I feel same way as Ba-Dg-Er.
However I feel that Lance does have a chance. It looks the same as last year. Sure the team will hae to work 100% as a bad day in any 3 week stage race can be deadly but he looks strong.
Sure there are strong riders out there but nothing great to cause big threat. Nothing like Ullrich in his day or Indurain or Olano in perfect shape.
There will be players, however too early to even point some out. Most of the big ones are in the Giro and may opt to not race the Tour or to take it easy in the Tour. Pantani is still uncertain he will attend the Tour. Even if he does nothing will happen.
I see the spanish riders again doing much work but for nothing great. Tonkov does have options but we will see after the Giro. Julich we will also see how he will come along as the Tour gets closer.
ONCE with Olano and Jalabert. Same as last year, Jaja will play some stages while Olano I believe will again falter. Olano is not a true stage racer but has been pushed in this position. Banesto also will shoot with Zuelle but again I beleive he will crack at least once.
The Tour will be won by an average rider that can hold for 3 weeks. Hold in the sense of not loosing much time in the mountains and controling threatening attacks and staying on top on the time trials.
As far as great attacks. We have missed those in the past years as teams are not forming great alliances with each others and riders now tend to be a wee bit more scare of forming a big attack. The last time these were seen was in the Vuelta last year with the Kelme boys. I hope they put on a great show this year.
Saeco looks to be one of the better teams on paper to date, but we will see after the Giro.
Please keep this alive as I love to put my thoughts as the date gets closer.