Old 07-17-20, 07:52 PM
Philosopher of Bicycling
DeadGrandpa's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Carolina
Posts: 1,067

Bikes: Too many, yet not enough.

Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 421 Post(s)
Liked 193 Times in 139 Posts
Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Yes, kids seem to have low risk of acute complications. We may not know for a few years if there is some more persistent complication like scarring int the lungs, or cardiac anomalies.

Yet, kids contact parents and grandparents. And, someone cares for them when they're ill. And, those parents and grandparents have contact with neighbors and coworkers. A few infections can be a whole community quickly.
We don't know if there will be an effective vaccine or not. I believe I managed to evade the 2009 Swine Flu, and stupidly never got vaccinated, and think it finally caught up with me around 2016 or so.

Assuming a resurgence of COVID this fall and winter, a good number of people will be able to evade it this year.

Then the question is whether we will have an effective vaccine before it comes back around next year or every few years.

So far, none of our local nursing homes has had a significant outbreak, or any deaths. People can be effectively isolated. Forever?

I believe North Korea was able to fight down the numbers without a significant shutdown.

However, I've also wondered what the effects of say doing a periodic 2-week COVID Holiday would be. Shut down everything including grocery stores for 2 weeks. The only thing open would be Emergency Medicine. Then, as one reopens, be very careful to isolate any individual or family that demonstrates illness.

Vietnam apparently would shut down entire communities for a single case, then hit it hard, and reopen once the cases were resolved.

Unfortunately we are so far behind the curve that it will be hard to catch up. I do think we could knock out the illness locally with contact tracing (county of 300K+ residents), but it is difficult to prevent re-importing the diseases from neighboring areas.
Thank you for the most reasoned reply I believe I've ever read here on BF. I don't know if "herd immunity" applies in this situation, but I've heard that the (Covid) mortality rate in the K-12 age group is many times less than the mortality rate for the regular flu. We don't close schools because of the flu. Maybe we should.
DeadGrandpa is offline