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Breakaway Strategy Discussion Item #3

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Old 01-14-09, 07:40 AM
  #1  
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Breakaway Strategy Discussion Item #3

the 3rd in a series of failures, little different flavor than 1 and 2.

Situation:

Masters criterium championships, technical criterium with a smallish field of maybe 40, two teams well represented, me with 1 team mate who had a newborn baby (read - hadnt slept in 2-ish weeks). One of the well represented teams is the LSV/Kelly elite amateur squad, who I figure given their #s and horsepower are the guys to watch. This is the Williamsport Criterium for those who are local.

Very early in the race, like 1st 5 laps early, a cat 1 who is riding solo rolls off the front. I know him (I actually live near and ride with his father on occaision). A few laps later, he's joined by a local celebrity racer who wins gobs of races every year, and also is part of a well represented team. I'm on local celeb's wheel bridging, but am hurting, and notice that no LSV guys are with us or up the road, so I back off and float back to the pack. My instincts are always to hammer forward, so I think I'm doing the "smart" racing move by drifting back and will have the LSV guys do my bidding, so to speak.

Back in the pack, LSV never gets organized, rest of field never gets organized, a few desperate bridge attempts, breakaway catches field on last lap, confusion reigns as some in the field know the rules and sprint for 3rd while others look around thinking they've got a lap to go (me), Cat 1 who rolled off solo wins, local celeb finishes 2nd.

What I SHOULD have done:

1) dug deeper, stayed on local celeb's wheel, pulled through as I could, finished with the bronze.
2) known the rules re: being lapped in a crit

What would YOU have done?:

a) dug deeper, stayed on local celeb's wheel, pulled through as you could, finished with the (gold/silver) bronze

b) figured that the well represented team was going to get it done and do what MDcatV did

c) chased Cat 1 rolling off the front right away

d) I'm a sprinter, never would have toyed with the break

e) other

p.s. if these threads are annoying, let me know, I'll stop, but I've got dozens of these that I can post about and I find them more fun/interesting than all FTP all the time threads.
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Old 01-14-09, 07:59 AM
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I can't offer advice but as a newb racer I' m really enjoying these threads.
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Old 01-14-09, 08:06 AM
  #3  
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Always dig deeper unless you're such a one trick pony sprinter that you stand a better chance well rested in the field than 3 up in a break.
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Old 01-14-09, 08:15 AM
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Given that you said you were hurting, I think you made the smart move, played the odds, and it just didn't work out as hoped.

It sounds like there was very good reason to believe the break would get caught. Given that calculation, and the fact you're a good sprinter, deciding to not bury yourself, and bank on the break failing was a reasonable calculation.

If you did bury yourself, the break got caught, and you had nothing left to position yourself for the sprint, you would have regretted that.

You pay your money you take your chances.

In this scenario, I think you were smart to play to your strength, even if it didn't work out as hoped.
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Old 01-14-09, 08:24 AM
  #5  
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+1
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Old 01-14-09, 08:58 AM
  #6  
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Originally Posted by MDcatV
the 3rd in a series of questions that are (shockingly) about riding a bike...
p.s. if these threads are annoying, let me know, I'll stop, but I've got dozens of these that I can post about and I find them more fun/interesting than all FTP all the time threads.
Fixed that for you

I'm really digging this series. As a rider with great break characteristics and an average sprint at best, you have really got me thinking about this next racing season and planning out strategies before I need them.
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Old 01-14-09, 09:17 AM
  #7  
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Just tap through and make the cat1/local celeb duo drive the break for a while. Tell them the kelly team is big and will have to get someone there, so you need to see how things pan out over the first few laps of the break.

Always speak up and strategize with the break members. If they don't like your ideas, make sure your skin is extra tough that day.
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Old 01-14-09, 09:45 AM
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Always dig deeper.....


In one of my previous lives I was an inline speedskater that raced in fields that would be equal to pro 1/2 in cycling. For years the sport (both in US and World championships) was dominated by two brothers that lived in Iowa... to the point that nobody would waste their time (nor could hold) attacking them. One day this skinny junior kid shows up for a big race and starts attacking the pack to the point the two brothers were burning matches reeling him back in. They tried telling him that his attacks were pointless and he should just sit in with the field until the end (thats what they wanted). He replied with something like "ill keep doing these attacks and one day they will stick and I will be stronger for it".

Heres what happened to that kid:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Hedrick
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Old 01-14-09, 09:45 AM
  #9  
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don't stop posting these threads. Also, I'd say good strategy on your part, it's not your fault LSV didn't have their **** together.

As snuff said, though, 3rd in a 3-up sprint is probably better than what you'll see in a 37-up sprint for 3rd. If all it came down to was "digging deeper" then I'd be ****ed. Wait, I think I am ****ed. whatever
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Old 01-14-09, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by MDcatV
p.s. if these threads are annoying, let me know, I'll stop, but I've got dozens of these that I can post about and I find them more fun/interesting than all FTP all the time threads.
Not annoying, just depressing. I'm usually hurting too much to think about anything.
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Old 01-14-09, 10:29 AM
  #11  
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I also enjoy these threads alot more than the Power threads, mainly because I don't have a power meter, but also because these are actually about racing.

