Thread: Covid-19
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Old 07-15-20, 02:48 PM
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This is a difficult virus to deal with. For one thing, it seems as if nobody has significant immunity to the virus. So, the right contact, and it can spread from host to host. Part of the seasonality of the Flu is likely a combination of moderate immunity among the people, and wide spread infections, followed by a lack of new hosts.

Unfortunately, there are perhaps 300 million potential hosts in the USA for COVID.

We also had a big push to reopen this spring. Too much, too early? So, while we may have reduced spreading now, there are quite a few spreading the disease.

It is hard to say whether the virus will rebound in the fall.

A lot of what seems to impact the virus is what people are doing. So, people may stay inside in the South during the summer like people do in the North during the winter.

This fall, the more in-person schooling we have, the greater the expected spread of the virus. Not necessarily killing the school kids, but leaving a plume of destruction around them.

Reinfection does seem real, some with severe reactions, but it is unclear how widespread. There are several major strains of the virus circulating in the USA which may impact reinfection.

I think we likely had quite a few undocumented cases in my county, but I believe we could have wiped out COVID, except for repeatedly re-importing from cities with more infections to the north, and states with more infections both to the north and the south.
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