mcconYour point if flawed. It is the same as saying you flip a coin 10 time and it came out heads every time. You then ask what are the odds on fliping the 11th time. They are still 50-50. So to answer your question, the odds of either of them having an accident is equal. Accidents can and do happen to anyone.
Several years ago an English rider was killed while riding in the TDF. Im sure he was a very experience rider.