Thanks to everyone who got the point of this thread and shared their experiences.
Originally Posted by
Chrome Molly
As the hipster fixie thing continues to cool off, I suspect the mid-high, to high end non Italian, custom, or true top end stuff will go down further in value.
I'm going to paraphrase you and say that basically, the best stuff will always retain it's value. I agree, but in terms of things going down in value, I'd say it's still very early for that, if the story of another collectible genre can be applied. I am pretty knowledgeable about comic book collectibles - back in the early 2000s (say 2002), prices just were soaring. It probably had a lot to do with Ebay, but comic movies (e.g. spiderman, daredevil, x-men) were also hitting their stride. Prices had been going up for about 3 years by then, to previously unheard-of values. During this time, practically every week, someone on the comic book forum would start a "crash" thread - i.e. is the market going to crash or is it crashing now? Whenever a couple of books on ebay sold for a bit less than recent average, people would start saying the end was near. Some very knowledgeable folks predicted the end would occur in 2004. It is now 2014. I have stayed away from those forums and buying/selling books since about 2003. Prices are now about 5 times what they were when I last saw them. I walked into an LCS recently (local comic store), and saw there, on the rack, a book selling for $1600 (an early X Men book graded CGC 8.0). I remember I had two books in the same grade, of considerably more value, that I bought each for around 175 US, then flipped for about 275 US 6 months later. I sold them because I thought the end was near and I bought them to flip anyways. These books are probably worth over 2000 each now. If you had asked me, in 2003, if by 2014, whether or not the crash would have occurred yet, I would've said absolutely most definitely. It could've occurred in 2006, 2007, 2008 or whatever. It's now 2014 and the market is higher than it has ever been. And I'd say the demographics for comic book collectors is even worse than for bikes (do you any kid who reads comic books? Only old foggies go to comic book stores these days). The market will crash, but it's still early. Someone said old bikes started gaining in popularity again in roughly 2008. If so, we have a long way to go. Unlike comics, bikes are much more difficult to sell/liquidate, so a bike market depends a lot more on local sellers/buyers. Whilst Ebay was popular far before 2008, I'd say it was in the last half-dozen years or so that local selling via the internet has really taken off. So again, we could be at the early end of the curve.
Originally Posted by
wrk101
As far as predicting the future, if I had that ability, I would be heavy into the stock or commodity markets where predictions can mean serious $$.
I ask these questions not as an investor, but to decide whether to buy a bike now, or wait till later to get it. If I want to add a Pinarello to my collection, I'd rather pay $500 for it now than $1000 two years from now.
Originally Posted by
pastorbobnlnh
I spend time with a group of teens at my church on a weekly basis, and the small percentage (1-5%) that are interested in bikes, only look at BMXs or MTBs. But I live in a large village/rural area, so this could easily skew your final conclusion in quantifying the data in this highly subjective survey.
In high school in the 1990s, I knew one other person with an interest in road bikes, and zero with an interest in comic books. Just this summer, a comic book sold for some 3 million dollars or so. What does a Cinelli Laser funny bike sell for? 100K? That's chump change - there are hundreds of comics that can sell for that amount. Anyways - there are buyers out there, just don't know where. They could be international.
Originally Posted by
rootboy
I sometimes wonder if much of the NOS Campy stuff, for example, just circulates around and around.
From one appreciator to another.
I would think so. Some people covet an NOS thing thinking it'll be the perfect bling on their dream bike, only to get it and realize they can't use it cause it's too nice. So they sell it.