Originally Posted by
hagen2456
I think that you over-emphasize the correlation/causation problem here.
True, finding the reasons for a correletion is absolutely necessary if you have only one study. However, in this case they are numerous, and they all show the same trend. That Pucher still hesitates to speak of a regular causation has to do with the fact that finding the causes is a very complex matter which would take a very thorough (and costly) investigation. What we DO have are several papers telling us what most cyclists (potential as well as actual) want, from both America and Europe, and as these seem to correlelate with the other correlation, so to speak, the case IS quite strong.
As you write, tracing down the real causes would be complex, difficult, and expensive. However, I don't disagree that government doing what people want in an activity is likely to increase the number of people in the affected activity. However, I think it is an unwarranted assumption to ascribe the increase to particular items produced, as distinct from the publicity of the program itself and the conditions that created to program.