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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

Old 03-15-20, 02:28 PM
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At first I thought the local race rides would turn in to the new racing scene; until my partner reminded me of the risks of getting snot rockets/spittle in your face from someone..

Also our local hospitals are apparently only doing "non-elective surgery" - basically only life-saving trauma & birth-related surgeries. A broken collarbone doesn't qualify... I guess you'd just have to wait. (according to a teammate who's a doctor)

We're in a "hot zone" (Santa Clara County) so this probably doesn't apply everywhere, yet.

So all that makes me think twice about even doing group rides, sadly. But if that's my biggest concern at the moment I'm not doing too bad I guess.

Stay safe y'all!
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Old 03-15-20, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by mattm View Post
At first I thought the local race rides would turn in to the new racing scene; until my partner reminded me of the risks of getting snot rockets/spittle in your face from someone..

Also our local hospitals are apparently only doing "non-elective surgery" - basically only life-saving trauma & birth-related surgeries. A broken collarbone doesn't qualify... I guess you'd just have to wait. (according to a teammate who's a doctor)

We're in a "hot zone" (Santa Clara County) so this probably doesn't apply everywhere, yet.

So all that makes me think twice about even doing group rides, sadly. But if that's my biggest concern at the moment I'm not doing too bad I guess.

Stay safe y'all!
My wife is in HR for a fairly large hospital. She tends to be the one that gets the legal stuff.
We went for a tandem ride today and wife left the phone on. That made for an interesting "ride" - lots of emailing and txting.
Our governor just requested all those over 65 stay home. All day, on the phone/email with lawyers and others on the phone today trying to determine what a request means and how that affects a number of medical professionals over 65.
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Old 03-15-20, 08:15 PM
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CDC is now recommending gatherings of 50 or more to be canceled for 8 weeks.

I guess Iím getting my wish of late-season races?
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Old 03-16-20, 06:13 AM
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I ordered a new desk chair. The one I have now isn't exactly built for daily use. I need something more comfortable if I'm going to be working from home for the next several weeks.
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Old 03-16-20, 08:16 AM
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I received a notice late yesterday from my employer that a person I was in meetings with between Mar 9 and 11 has come down with respiratory symptoms. The person has not yet been tested but is in contact with their doctor and will follow their advice. I have been working from home since 3/12 by my own choice, and I'm now on mandatory work from home until 3/25 (14 days from 3/11).
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Old 03-16-20, 08:21 AM
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Team cancelled our group rides "per USAC guidance".

I posted on the FB page we can Zwift together and get on Discord. We'll see if anyone bites. If not, I'll join up with my Zwift team for some TTT action sometime this week.

It's amazing how much harder the work is at same levels with less air moving versus the huge gym fan I'm used to. Buckets of sweat. Like ludicrous for just an hour.
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Old 03-16-20, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by gsteinb View Post
I don't see getting races pushed or created for late season to be a viable possibility. I guess it's possible. If anything cross season will be saved and grow even more. Permitting, cost, and closure issues will remain for road.
Two road races and two TTs in Washington state have been rescheduled for end of May and June. I know the promoter of two of our cancelled Oregon road races is trying to reschedule as well. My guess is the May/June races will be cancelled as well and we won't be back to racing until August, but it is good to see them trying to keep the races on.
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Old 03-16-20, 08:44 AM
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I'm signed up for the Oregon Triple Crown, which seals up nearly every weekend in June. I have a feeling BWR will be postponed until November, but hold hope that it won't. If it does get put off, that'll open me up for the Coast Gravel Epic (if it doesn't get canceled).

May is still a ways off, and who knows what will happen between now and then. I know that store shelves can't keep anything on them for long, and a 4000 calorie/day diet is a no-go if food becomes even more scarce.
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Old 03-16-20, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by gsteinb View Post
...
My wife also works in a very large medical system in a non medical role. She had a surgery in a couple weeks, which I talked her out of and had rescheduled. Folks who have non elective stuff canceled are going to have a hella time getting calendar space when this all passes. One of her assistants asked why they just don't send their team home. It's in case they have a 'all hands on deck' situation. Oh.
Right now her hospital (Hoag) is at very low capacity. Maybe 20% and they want elective business.

