Old 07-17-20, 07:09 PM
  #22  
CliffordK
Senior Member
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,968
Mentioned: 202 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13059 Post(s)
Liked 1,734 Times in 1,313 Posts
Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
I haven't been keeping up with the latest propaganda, but it's my understanding that children of school age (<18) are the least likely to die or have severe symptoms, so their risk is least. Not insignificant, but the least risk. The teachers have significantly more risk. I have no children, so this isn't personal.
Yes, kids seem to have low risk of acute complications. We may not know for a few years if there is some more persistent complication like scarring int the lungs, or cardiac anomalies.

Yet, kids contact parents and grandparents. And, someone cares for them when they're ill. And, those parents and grandparents have contact with neighbors and coworkers. A few infections can be a whole community quickly.
Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
Do we now have the goal of zero new cases, zero new deaths, or the more realistic expectation that everyone is going to contract the virus, and we're just trying to keep the hospital facilities from being overwhelmed? Not everyone is ready to hear that the virus will get them, eventually.
We don't know if there will be an effective vaccine or not. I believe I managed to evade the 2009 Swine Flu, and stupidly never got vaccinated, and think it finally caught up with me around 2016 or so.

Assuming a resurgence of COVID this fall and winter, a good number of people will be able to evade it this year.

Then the question is whether we will have an effective vaccine before it comes back around next year or every few years.

So far, none of our local nursing homes has had a significant outbreak, or any deaths. People can be effectively isolated. Forever?
Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
In my view, the only way to stop the virus spread entirely is to shut down society and the economy for a year, and I don't see that happening.
I believe North Korea was able to fight down the numbers without a significant shutdown.

However, I've also wondered what the effects of say doing a periodic 2-week COVID Holiday would be. Shut down everything including grocery stores for 2 weeks. The only thing open would be Emergency Medicine. Then, as one reopens, be very careful to isolate any individual or family that demonstrates illness.

Vietnam apparently would shut down entire communities for a single case, then hit it hard, and reopen once the cases were resolved.

Unfortunately we are so far behind the curve that it will be hard to catch up. I do think we could knock out the illness locally with contact tracing (county of 300K+ residents), but it is difficult to prevent re-importing the diseases from neighboring areas.
CliffordK is offline