denbrewers

I remember, back a few years ago Ernesto Colnago proprsizing Popovich is set to win the TDF - and many times over. And that was said well before Popovich won the Worlds (remember that terrific solo breakaway?! We were all glued to our TV screens and just holding our breath and keeping our fingers crossed for him). But that prophesy was said well before that. In fact, Ernesto Colnago has had long warm relationship with the East European cycling School, and his predictions as to the future of the riders from that region have never been wrong (he had predicted great future for Tonkov in the mid 1980s - some 12 years before Pavel won the Giro!!!). That's because the man just knows what he's talking about.

J Popovich is known among the racing community as "the Eddie Merx of the Espoirs". And that's because he's won nearly everything there was to win. Now, some people think that I've been critical of Popovich in some things I've said. But in fact, I've been exactly the opposite. The kid has got enormous talent, there's no doubt about that. And I've expressed the view that that talent need to be nurtured and developed in a way brought into the sport at the right time, and... I've been at the sharp end of cycling in amongst the action for about 18 years now, and my instincts tell me that it's just a little bit too early for him to show such terrific result. Just consider, he was 12 last year at the Giro (during his first season as an elite pro!!!!!!!!!!!) And now he's third. I... It just... A mind-blowing stuff, really. I know of no other rider in the recent cycling hystory whose progress could match that of Popovich - given his very young age (Rumsas of Lithuania does spring to mind here, but he's much more mature and he's had many years of racing under his belt (he raced for Polish teams for many years).

Now, his father and his managers must have had a terrible decision to join Credit L.Colnago. It's not easy to turn down such an offer. I'm hoping my instincts will be wrong as the season goes on, but I really think that the sport like this is just gonna be on him and the limited experience that he's got means it's gonna be so difficult... And really, I'm just hoping he doesn't make the same mistake that I did and think, 'This is easy'. I was 5th in my first pro race, 2nd a few races later. I thought it was so straightforward... And then I went in the wall and hurt myself, and that pretty much affected the rest of my career...

And a couple of things Popovich has said just bother me a little bit. He said he was completely ready for the Elite category riding. He can not know that, he doesn't know what's involved. And he's also said, there was really no much difference between the Espoairs and Elite category competitions, just longer distances and higher climbs. He said that wouldn't be much of a problem for him. But IT IS a problem. The stages ARE much longer, the climbs ARE much tougher than those at the Baby Giro (with Popovich had won, incidently! - a terrific achievement in its own right), and you do have to treat them with some respect - before you can attack too much. The stakes ARE much higher. And the competition is far stiffer.

But, just watching yesterday's TT tape I can only say for now, Popovich at the moment is showing his skills but also showing his lack of experience in the Elite category racing. Frankly, I wish he hadn't been pushing himself that hard. He's got years and years ahead of him. If only he could take it a little bit easier for now...

Den Brewers

denbrewers

Oh, surely not! But in that particular accident to which I had alluded, the riders life has been saved by virtue of the fact that he's had a helmet on, there's absolutely no doubt about that.

Den Brewers

denbrewers

And that'd be very said indeed, wouldn't it?

brent_dube

Yeah I was thinking why not skip the Giro and go for the Tour.
That is actually a believable story, since I don't really think coke would work that well for performance enhancing when it comes to something like a bike race.

Ohh didn't Pantani win the Giro and the Tour in the same year?

easyrider

Oddly, cocaine use as a performance enhancer goes back to the turn of the last century in bicycle racing. Great pain killer I guess.

Yes, Pantani won both in 1998.

And as for top riders doing both...it looks like Aitor Gonzalez will be riding the Tour this year.

denbrewers

But that was then, remember. Nowadays things are very much different from the way they used to be. Besides, wasnt' Pantani on something back then? Surely he was. A lot of the riders were. But it has all changed. And what have we got now? Now a rider is considered to be a starif he just manages to get in the top 3 at two tours in the season (like Beloki did last year).

Den Brewers

brent_dube

The old days of cycling were just 5 years ago? wowsers.