CA governor saying those over 65 need to stay home created a firestorm of legal issues about was that a suggestion, will there be fines etc.
Many of the physician's are that age.

In CA physician's may not work for the hospital. So it further complicates the management.

Last edited by Doge; 04-26-20 at 05:15 PM.
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Old 03-16-20, 09:23 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
a 4000 calorie/day diet is a no-go if food becomes even more scarce.
Base build efficient fat burn time!

Some fatty foods are super calorie dense.
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Old 03-16-20, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by burnthesheep View Post
Base build efficient fat burn time!

Some fatty foods are super calorie dense.
I was telling a co-worker that I'm ok with going on an all-potato diet if need be, but the guy that was living off of donuts and Red Bull last week just bought ALL of the damn potatoes.
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Old 03-16-20, 01:02 PM
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The other 2 guys in my office (I share a room with 2 others) are sick, one is getting tested today, so we're all waiting for the results. My boss called me into the office and I was sent home. So I guess I'm on lockdown until he gets his results.

FYI, 97.5 temp, 46 resting heart rate this morning. Rode at or over tempo for 90 minutes on Saturday. I feel great but I'm probably going to stick to z2 workouts until we know what's going on.
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Old 03-16-20, 02:56 PM
  #38  
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I brought up concerns weeks ago to my management. Friday they finally gave the OK to work from home if you want and are able. I told him last week I'd be remote until this settles, but would take PTO if that wasn't ok.

Now I wish I had a better chair at home. All the good ones are so expensive!
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Old 03-16-20, 03:44 PM
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My wedding is (was?) scheduled or May 9, which is within the 8-week recommendation by the CDC. I'm sure we'll be able to re-schedule and/or re-fund deposits that we have in place with the venue, DJ, photographer, caterer, rentals... Fun stuff.
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Old 03-16-20, 06:03 PM
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Originally Posted by topflightpro View Post
I ordered a new desk chair. The one I have now isn't exactly built for daily use. I need something more comfortable if I'm going to be working from home for the next several weeks.
which one?

I have been teleworking full time for the last four years, and the s***e chair that I have (more than 20 years of service) is really not cutting it, with the foam having long lost any elasticity. I'd like to spend $1k on an Aeron chair (and my wife would fully supports the purchase), but I just don't want to blow that much on something that may not work well
Originally Posted by furiousferret View Post
The other 2 guys in my office (I share a room with 2 others) are sick, one is getting tested today, so we're all waiting for the results. My boss called me into the office and I was sent home. So I guess I'm on lockdown until he gets his results.

FYI, 97.5 temp, 46 resting heart rate this morning. Rode at or over tempo for 90 minutes on Saturday. I feel great but I'm probably going to stick to z2 workouts until we know what's going on.
Yikes. Best of wishes.
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Old 03-17-20, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by echappist View Post
which one?

I have been teleworking full time for the last four years, and the s***e chair that I have (more than 20 years of service) is really not cutting it, with the foam having long lost any elasticity. I'd like to spend $1k on an Aeron chair (and my wife would fully supports the purchase), but I just don't want to blow that much on something that may not work well
I ordered a Hon one off Amazon. It was on sale for like $160, regularly $250. Costco had it for $200. I've learned that good office chairs are really expensive. I'm hoping the one I ordered is good enough. Regardless, it will be better than the crappy Ikea chair I'm currently using, which isn't really a desk chair, but has been fine for the minimal amount of time I've spent at home working until now.
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Old 03-17-20, 08:17 AM
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furiousferret Best of luck to you and your colleagues not getting the virus. Take care.
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Old 03-17-20, 08:52 AM
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Thanks everyone.

Last night they called him and said the hospital was inundated and unless its severe, he couldn't get tested. They think he just has the Flu, so hopefully that's it. Returning from the UK 16 days ago, I'd feel pretty bad if someone got it because I'd be under the assumption I spread it.
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Old 03-17-20, 11:13 PM
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Wife's work (Hoag) is sending staff home, closing operations (Hoag Orthopedic) as business is so slow.
Many tested last weekend, not one positive.

