Devil

I was blown away by this: https://www.cyclingnews.com/road.php?...04/asturias045

I think the top four in this year's Tour is going to look like this:

1) Lance
and then, in an order yet to be determined:

Mayo
Hamilton
Ullrich

Your thoughts (not just on my prediction, but on the Cyclingnews article as well)?

smeghead

I agree, I think Lance will win #6 but he will have a fight on his hands.
1) Armstrong
2) Ullrich
3) Hamilton
4) Mayo
I'm tipping Mayo to take the alp d'huez time trial but have you notice sometimes when pure climbers tip their hats to be "men of all seasons" they sometimes loose that zip on the climbs that makes them brilliant climbers. I hope this isn't the case with Mayo!

Raiyn

Mayo's a more serious threat to my wasitline. j/k I think the most serious threat to Lance will be Jan Ullrich. I think the "bridesmaid" is going to make it exceedingly tough on Mr. Armstrong

Gustaf

This is exactly what I have been trying to tell my friends. It is the year of Iban Mayo.

TrekRider

What if Saeco lets Damiano Cunego ride as the leader? Probably a slim chance of that, but don't you think he'd give them all a run?

brent_dube

No way. Not even if he spent this year training for the TDF instead of racing the Giro.

Devil

I think Cunego could hang in the mountains, but he would be crushed in the time trials.

Cunego won't be in this year's Tour anyways - Saeco management determined this a while ago (before the Giro).

Grampy™

How can Saeco keep him off of the Tour team? Sounds like a dumb decision. Cunego was showing some great form/abilities in the Giro. He deserves to be on the Tour team.

brent_dube

He probably doesn't want to ride the Tour, because I doubt he would have much gas left for the Olympics, the Vuelta, or the Worlds

Laggard

He's too young to be competitive in two grand tours. He needs another two or three years of tour riding.

don d.

Up hill, down hill, or in a steel cage globe at the circus, it's still a time trial and he'll be setting his own pace. There won't be any dancing, jumping, or surging to create gaps; all the things climbers do to get their advantage. The one thing the greyhounds will have to help them is plenty of rabbits to catch and pass.

But he still has to be able to time trial with the best to win. I think his teammate Zubeldia has as good if not a better chance at victory.

The Alp d'Huez TT is a big prize that all the top riders will be gunning for. Heras and all the usual suspects, plus some like the harlequin, Virenque. I wouldn't put it past Virenque to target his peak form for this one day.

P. B. Walker

I predict:

1. Armstrong
2. Hamilton
3. Mayo
4. Ullrich

bac

Yup, there's no question that Mayo could be the man this year. The issue with Mayo, and for that matter, the rest of the contenders is that we simply don't know how much better/worse they've gotten over the past year. If Mayo can TT better, and climbs like he did last year, he could be the man.

However, let's not forget about Heras, Beloki, Jan, Tyler and Vino. How about a few long shots? What about a shocker from Moreau, McGee, or Simoni?

I can't wait.

Devil

I've decided on my formal prediction for the top five.

1) Lance
2) Ullrich
3) Hamilton
4) Mayo
5) Heras

I simply don't see how anybody except for Lance is going to beat Jan.

karesz3

I hate to say this, but I think Ulrich got it right this year. He timed everything perfectly, and the media made him an underdog again. This took a lot of pressure off the man, and now he can quietly train for the big event. Don't forget that this year, the real test doesn't start till later into the race. You actually have to reach your peak half way through. Part of me wants Lance to take this one, but Jan is looking very strong and focused. Only the TTT rule change gives Mayo any hope at all.

Cheers

Smoothie104

Mayo was a 25 to 1 underdog last month at mrbookmaker.com Now his odds are listed @ 12 to 1

don d.

Well, since we're getting close to the BIG race, some thoughts:

Ullrich and Armstrong need little introduction. Ullrich looks much the same this year as last, as does Armstrong.

Hamilton has proven that he has the capacity to stay with the Ullrich/Armstrong duo in the mountains and in the time trials. The big question mark for Tyler will be his team. How will they do in the TTT and how will they support him in the mountains? The nice thing about having so many quality teams and riders is that it is very possible to use the other teams in the mountains and to play off their moves. As T-Mobile and USPS and Euskaltel punch it out, Tyler can ride for spoils. But Phonak's TTT will make or break Tyler's fortunes this year IMHO.

Off the top of my head, only two other teams that have podium contenders can say for sure that their teams will keep them in contention in the TTT and they are T-Mobile and USPS. If Tyler's team does their job, and if Tyler rides up to expectations, meaning rides better than last year when he was injured, he is one of three main podium contenders with Jan and Lance.

The other rider who will try to crash the podium party is Vino. He is a fighter who will take full advantage of his role as queen to Jan's king. He makes Jan's job in the mountains much easier and T-Mobiles options more flexible.

Everyone else has something to prove. Mayo can climb, but hasn't shown the big TT capabilities. Heras can climb, has improved in the TT and is arguably as good as if not better than Mayo in the TT, so I would rate him ~ even with Mayo in potential. Zubeldia can climb and TT, so if Euskaltel brings a good team for the TTT like they are planning, he could surprise.

One rider I forgot is Botero. What if he shows up this year? He can kick a$$ in the TT and climb with the best. But, unfortunately, ya can't count on him.

Jackshe, Basso, Sastre, Mancebo, perhaps Michael Rodgers, perhaps Moreau, ma-a-a-a-ybee Simoni will fight it out for 8-10.

With Lance as the undeniable favorite, the real competition in my mind should be between Tyler and Jan for 2nd, with Vino, Mayo, Zubeldia and Heras trying to get onto the podium, and filling out the top 7.

I think CSC looks good for the teams prize.

Devil

don d., I agree with a lot of what you say.

But about Tyler, and god knows I like him, and we share the same name, but I don't foresee him beating Ullrich. I definitely see him in third place though.

I especially agree about Mayo and Heras.

lotek 

I still have doubts about Vino.
No, not his ability,or talent, but his absolute willingness
to sacrafice for Jan. I think Vino will jump on any oppertunity
to podium, Jan be damned. Think Aitor Gonzales or this years
Giro.
Tyler will have Phonak riding for him exclusively and I see him
as a real threat to Lance, IF (and its a big if) he can stay healthy
for the entire tour.
Lance is going to be there with a vengance. I believe he wants to
make up for last years mistakes, and will come loaded for bear.
I see Heras as the dark horse here, team on paper looks very
good but lets see what they can do on tarmac. . .

Marty

SipperPhoto

Man, this is shaping up to be one of the better tours... of course I have been saying that the past 4 or 5 years now...

Here's my prediction for top 5

1. Armstrong
2. Hamilton-- I really think he is gonna surprise some people.
3. Ullrich
4. Mayo
5. Heras-- once again... a bit of a darkhorse.. seems to have agood team... he may sneak up higher as everyone will be watching my top 3 picks

jeff