Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Yuma, AZ
Bikes: 2005 Specialized Roubaix Elite, 2005 Specialized FSR XC Comp, 2008 Blue T16, 2009 Blue RC8, Fetish Cycles Road Bike
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Typically, average speed is a horrible gauge of fitness. There are dozens of things that will play to average speed.
If it's not on a closed course with controlled conditions (maybe track or trainer), there's little consistency from one ride to the next. Other than closed course/conditions, the only real consistently measurable cycling number is power output. Everything else is environmentally dependent.
On the other hand, as has been mentioned, you've dropped your kilometers nearly in half from your peak months. You're guaranteed to see drop in fitness in 3 months. You probably started feeling it within 2-3 weeks of cutting back.
Envision, Energize, Enable