I'm with koffee... i don't think his drive is there... remember Lance was supposed to be ripping up the classics this year? if he was in prep for that shouldn't he have been in great shape for the early season... better than other years, and not worse. well the assault on the classics has been a total bust... he is worse this year than when he was prepping just for the TdF. the question is has he messed with his tour prep enough to screw that up too... the point i was making before is that he has never... even while playing opossum, unleashing psychological attacks, what ever you want to call it... he hasn't ridden this poorly in an early season since he almost quit when he came back to cycling after cancer. usually in the early season he doesn't try to win the events but you can see that he is holding back... and there are a few flashes of form (like in the time trial of the Critérium International last year) i think that in deciding if to do the TdF this year he may have ended up psyching himself out this time.