Right it would bve really interesting to see how each guy would have done under the same circumstances. I'm sure that this was Tony Martin's argument against this course and against the allowance of bike type swaps for the final climb. There's so many factors for this one:
How well was the swap executed? I saw a couple completely botched swaps, bad clip-in jobs. But then there were a couple toward the end around 7-8 seconds at the end count. But again to Froome's comments before the race: how much momentum was lost? What about rhythm?
How comfortable is each particular rider on the TT bike? That climb was pretty nuts....all those tight switchbacks at the bottom. If a rider isn't comfortable on the TT bike then making those turns on one would be very hard and would mean slowing down even more than normal...regardless of the gradient.
So the question is WAY bigger than just aero vs weight. The guys that put time into perfecting their TT riding are going to be more comfortable on the TT bike than a rider that just TTs because they have to. IMO the bike swap was costing people a minimum of 10 seconds...and the question was could they make that up on the climb. And making that time up was not just aero vs weight...handling (cornering) and pure acceleration had a lot to do with it too.
Honestly when I first heard about it I thought it was a bad course because it hurt the pure TT guys...but having watched it I must say it was hugely entertaining and in the end that's what this is all about. The Tony Martin's can be pissed that the course was a disadvantage for them...but last year a pan flat course was the exact opposite, it favored the pure TT guys. They aren't going to have a course like this every year and personally I think it was ok to have as a one off odd ball course.
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