Flaneur

The phenomenon Den Brewers is referring to is no paradigm shift in Pro Racing- it's just a bunch of well-paid, fragile-ego'ed "stars" without the courage or self-respect to challenge Armstrong in the Alps. The best of the rest- Ullrich and Pantani have excluded themselves, effectively and may never return to their former glories. Shame, because the lack of such quality opposition will affect Armstrong's legacy, as will his abbreviated racing itinerary.
If you never won the Giro, you never made it to the very top as a stage racer.
If you never attempted the double, you didn't even aspire to make it......

Csson

If I recall correctly about the Simoni - Tour issue of last year, I believe Saeco got an early wild-card on the condition that Simoni would do the tour. Since it looked like Simoni would be suspended for the rest of the season Saeco was immediately out of the Tour when the wildcards were presented. When he was cleared it was to late to be re-invited (and they probably didn't want him there either).

Simoni will probably go to the Tour this year though.

/Csson

denbrewers

He surely can't be serious, can he?

denbrewers

Yep. The world has changed considerably in the last 3 years, and so has cycling. The average speed at tours' stages has skyrocketed in the last 2 years. Team tactics has become the major factor in determining the outcome for the race. But all of the riders are only human, remember. It's become mighty difficult to compete now. Because the competition is so great, with stars appearing (and disappearing) with every season. Cycling has become predominantly the team sport. However strong a rider may be, his efforts would amount to nothing if his team-mates don't play shot gun for him - a major shift in the racing paradigm, in a nutshell.

This is not the way things used to be. It used to be every man for himself, didn't it? Nowadays when a rider gets the yellow jersey or 'clicks' the finish line, the first thing he does is to pour forth thanks to his squad, his directors and the doctors. On the contrary, if the rider does not excell at a competition he blames his team for that (and not himself! witness - Pantani at the Giro). And then consider the strict dieting of the peloton riders. Just look at 'em all. Skinny-bony skeletons, weighing in at 125 pounds on average. If you weigh in at over 165 lbs you're practically out of the competition. Just watch T.Magnusen at the Giro - what a h-h-uge bloke he is - especially when viewed in line with other riders, weighing in at well over 180 lbs - and everybody is amazed at how he manages to get going - how he manages to just hold out. You see, such weights - so common in the past - have become a total unheard-of in road cycling. But think about it - your body weight - fat and muscles - is where your energy comes from, especially on flat courses (I'm not talking about mountain stages here). Cut down on fat - and you've robbed yourself of the fuel to to exert enough power - especially over a long time-span (like you would normally do at tours). Now look at the peloton in a race. When there is a sudden gust of wind, every now and then the field just breaks up, with a good half of the riders being unable to maintain the speed of the head of the peloton. This is not the way things used to be. Back then, I remember, there was a saying: 'It's better to drop dead then to loose the wheel of the bloke in front'. And we were always keeping the pack tight. We were not afraid of head- or side-winds. We used to just grit our teeth, bite the bullet and crank away at 28 mph even into the strongest head-winds - by virtue of the fact that we were keeping some fat in our bodies to supply us with all the energy we needed to overcome those winds or hills. Now riders dread these things: fat, head-winds, hills and everything in between. The riders did not used to be afraid of going into solo breakaways in the past - and one bid out of 5 was successful back then. Now the odds have risen to 1/25 for that! You can count by the fingers of your right hand the number of the Elite riders who are able to get away from the peloton - and that's only when they're on top of their best form. In the past there were far more riders notorious for their individual breakaway or TT skills. And for my money, all this is down to the simple fact that riders used to have access to greater supplies of energy stored in their bodies. We used to do a lot of weight-lifting between the seasons - and that paid off hugely in the season. We used to consume a lot of animal fat, lard and the likes. The guys from the peloton don't do any of that anymore, unfortunately. New whims and fashions abound now. There are numerous studies that are even questioning the cyclists' need for muscle strength. I said it to them then, and I say it again here, are they complete nuts?! 'Cause I see a lot of younger riders who get seriously swayed by these attitudes. They frown upon weight-lifting. Their norishment is comparable to that of glamour models, really. And all they do is just cycle - all year-round. But this is all fallacy, of course. 'Cause I see all this is leading them nowhere. A sudden gust of wind - and all the skinny ones start legging far behind and dropping back through the field. You do need strength, the helluva strength for that. You do need body weight for cycling. But my point is, with modern dieting methods and farm produce which is very thin on fats (!) the riders, in my view, do not get the necessary nutrition for the sport - the net result being their inability to maintain their form for the whole season - even during a single tour lasting for several weeks. Where is it all leading to, I wonder? Of course, all the above leaves a lot of ground for controversy, raising more questions then answers. But for the sake of the argument I do believe things used to be very much different in road cycling - even as recently as 5 years ago.

