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  1. #1
    dlk
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    how much colder will it get? or will it?

    this is my first winter riding and paying close attention to the temperature on a daily basis, so I'd like to have some idea of what to expect in the upcoming months. I'm in new york, so can anyone in the north east give me an idea of if it will get any worse than it's already been? looking at the temp averages on weather.com, it seems like temps will hold for a couple weeks, and then start to go up at the beginning of february. does that seem about right?

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    I don't know if you're a native of New York or not and I know NY is not "New England". But as a long time Northeaster I can assure you that we are not fully in the clear until about April 15th. We can get a huge blizzard with icy cold winds in early April every once in a while. That said it can also warm up mid-January and not snow again until nearly March.

    As Mark Twain said about the weather in this region, "If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait a minute."

    Keep your winter stuff handy through mid-April. Expect it to hit 10〫F (or below) a few more times and average somewhere around 34〫F overall.

    BTW the best way to ensure one more blizzard and/or cold spell is to pack all your cold weather gear away and remove your studded snow tires.

    But if you're thinking about, "when will it end?" now, in early January, you need to slightly adjust your thinking or it will feel like a really loooooooong time before it's warm again.

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    Senior Member Jim from Boston's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by buzzman View Post
    ...But if you're thinking about, "when will it end?" now, in early January, you need to slightly adjust your thinking or it will feel like a really loooooooong time before it's warm again.
    When my young son would ask in the car, "How far?" or "How much longer?," I would tell him, "Road warriors don't ask questions like that. All a road warrior wants to know is where are we going and how are we going to get there." ;-)

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    dlk
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    ha, well actually, I've been here for 6 years and before that, chicago, so I'm used to cold and random weather, but I seriously just couldn't remember how long the coldest of winter goes for! I was in chicago for the holidays and realized it hadn't gotten nearly that cold in ny all winter. to me it seems like temps have been not so bad at all in ny. I'm just hoping it will stay that way--not that it will be spring in Feb!

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    dlk
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    ok, maybe I should be more clear. I'm not wondering when winter will end. I'm wondering if the actual temperatures will get much worse (in general, of course there will be the random really really cold day or horrible blizzard) than what we've already experienced. I bought some expensive ski gloves I haven't yet had use for, and if it's going to stay about the same, I'd rather have the money than the gloves.

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    Don't know about NY, but here in Chicago the worst is yet to come. Jan. and Feb. are when winter really starts to kick your ass around here.

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    Car-Free Flatlander Stacy's Avatar
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    New York winters are all over the place. I remember a couple of years ago, when we had the transit strike, temperatures dropped to just above zero. But I also remember wearing shorts last January or February because the temperature was in the 60s.

    About four years ago, when I first returned to cycling, we had a long cold stretch where the temperature didn't go above freezing for three weeks. Except for a narrow shipping channel in the middle the East River and the Hudson Rivers pretty much froze over. I think they actually had to rescue a small commuter ferry that got stuck in the ice. Temperature wise that's probably about as miserable as it gets.

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    Senior Member tjspiel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadCapsule View Post
    Don't know about NY, but here in Chicago the worst is yet to come. Jan. and Feb. are when winter really starts to kick your ass around here.
    That's generally true in Minneapolis too. I believe this past December was cooler than average but we didn't have any really, truly, nasty, bitter cold weather that is always a possibility this time of year. By that I mean 20 or more below with high winds.

    The average high drops until we get to about January 20th, then starts to climb. But it's entirely possible that we could see colder weather in early March than we've seen so far this winter. It's also possible (though unlikely) that we've already had our coldest weather.

    Outdoor ice rinks tend to close here after the second or third weekend in February and ice houses must be off the lakes (during the evening anyway) by March 1st. I know from experience that's difficult to keep up an ice rink after mid February. Cold weather still happens, but so do thaws.
    If you're not riding with a psychedelic gecko on your shirt, you ARE having a substandard experience.

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    Long Distance Cyclist Machka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlk View Post
    this is my first winter riding and paying close attention to the temperature on a daily basis, so I'd like to have some idea of what to expect in the upcoming months. I'm in new york, so can anyone in the north east give me an idea of if it will get any worse than it's already been? looking at the temp averages on weather.com, it seems like temps will hold for a couple weeks, and then start to go up at the beginning of february. does that seem about right?

    I don't know what's available in the US, but Canada has at least two decent weather sites:

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html ... click on Historical Weather to get the trends.

    http://www.theweathernetwork.com/ ... click on Weather and Seasonal Outlooks for estimated seasonal trends.

    Where I live, I don't expect the temperatures to go up till mid-March. In fact, I expect to go into a -40 deep freeze from about January 25th to about February 15th.

    Oh, but about the gloves ... you don't need really expensive gloves to keep warm. Get wool fliptops and/or some basic ski gloves you'd acquire from Walmart. Combine them with mini-gloves, and you're set ... all for about $10.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlk View Post
    this is my first winter riding and paying close attention to the temperature on a daily basis, so I'd like to have some idea of what to expect in the upcoming months. I'm in new york, so can anyone in the north east give me an idea of if it will get any worse than it's already been? looking at the temp averages on weather.com, it seems like temps will hold for a couple weeks, and then start to go up at the beginning of february. does that seem about right?
    To answer your question well is yes and no IF and this is a BIG if we get lucky temps a stay about what your seeing in that chart but don"t bet on it we most likely will get some serious cold sub zero temps in Jan and Feb . and aa teaser of a shot a warm weather sometime in Feb .And ya were not in the clear until aprial but it should be better than now in late march unless we get clonnered with 2 feet a snow Iam in Michigan ur weather is as bad or worse than ours I think . Just learn to suffer with the rest of us

  11. #11
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    January traditionally is the coldest month but lots of bad storms happen in February. It starts getting warmer in six weeks. Don't feel bad. Boating is my other passion
    You're just trying to start an argument to show how smart you are.