What ever this may be, or become, in SoCal it is not yet any kind of strain on the medical system other than those encouraged to just get tested.
The USA trend is pretty much nothing.

That is not to say it could not be something but reading, hearing "The widespread..." is just false. Hearing that hospitals are overwhelmed does not ring true.

Last edited by Doge; 04-26-20 at 05:17 PM.
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Old 03-18-20, 06:31 AM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
Wife's work (Hoag) is sending staff home, closing operations (Hoag Orthopedic) as business is so slow.
Many tested last weekend, not one positive.

What ever this may be, or become, in SoCal is is not yet any kind of strain on the medical system other than those encouraged to just getting tested.
The USA trend is pretty much nothing.

That is not to say it could not be something but reading, hearing "The widespread..." is just false. Hearing that hospitals are overwhelmed does not ring true.
The number of positive cases is growing pretty rapidly. A week ago, we were at 1000. Now we are at more than 6000. We are very closely following the spread rates seen in Italy, which is struggling to keep up, and they have a much larger hospital system than the US. And those numbers I cited are only the confirmed cases. Health care officials believe there are probably a half million people with the virus right now, but most have not yet shown symptoms or been tested.
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Old 03-18-20, 07:24 AM
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Originally Posted by topflightpro View Post
We are very closely following the spread rates seen in Italy, which is struggling to keep up, and they have a much larger hospital system than the US. And those numbers I cited are only the confirmed cases. Health care officials believe there are probably a half million people with the virus right now, but most have not yet shown symptoms or been tested.
Hm. According to data from Statista, the USA has about 6x the number of hospitals, hospital beds and population, give or take, but the USA has about ~14% fewer beds per-capita (of population) as compared to Italy. So, if in the USA this thing gets as bad as Italy's seeing, if requiring a high rate of hospitalization, it might hit the U.S. hospital system fairly hard.

Population: Italy - 60.3M (as of 2019); USA - 329.4M (estim. as of 2020)
Number of hospitals: Italy - 1063; USA - 6210
Number of hospital beds: Italy - 192548 (0.0031 beds/person, or 6.1 beds/infection); USA - 909200 (0.0027 beds/person, or 139 beds/infection)
COVID-19 infected: Italy - 31506; USA - 6496
COVID-19 deaths: Italy - 2503; USA - 114

I'm sure "the numbers" are driving epidemiologists nutty, right about now, trying to estimate the expected growth and impact. Probably trying to do everything they can to slow the growth rate, delay the necessity of a doctor/hospital visit by a patient, etc.


* Data from Statista, the Johns-Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 'dashboard' project, the Italian statistics institute, and the U.S. Census estimates.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by topflightpro View Post
... A week ago, we were at 1000. Now we are at more than 6000. We are very closely following the spread rates seen in Italy, ...
The whole per capita part is being ignored in most the social postings I read.
I don't have the daily number for Italy, but what I have seen on Facebook or both countries going from 1000-6000 in the same period of time is not the same rate, just like and increase of 10,11,12,13 is not the same rate as 50,51,52,53.
These posts and stats I've seen ignore the base - in this case the population. As much as 40% of the US deaths were due to external sources - boats, an identified individual bringing it in.

I also was hearing that we may all be carriers, we don't know. A pile of tests Sunday @ Hoag Hospital of folks feeling sick, coughing, runny noses - they couldn't find a carrier. The testing thing is difficult. It is hard to test 350 million people to find those 6,500 that have it. I'm sure it is more than 6,500, but I don't but this "we may all be carriers" thing.

To me the rate that matters is deaths per capita, and then the geographic location. The rate of deaths is too new a stat.

In the USA as of March 18 10:34 EDT there are 116 fatal cases. The WA elderly from one rest home and several from a cruise ship contribute a significant amount to that.
The first death from a USA caught infection was Feb 29 - 18 days ago. A rate of deaths/USA population/days since 1st death ~ nothing.

