Sorry for the delay. We have been quite busy here--house shopping--and one computer died. Given that the boss is surfing for homes all of the time it leaves little time for Bike Forums.
The theme for this post is the evidence that vehicular cycling is safer than alternative theories/paradigms/strategies. More specifically, what is the scientific evidence that supports vehicular cycling as
(1) an effective accident reduction strategy
(2) a strategy that is better than the alternatives?
So notice that (1) is different from (2). Question (1) asks, "How do we scientifically know that this is an effective strategy relative to just riding and learning?" Question (2) asks, "Given the other well-defined strategies, What is the evidence that implementing VC is the best option?" Feel free to address either. Note that this is not about J. Forester.
Seriously, wouldn't we rather talk about safer cycling than some guy?
Anecdotal evidence, while helpful to describe a characteristic observed in empirical data, is generally not considered scientific. So please use it sparingly. A theoretical discussion of cycling theory is interesting, but since we are searching for empirical backing for those theories, we should only introduce it in the context of empirical evidence.
The motivation was a recent thread on J. Forester where there was a discussion of the evidence used to support vehicular cycling as an effective accident reduction tool and there was a disagreement on the value of the evidence presented. Long story short, it turns out that Effective Cycling (6th Edition, ~pages 257-278) doesn't really provide enough details for me to evaluate.
The argument in Effective Cycling as I understand it, goes roughly like this ...
(1) we can show that experience matters
(2a) we have information on numbers of accidents by their characteristics
(2b) we have an understanding how to avoid certain classes of these accidents
(3) effective cycling instruction speeds up the learning process of traffic-safe cycling
Presumably J. Forester is talking about vehicular cycling when he writes the effective cycling program.
I recall explicitly reading some research that I-Like-To-bike referenced, but I did not find it in the expected section. It is probably on his website someplace. I did notice ILTB link an article at the end of the aforementioned thread, perhaps it leads to the online source.
Since the "good book" did not have the details, I will follow ILTB's link. If that doesn't get the article, I'll surf for it.