Wiggins and Armstrong a bit further back and Evans struggling.

Stanger

Unlike last year, we will be able to see if Armstrong can stay on Contador's wheel, or if he really has lost it.

reef58

Seems to me someone like Sastre or Basso may want to attack on the first Cat1 climb although Basso isn't known for his descending skills. They have a lot of time to make up, and few opportunities. I doubt anyone can keep up with Contador's initial acceleration, but the others will have to try and tempo away. For some reason I don't think AC puts big time in Lance tomorrow. I will go out on a limb and say Andy cracks, LA and AC finish within 15 seconds. Cadel is third among the GC contenders. I think Lance gets dropped Tuesday, but I am subject to change my mind.

Richard

Stanger

What if the field keeps a higher pace than usual, could this wear down a couple of the strong climbers and make for an unexpected stage?

JoelS

I don't think it's steep enough for much in the way of attacks. AC likes it much steeper before he goes. Likely to see some high general pace type of riding to whittle the field down and drop those GC guys that are 'off' for the day. Especially since Monday is a rest day.

kimconyc

Does anyone know if Contador (even when he was riding for ONCE/Liberty Seguros) has ever had a bad mechanical (like a puncture at the base of a climb) and how he responded to a situation like that?

kimconyc

Also, I like the fact that the silent assassin (Menchov) is totally under the radar at this point and pretty much has been all year.

SunSwingsLow

Im wondering if we might see Saxo go to the front and try to take it to the field to take some of AC's snap away on the final climb.

USAZorro

Rhetorical question: Egoi, you're now down 13 minutes on GC, and you can fly the coop to take mountain points without being chased down. Are you in this Tour to win polka dots, or are you stuck being Sammy's lieutenant in the mountains? My fantasy team is counting on you.

I anticipate the pace will get ramped up on the final climb. Sastre needs to try something, as do the Liquigas GC men, and to a lesser extent, Armstrong, Rogers and Sammy Sanchez. A mountain stage that conventional wisdom says doesn't suit Contador, is a natural place for them to try an attack.

SunSwingsLow

Thank You.

I think it will be to early in the climb to make much of a difference. I dont see any of the contendors going that far from the finish.

diphthong

the cream has risen to the top rather quickly, considering the race
(at the conclusion of stage 7) hasn't properly hit the alps yet.
out of the top 38 riders on gc (roughly 6 minutes back or less),
less than a baker's dozen would not be considered "all-rounders"
or stage race gc threats. i think bodes well for the eventual top ten
placings and the quality of attacks and racing. even if contador has
things sewn up relatively early, it's gonna be a dogfight for places 2-10.