The rate of deaths in the states I live in goes between 1/day to 0 per day (CA has 11, CO 2). The rate based on population 11/39,000,000/14days = .00000002 deaths per capita per day in CA. and less in CO.

Not that any deaths are OK, and not that this could not grow and maybe what we have done will reduce contagion, but I'm far from panic as to the virus itself. It could be bad, it could get bad. It is not bad now.
That stock market, and being restricted are much bigger issues.

Right now the states I live in - CA and CO,

Last edited by Doge; 03-18-20 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Hm. According to data from Statista, the USA has about 6x the number of hospitals, .....
Funny we were posting similar at the same time. Statista wants $59/month from me, so I have to search a lot. I have been keeping my own spreadsheet and seeing the trends.

I really want to see the influenza trends which I expect will be way down from the 20K so deaths in the USA due to the behavior changes forced on the population. I expect auto accidents to go down too.
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Old 03-18-20, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
The whole per capita part is being ignored in most the social postings I read.
I don't have the daily number for Italy, but what I have seen on Facebook or both countries going from 1000-6000 in the same period of time is not the same rate, just like and increase of 10,11,12,13 is not the same rate as 50,51,52,53.
These posts and stats I've seen ignore the base - in this case the population. As much as 40% of the US deaths were due to external sources - boats, an identified individual bringing it in.

I also was hearing that we may all be carriers, we don't know. A pile of tests Sunday @ Hoag Hospital of folks feeling sick, coughing, runny noses - they couldn't find a carrier. The testing thing is difficult. It is hard to test 350 million people to find those 6,500 that have it. I'm sure it is more than 6,500, but I don't but this "we may all be carriers" thing.

To me the rate that matters is deaths per capita, and then the geographic location. The rate of deaths is too new a stat.

In the USA as of March 18 10:34 EDT there are 116 fatal cases. The WA elderly from one rest home and several from a cruise ship contribute a significant amount to that.
The first death from a USA caught infection was Feb 29 - 18 days ago. A rate of deaths/USA population/days since 1st death ~ nothing.

The rate of deaths in the states I live in goes between 1/day to 0 per day (CA has 11, CO 2). The rate based on population 11/39,000,000/14days = .00000002 deaths per capita per day in CA. and less in CO.

Not that any deaths are OK, and not that this could not grow and maybe what we have done will reduce contagion, but I'm far from panic as to the virus itself. It could be bad, it could get bad. It is not bad now.
That stock market, and being restricted are much bigger issues.

Right now the states I live in - CA and CO,
People don't just get it and die from this; its usually a long burn and eventually their body gives out so those numbers are bound to go up. Its really a terrible experience with life altering consequences if you survive (from what I've read). The good thing is only a small percentage have those issues, but not all are old people.

We can't compare this to China or even Italy because Italy tested well and China locked down the country very early. We're not even testing people with symptoms that are severely sick. We're also far from our peak unfortunately, the numbers are going to grow (despite hiding numbers via non testing). It's going to be grim, and we're all probably going to know a person or two. Hopefully we're all wrong. Everyday there's a 'this medicine works against it' article, maybe one of those actually does help and greatly reduces things.

My biggest frustration out of this isn't the panic, imo there's a time to panic (to an extent). Its the people on social media comparing it to H1N1, calling it a hoax, an overreaction, etc. So if that person has 1,000 followers and influence 5 to ignore protocols, those 5 could spread it or get it.
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Old 03-18-20, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by furiousferret View Post
.... We're not even testing people with symptoms that are severely sick. ...
I also have personal experience through the spouse - based on the hospital I named, that when among the sickest (my wife commented on the germ fest) in the OC and testing them all day Sunday (and Monday and Tuesday) they did not find one carrier.

I'm not calling it a hoax, and I have not read that it is but the personal data above and the 116 deaths in the USA and no real increase of deaths in CA (no rate change up) over 18 days does not give me enough data to support that there is a real issue here.

I like what I heard the UK did. They sequestered those that were most susceptible. Certainly some folks should not go out and should stay far from anyone. But the general healthy population is barely being hit by this. I think they should be left to live life normally.
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