I saw Floyd on Larry King last night giving his story, and then a had chance to think about this some, and here is my take on it.
- All of the riders in the TdF know that if they are stage winner or tour leader that they will be tested. Had Floyd wanted to dope, he could have chosen something that at least had a chance of getting past the tests. Picking testosterone is just asking for trouble.
- Testosterone was typically used during training to build muscle mass over several months. In the bad old days where the East German swim team used the stuff, they would use it prior to the event, and then stop prior to the event to give the body a chance to restore normal testosterone levels. A sudden spike in levels during an event isn't consistent with typical abuse patterns.
- Floyd's doctor said that he didn't think that there would even be any benefit to using testosterone on the day of an event.
At this point I don't know how it is that his levels became elevated, and it sounds like nobody else really does either. We will have to see what the remaining tests actually say - there is one test that is yet to be performed which will say whether there were any hormones in there which weren't produced by his body, and that will help quite a bit.