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Old 06-06-20, 10:23 AM
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Fatality rates in CA

The L.A. Times maintains an excellent page of statistical visualizations of the state of the pandemic in CA. One statistic that they don't present, however, is fatality rate; likely because they judge they can't assess it accurately (the 'denominator problem').

However it's easy enough to get a rough view by combining other statistics on their page.

So given that these statstics have the death numbers pretty close, but the cases number missing a significant number of un-reported/un-tested cases, I think it's safe to say that the fatality rate for coronavirus for under age 50 is significantly lower than 0.6%.

But past age 50 (probably pretty tightly correlated with general decline in health) the fatality rate rises radically, so that over 80 years old if you are infected, you have probably no better than 1 in 5 chance of dying (if not necessarily dying 'from' the virus, dying of a co-morbidity 'with' the virus) [EDIT: not to imply that a co-morbidity 'doesn't count']

[EDIT: HT to 3alarmer for pointing me to this article, which taught me that proper fatality statistics have to account for incubation lag; you can't divide today's deaths by today's cases, you have to divide it by the smaller number of cases at the time today's deaths got infected. Smaller divisor means larger fatality statistics.

Here is my new spreadsheet, anybody can view it and make their own copy to play around with.

Here is a screenshot.

I continue the discussion in post 135

Last edited by RubeRad; 06-23-20 at 09:36 PM.
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