  12. #12
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    If, as predicted, the earth is entering a cooling phase, then I'd suggest that temperatures are likely to remain below levels seen in recent years.

    Bundle up!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stacy View Post
    New York winters are all over the place. I remember a couple of years ago, when we had the transit strike, temperatures dropped to just above zero. But I also remember wearing shorts last January or February because the temperature was in the 60s.
    All winters are all over the place and there is no way of predicting it. You can only prepare to ride in as many conditions as possible.

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    You made me curious so I looked up the actual data for here in Rochester,ny

    Basically xmas to end of february is the cold time. Definite warming from there; STATISTICALLY! Count on it being warm and you will freeze your nadgers off on some given day.

    We're forecast for overnite lows below 0 in a few days
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    Cat3.*....Cat2 asmallsol's Avatar
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    You can't just go off of averages, because thats just the average. Average winter temps are not a problem, its those random systems that can throw you off. Here, the average winter temps are normally 15-20ish degrees, which really isn't bad, however, this week...

    EXPECT THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON TO ARRIVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT... AND FRIDAY NIGHT... OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AWAY FROM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PLAN ON WINDS TO BE 10 TO 20 MPH DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD... RESULTING IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF ON THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
    I've had 3 feet of snow fall in Mid April. Its those non average things that throw stuff off.

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    Our local NOAA website contains historical information. You can poke around their website for historical information. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

    Look in the local climatology page. You should be able to find historical info summaries.
    Last edited by DataJunkie; 01-10-09 at 09:19 PM. Reason: Added info

  17. #17
    1coolrider arcticbiker's Avatar
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    Our paper reported a local Tok thermometer reading -80F last week. The official temp at the weather station was recorded in the low -60's. I've spent a few days in -70F temps. I didn't ride...
    Arcticbiker

  18. #18
    babylon by bike Standalone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arcticbiker View Post
    Our paper reported a local Tok thermometer reading -80F last week. The official temp at the weather station was recorded in the low -60's. I've spent a few days in -70F temps. I didn't ride...
    My wife's from Fairbanks, but I've yet to visit my inlaws during the winter.

    It's gotten very cold for coastal Conecticut, but I think that this is the big cold snap of the season, and we'll maybe get one or two more, but probably more moderate than this.

    I agree that this is going to turn out to be a generally colder winter here.
    The bicycle, the bicycle surely, should always be the vehicle of novelists and poets. Christopher Morley

  19. #19
    Car-Free Flatlander Stacy's Avatar
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    The weatherman on our local cable news (NY1) just commented that the coldest recorded temperature for NYC was -15 f but that was back in the '30s. Personally I can't remember it ever getting colder than, maybe, -4 f. New York City winters are relatively mild since we're south of the snow belt that hits upstate and New England. Even so, yesterday it was 42 but today we're getting hit with what they call an Alberta Clipper so temperatures are expected to dip down into the teens. Hey Machka and the rest of you folks above the 49th. Thanks for the weather

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    Quote Originally Posted by buzzman View Post
    I don't know if you're a native of New York or not and I know NY is not "New England". But as a long time Northeaster I can assure you that we are not fully in the clear until about April 15th. We can get a huge blizzard with icy cold winds in early April every once in a while. That said it can also warm up mid-January and not snow again until nearly March.

    As Mark Twain said about the weather in this region, "If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait a minute."

    Keep your winter stuff handy through mid-April. Expect it to hit 10〫F (or below) a few more times and average somewhere around 34〫F overall.

    BTW the best way to ensure one more blizzard and/or cold spell is to pack all your cold weather gear away and remove your studded snow tires.

    But if you're thinking about, "when will it end?" now, in early January, you need to slightly adjust your thinking or it will feel like a really loooooooong time before it's warm again.


    Just my .02 someone who grew up in Mass but lives in NYC: the climate is milder in NYC than it is up where you are. It's very rare indeed for temps to get down to 10 degrees in the 5 boroughs - the northern suburbs usually average a nightly low that is 5-8 degrees colder than the city, but the city's weather is actually kind of mild compared to upstate and New England. Spring comes several weeks earlier here than it does up in MA and snow in mid-April is much less likely.

  21. #21
    urban biker
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stacy View Post
    The weatherman on our local cable news (NY1) just commented that the coldest recorded temperature for NYC was -15 f but that was back in the '30s. Personally I can't remember it ever getting colder than, maybe, -4 f. New York City winters are relatively mild since we're south of the snow belt that hits upstate and New England. Even so, yesterday it was 42 but today we're getting hit with what they call an Alberta Clipper so temperatures are expected to dip down into the teens. Hey Machka and the rest of you folks above the 49th. Thanks for the weather
    What Stacy said. Riding in NYC is piece of cake compared to other places and the coldest it gets is about 15F and that happens maybe 10 days a year. The real challenge can be snow, but last year it snowed so little I rode every day; the biggest thing I worried about was the wooden planks freezing on the Brooklyn Bridge.

  22. #22
    Long Distance Cyclist Machka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlk View Post
    this is my first winter riding and paying close attention to the temperature on a daily basis, so I'd like to have some idea of what to expect in the upcoming months. I'm in new york, so can anyone in the north east give me an idea of if it will get any worse than it's already been? looking at the temp averages on weather.com, it seems like temps will hold for a couple weeks, and then start to go up at the beginning of february. does that seem about right?
    So ... did it get worse than it was on and prior to January 7th? Did the temps go up at the beginning of February?

    In my part of the world we've been experiencing temps in the -20C to -30C range for a couple weeks now ... at the end of February/beginning of March.

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