Den Brewers

roadbuzz

:confused:
It was new, perhaps in the '20s, in the TdF. And prior to that, the more successful riders hired riders... essentially making deals on the road, for support.

I think the big difference is that specialization has been taken to a higher level, of late. Could LA ride the Giro, and still do well in the TdF? We'll never know. Maybe if he got 6 TdFs in the books, then he'd be willing to play around and take chances, so to speak.

I agree with your comments about the riders of today compared with those, say, even a decade ago. Top level cyclists have always tended to be avoirdupoisically challenged, but not like the current generation. Riders like Hinault, LeMond, Fignon, Delgado (a climber!), Indurain, heck, even Ullrich in, what, '98(?) didn't have the emaciated look and translucent skin of many of today's top stage racers.

Flaneur

Cycling has become a team sport? Cycling has always been a team sport at the professional level- ask Rik Van Looy, Bernard Hinault or Eddy Merckx about the value of team backing.
Every man for himself? Well only in the individual time trials......
Greg Lemond ushered out the era of the Patrons, not-so-benevolent dictators who ruled the peloton with an iron fist. Guys like Merckx and Anquetil decided which breaks were chased and how fast a pace was set by the Gregari. Sometimes this led to a high overall speed but usually it moderated the tempo, allowing for favours to be bestowed and scores settled- team tactics, in other words.

Paradigm shift- or small evolutionary step? Most riders are sheep, in any era. They follow orthodoxies and do what the directeur sportif tells them to. If everyone else is losing weight, eating fat -free and getting tattoos, it takes a strong character to stand back and watch. Before you know it, the average rider weight has gone down a whole lot. Is that such a big deal? Don't riders eat more race-specifically than they used to? They certainly shouldn't have to carry a lot of fat reserves just to finish a tour.

Tour speeds have gone up....yes, and this is in part due to better road surfaces, improved aerodynamics, better bikes, training regimes and lower workloads on the domestiques who do most of the pulling.....All those skinnier guys riding a bit quicker in the Alps helps to shave the average speed as well.

Skinny guys are weak? You mean weak, like Fausto Coppi? Like Lucho Herrera? Or wouldn't they have been able to live with the modern guys? If skinny guys can't last three weeks, how can the average speeds be rising?

Lets face it, if all the guys weighed 240, the fittest, smartest riders with reasonable teams in support would seperate themselves from the rest and fight out the podium positions between them. The present lightness of the riders may or may not be a fad, like the diet changes. Heavily muscled guys will never win in the mountains and weedy grimpeurs will never appear at Roubaix or leading down the Champs-Elysees.

Present fashions in the Pro bunches may turn out to be momentous changes. It's not too soon for a healthy discussion but it is too soon for a decision, based on the evidence.

easyrider

Wrong. I think that Flaneur has debunked most of the garbage in that post, but I have to add that the assertion that the average weight of a current pro is 125 pounds is certainly not accurate. For every guy that weighs 140 there is a guy that weighs 110? Wrong.

Feel free to post the mean weight of 100 randomly sampled pros (including the names of the riders and their weights and the source for that information) and I might believe it.

brent_dube

Even Roberto Heras weighs 130lbs!

I was looking through the roster on the USPS site and almost everyones weight ranges between 150-180.

