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Old 03-16-21, 10:18 AM
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It'd be tough to estimate TSS ahead of time, unless you can also (correctly) estimate your efforts -- especially on climbs.

For example, one of my favorite rides has a 1,000', 3.5 mile climb near the start. A few weeks ago I attacked that ridge. Kicked my CP right up. Burned too many matches, finished the ride just beat. Last weekend I did a similar route, but decided I'd stay in endurance mode going up the ridge. Didn't make much difference in climbing time, but I had some energy left at the end of the ride for cleaning out the garage. My TSS ratio was 2:1 for the two rides.

Can you look at grades and lengths of climbs on a new route and make projections as to how hard you're going to ride up them? Or are you running a series of (flattish) intervals where you can predict your effort? That kind of detail is what you'd need to develop to make a good estimate of TSS. A simple calculation probably won't do it.
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