Racing Strategy for the revised TDF
 

Figuring out who to mark, and what moves to chase is always interesting in the TDF. Now, with most of the favorites out, it will be that much harder for teams to decide who to cover. And there may be another added dimension. Assume that more riders will be pulled as the Tour goes along, and assume those close to the peleton know who is likely to end up be DQ'd. Do you let moves go with riders that you believe are going to get yanked, or do you waste energy chasing what in effect are ghosts? Not only do you now have to assess can a guy climb, can he TT, but you also have to assess, he is going to make it to Paris without getting yanked.

I'd say Hincapie is looking really, really good now.

One thing I dont think you will see is moderate sized breaks given 10 to 20min in early stages as occasionally has occured in the past. I beleive you will see a jumpier than usual field early on, till the TT's start to sort things out.

+1. Very few breaks will go unanswered. Disco and co. were much more apt to let a big breakaway go because they knew no GC contenders were up ahead. Now, nobody knows who the GC contender will be!

I'm excited about the Tour. I mean, it was anybody's race BEFORE Puerto, now it's total chaos!

DrPete

This tour is full of surprises and my assessments aren't worth much. But this is what I think will be the challenges in light of the recent developments.

Discovery has so many riders with potential to be on top of the podium. With George, Acevedo, Danielson, Salvoldelli, they all have a "Race to Replace" mentality. This could be their strength but it could also prove their undoing because most of the work is done by the teams at the beginning of each long stage. IF they are going for the multi-pronged approach, they will have to allow other teams to do the work. Johan will have to make a decision early and make it clear who everyone will work for. Only then will this team work well. Otherwise, they will all be vying for good position and will all expire early in the stages.

CSC is the only other team with the strength to do early work, but with Ivan out of the picture, I doubt they will. I am sure they are completely demoralized at the moment and this could change the dynamics of the team. Consider also that Riis is likely currently struggling with explanations to sponsors. Another big internal distraction. Bobby Julich is their next big Stage Racing hope and he's made it to the podium under similar circumstance in 1999. He's got the experience and the smarts, so he may be one to watch.

Levi and Georg Totschnig should be very strong this year and one of them will be on the podium. But the long TTs may be their weakness. However, neither will sacrifice their personal ambitions to assist the other for the best possible GC spot.

Velverde is likely the most naturally talented rider in the field. But he does not have a strategy for winning. He's just a brute force rider that outrides his opponents. He is old school and admits he tries to win everything. So the experienced riders and good teams will isolate him. He may be Vinokourov's replacement and will likely add the excitement that was Vinokourov's specialty. He too is not a time trialist and will have to make big time in the mountains if he's to limit losses against the clock.

Floyd has the experience and the team to get him into Paris on the podium. He's also got the best TT of the remaining GC contenders. He will be on the podium this year.

Cadel and Mauricio Ardila could be in the mix but half of their team will be to busy leading sprints for Robbie and watching Tom and the Quickstep boys. They are also not very good in the TT and will loose heavily against the clock.

Milram will be working for the green jersey.

Michael Rogers and Andreas Kloden may have their chance this year. Kloden's done well but Micheal has talked of TDF aspirations. Rudy and Jan set the tone, focus, and effort. Without them there will be an imbalance and a power struggle within the ranks. The shakeup must demoralize this team. So if they members were to choose another leader, they would likely rally behind Kloden. I don't think the German sponsor or the fans would have it any other way.

I thought that whoever got booted on the eve of the tour would be the only ones booted after it started? Or is that not the case? Is there an official word on this from whoever is governing the whole thing?

Without Pettachi, a lot of guys will think they can crack one.

Gerolsteiner will work to bring back the breaks, as will Milram, as all they have is Zabel for stage wins.

Quickstep will work like dogs to bring back the breaks as well, as they want stage wins for Boonen and the Green Jersey etc.. Same with Credit Ag for Thor. Davitimon will throw a few guys on the front for Fast Freddy as well.

Dont count out Karpets, or Menchov for the GC either...

Not sure I follow, but if you are saying that Evans isn't very good at the time trial, then I think it's obvious to all why you don't have a director sportiffs job!....you have no clues!....think back to the Tour of Romandie in April.....some bloke won the final days ITT to take the GC win......now who was that?...the field beaten by cadel was handy, without being spectacular....but obviously not rated highly in your expert opinion. You will be proven wrong, but I'm willing to bet when that happens, you'll be conspicuous by your absence around here

20 guys go up the road, with someone like Azevedo for Discovery, Zabriskie for CSC, Rogers for T-Mobile, Ardila for Lotto, Boogerd for Rabobank, some Phonak guy etc etc

Who is going to chase?

Break gets 40 minutes

All of Milram, All of Gerolsteiner, All the French teams, Unless the GC hopefull on everyteam is in the break, it will be kept in check, and the GC favorites arent going to burn themselves out on the flat stages trying to shake a 140 strong peleton. Especially if they are too afraid to re infuse some blood before the TT and mountain stages, when they're going to actually make a difference to the standings.

Those teams dont want to work will look for a little $$ on the side to throw a few guys in the mix, basically, pro racing will be pro racing again.

*bump*.....C'mon Squeegy