Okay, you have 5 and a half weeks you have a bunch of stuff, and don't want to take too much but you also don't want to forget anything.
Other than yourself your bike, what in the vast experience of touring did you find was the most essential item you haul with you? I'm paring down my pile of stuff for the panniers. It may be over kill but I have already packed one pannier with 3 bike shorts, socks, t-shirts, 2 long sleave shirts. I have a wool sweater, tights, and a pair of shorts for modesty and a pair of wind pants. That's about it for clothing. I have the tent, sleeping bag, cook stove, fuel bottles, cookset, cup, sleeping mat, poncho, wind shirt. Then I"m looking at stuff like camera/cameras, maps and some tools. What am I missing?