Good thing for Lance that he is smarter than most of his fans. If Lance was thinking like this then the Tour would be all but over for him. And it would be an ending where he is not even on the podium.
If nothing else he could easily have been in what seemed to be the right place and had his tour end in a crash yesterday. And there is no perfect place to stay crash free unless you are willing to lose at least a minute in each stage.