In my worthless opinion, I think you did the right thing in regards to the breakaway.
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Old 01-14-09, 10:51 AM
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I've always been told and I believe that when you attack / bridge / chase, you should commit.

Do your thinking _before_ you're in a haze of pain. The pain will always tell you to quit, duh.

FWIW, I missed a very similar move in a crit last year. I did give chase but was unable to catch them. So the lesson is, you can't always tell which move is going to be the one.
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Old 01-14-09, 11:02 AM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by Creakyknees
I've always been told and I believe that when you attack / bridge / chase, you should commit.
I don't agree. Why would you commit to an attack that is doomed to fail?

Lots of time several breaks occur in a race before one that has a chance of sticking develops.

If you attack, and the move develops in a way that is doomed to failure (for example because the wrong people/teams are or are not in it) why would you ride yourself into the ground in futility, as oppossed to sitting up, and looking for the next, potentially winning, move?
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Old 01-14-09, 11:26 AM
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I'd stick on a bridge attempt that looks like it's working. Now I'm a bit different in that I know I can't contribute much to a break, but I think that virtually everyone I'd be racing against would either know that or will realize it after my first super strong pull at 300 watts. Therefore I know that I won't be able to contribute much to guys who annihilate me regularly.

If you were really hurting and weren't really clear of the field (i.e. you see local celeb go and you do three pedal strokes then think twice about it), then it's fine to sit up.

But if you're clear of the field (say over 10 seconds), and there's a really strong guy in front of you, even if you can't pull, you maintain your position. It's better to be the carrot and trying to recover than to be the chaser while trying to recover.

In the case of a Cat 1 and local celeb, you can think about what it takes to bridge as well. I don't have a chart handy but if the break averages, say, 28 mph, and has a 20 or 30 second lead, it'll be really hard to catch them. A break can also up its pace just a bit, causing the gap to stabilize on a chasing field, and this is a very good deterrent to the field.

To catch the break the field has to have a prolonged chase at 32-35 mph or an extreme counter at 35-38 mph, but other than that you're just twiddling your thumbs. If you think there's a team that can pull at those speeds for the required time, okay, fine, but it'll be hard and the team will wipe out much of its strength. With a 100 rider field, it would probably be possible (and it happens regularly). With a smaller field, I think that bridging a decent (30-60 seconds+) gap to a couple strong racers would be difficult.

I have a few internal rules about breaks and chases.
1. Breaks over 10 seconds requires more than one person to bridge. Therefore bridge before it gets way past 10 seconds or wait until various surges closes the gap to something in that range.

2. I have to go totally anaerobic to get across a gap. Sprint across, not TT. Sprinting across a 10 second gap will close it in perhaps 30 seconds, even if the speeds are sort of high. Time trialing across the same gap may take a few minutes. I TT at 23 mph but I can bridge at 30-35+ mph. Hopefully I can go 10+ mph faster than the break for 30 seconds, and that closes a decent gap, maybe 100-150 meters or so. At 28 mph that's about 10 seconds, give or take.

3. Chasing requires incredible speed. You can't "chase" at 28 mph. Leading a chase means going 30-35 mph and rotating through riders quickly as they delve into oxygen debt.

4. If you're in the break, it's much steadier, about the same effort (really, at least if there are more than a couple guys), and you always think (at least I think) that you're going to get swarmed any second. Much better to be there than to be in a single file strung out field.

Of course I rarely make it to winning breaks so my experience is somewhat limited

cdr
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Old 01-14-09, 11:28 AM
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at first I thought you should've gone with the break but now that i think about it, I agree with your decision to sit up. Having someone go OTF in the beginning is doomed 75% of the time and why burn matches early on?

I think these threads would be way more interesting if you didn't tell us the result right away. Let us make a decision then tell us if we wouldve gone OTB
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Old 01-14-09, 11:37 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by MDcatV
Back in the pack, LSV never gets organized, rest of field never gets organized, a few desperate bridge attempts, breakaway catches field on last lap, confusion reigns as some in the field know the rules and sprint for 3rd while others look around thinking they've got a lap to go (me), Cat 1 who rolled off solo wins, local celeb finishes 2nd.
Stupid question: What's the rule in a situation like that, when the break catches the group? Who gets 3rd?

These are great threads. Thanks!
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Old 01-14-09, 12:16 PM
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^ the race ends for everbody on the lap where the winner finishes. So with the guys off the front having lapped the field, the entire pack, including the breakaway, finishes together. The first person across, other than the guys in the break is 3rd.

