Contador is not out yet - only 2 minutes off the lead. But it IS a long way to Paris.

Personally, I dont think he'll Trifecta. He remains a top contendor, and lightning has already struck twice... what are the odds for a third?
One of the Schlecks, Evans, Basso, Hushovd, Cavendish... these guys are more likely in my eye.
Hushovd seems unstoppable, long about now.