VegasCyclist

the light climbers might be in the 130ish range, but I don't recall very many (if any) riders coming in at 125. Sure in the mountains you want to be light weight to compete for stage wins, but the heavier sprinters own the flats bar none.

Csson

He certainly sounds serious, and he probably would have a good chance for a stage win or two.

And guess what Pantani wants to do in July...

Cyclingnews


You mean Magnus Bäckstedt? Yes, he is pretty big (90kg according to his homepage) and he has done a surprisingly good Giro with a few top-5 placings and will hopefully keep the Intergiro jersey until the end.

/Csson

ChipRGW

Pantani may have earned a spot with today's Giro finish.
Nice form.

The commentator on Velonews said "he's losing time, but earning respect..."

easyrider

Earned a spot in what? Not the TdF. Unless, of course he transfers to a team that is already invited. Respect, perhaps. A TdF spot, no.

brent_dube

I don't think he earned a spot in the Giro today either since I think he lost about 20 minutes.

Finally... a mountain stage that had large time gaps. One thing... each mountain stage Simoni would take over... he would jump ahead early, and everyone would be able to stay at the same pace, but just a little behind. The largest lead it seemed he would manage would be about 30 seconds at the top... in comparison to Armstrong's 2 minute wins in the Tour. And thats all I would see in the Vuelta last year... 30 second or so wins on the mountaintop finishes. I know its hard to compare in such a simplistic fashion... but I don't see how easy it would be to challenge Armstrong in the mountains if the performance gap appears to be consistantly so large.

Csson

I bet you didn't watch the stage... He lost 16 minutes, 10 of which was spent on the ground putting himself back in one piece. Just to get back up and continue the descent, and then loose no more than five minutes on the final climb is a great achievement. He finished 23rd of the 97 that made the time cut (35 riders missed the cut).

While I agree that the time gaps have been relatively small each stage, the total gap between Simoni and the rest of the top riders is quite similar to all of Armstrong's victories (Garzelli and Popovych are both more than eight minutes down). I am sure that both Armstrong and Simoni could have put more time into their opponents if they had to. But I don't think it is fair to either Armstrong or Simoni to compare their efforts based on how much time they have won by against other riders.

/Csson

brent_dube

Yeah, that was just a response to the mention of Simoni talking about facing Lance in the mountains.

About Pantani... I don't see to be all that amazing. I mean... I don't see how everyone will look at that and think 'what an awesome rider'. Some riders get right back up after a fall. He may have just been lying there in frusturation, contemplating retiring from the race. (I'm not saying that was the case... but who says it couldn't have been the case? I don't see how he deserves any more respect after that stage) After getting a few minutes rest... I'm sure he was fresher. I don't think he was down for 10 minutes though. The coverage didn't show when he got back on the bike.

Garzelli crashed with him, I believe, and finished 10 minutes ahead of Pantani.

roadbuzz

Is it possible? Or have I just missed it?? A Giro without the midnight raids? There's still a day or two, I guess.

wabbit

I think they raided the Formaggi teams rooms, but found nothing. It was probably for show!

WTG for pantani, he's still had a great giro and I'm glad he didn't bail out. As for simoni, I hope he's this good in the Tour, it'll be great seeing him in the mountains.

bac

Actually, the coverage did show the time gap back to Pantani @ around 11 1/2 minutes - i think. One of the commentators mentioned that since there was a time gap stated, Pantani was back on his bike @ the time. Therefore, I would guess that he was off the bike for around 10 minutes.

To be more precise, Garzelli crashed INTO him. There was no camera shot of the incident, but that is what was reported, and I think that Garzelli also stated this. Garzelli was back on his bike well before Pantani - in fact, most probably right after the crash. That would put the two on even ground regarding their times given the 10 minutes that Pantani spent on the ground.

Anywho, I'm no Pantani fan, but he did show some courage in the face of adversity. This means something to me. I'd like to see him in Le Tour not for this act, but just to see if he really has something for the rest of the riders/teams.

On a side note, I did see that Pantani had an abrasion on the side of his head. I wonder if the helmet saved him from a harder hit????