In other words the pack doesn't do another lap to complete the same number of laps as the break.
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Old 01-14-09, 12:25 PM
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Thanks merlin.
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Old 01-14-09, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
I don't agree. Why would you commit to an attack that is doomed to fail?
...
let's flip that around... why would you attack at all, or chase / bridge, if it's doomed to fail?

Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
...Lots of time several breaks occur in a race before one that has a chance of sticking develops. ...
true, no argument there

Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
...If you attack, and the move develops in a way that is doomed to failure (for example because the wrong people/teams are or are not in it) why would you ride yourself into the ground in futility, as oppossed to sitting up, and looking for the next, potentially winning, move?
I concede this aspect of the point; it's not exactly what I had in mind and I wasn't clear.

I was responding to the OP's point about dropping off of a break that was clearly going strong. IMO, that was a pain-influenced decision, as pain makes cowards of us all. My point about commitment was directed to that - as longas that break's gaining ground or holding steady, why drop back? Sure you can sit on if you're outgunned.

Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
...If you attack, and the move develops in a way that is doomed to failure (for example because the wrong people/teams are or are not in it) why would you ride yourself into the ground in futility, as oppossed to sitting up, and looking for the next, potentially winning, move?
But let me come back at this and see if I can re-state it; when I attack, personally, I don't do it as a feint or probe. I just don't have that many matches to waste. So my philosophy is to wait for the right moment, and strike with full commitment. That still leaves room for good old judgement calls (and bad calls) on "when is the right moment"
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Old 01-14-09, 02:05 PM
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Too much thinking going on IMHO...
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Old 01-14-09, 03:06 PM
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I like to think I'd pick "A" and not "C". You have to think about who is up the road in this case. You have local badass and Cat1. Those odds are better than a couple of Cat3s.
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Old 01-14-09, 03:22 PM
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Tough call, and its easy to be a monday morning quarterback, but with a cat 1 off the front, celebrity racer bridging, small field and a technical criterium, that all adds up to a recipe where a couple of strong guys can stay away, which they did.

I would have tried to stay with the guy and bridge. If you were really hurting, you can always cut a deal with the other two that you won't sprint. They'll let you sit in as long as you can pull through every once in a while.
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Old 01-14-09, 05:19 PM
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+ 1 - Great post / threads, please keep them coming. There is so much racing experience and excellent perspectives to draw from on this site and these threads are some of the few that tap that knowledge and experience. I'm waiting for #4 now!

On related topic, I'm curious if anyone has ever gone after an early prime in a crit and turned around to see that you and another racer are a good 20 seconds ahead of the pack so you kept going to catch the pack similar to the scenario above, but really more opportunistic than planned? I was in a similar situation and it didn't occur to me that I should try and "lap" the field. After reading your post, I realize that nobody would have been expecting that at 10 min into the race (1st prime) and likely would not have realized what was happening up the road at such an early point in the race. I doubt anyone would have chased as only the two of us went for the prime and I won it. Then, we both looked at each other and said, "there's no way we can stay away another 30 minutes." However, I'm sure we could have pushed hard for another 3 min and caught the back of the field....that didn't even occur to me. Anyone ever do that off a prime opportunistically?
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Old 01-14-09, 05:36 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by dgearhart
+ 1 - Great post / threads, please keep them coming. There is so much racing experience and excellent perspectives to draw from on this site and these threads are some of the few that tap that knowledge and experience. I'm waiting for #4 now!

On related topic, I'm curious if anyone has ever gone after an early prime in a crit and turned around to see that you and another racer are a good 20 seconds ahead of the pack so you kept going to catch the pack similar to the scenario above, but really more opportunistic than planned? I was in a similar situation and it didn't occur to me that I should try and "lap" the field. After reading your post, I realize that nobody would have been expecting that at 10 min into the race (1st prime) and likely would not have realized what was happening up the road at such an early point in the race. I doubt anyone would have chased as only the two of us went for the prime and I won it. Then, we both looked at each other and said, "there's no way we can stay away another 30 minutes." However, I'm sure we could have pushed hard for another 3 min and caught the back of the field....that didn't even occur to me. Anyone ever do that off a prime opportunistically?
I've never tried it, but I've seen it done sucessfully a couple of times. We have a series where you get points for primes that accumulate over the course of the series towards the "sprinters jersey" and they don't count toward the overall winners jersey points. So, a couple of guys went for the prime and then stayed away for the last 25 minutes of a 45 + 3 lap crit. One of the guys ended up with the leading the sprinters classification as well as the overall after that race. (I would add that, in this series, rarely do the overall contenders contest the primes).

Of course, I've seen the more popular attack after the prime sprinters sit up. I usually end up sitting up after a prime, but I've also never been with other riders who seemed like they wanted to keep pushing on instead of falling back into the pack. Maybe I'll give it a go this season...
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Old 01-14-09, 05:44 PM
  #25  
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^ No, but I was wondering/fantasizing about a similar scenario. As long as the judge knew you were +1 lap; could you imagine doing all that work to earn a spot at 49th cause they were sleeping at the line?
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