Another 44 yo old heavyweight checking in ... I'm 6'-1" and ~230 lbs and average about 17 mph on 40 milers from garage to garage. When I'm riding in the flats I can maintain a 20 mph pace without killing myself. Sometimes I think about starting my computer when I'm down on the bike trail just so that I can increase my average speed, but I try not to worry about the ave speed and look more for the total miles I put in.
The other day a gal about 5'2" passed me when I was going 20 mph and I thought I would catch her after a couple of miles. I kept her in my sights but never caught up.... Her little legs seemed to move her along quite well. Anyway, It's always motivating to chase someone.
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Uphill or downhill; headwind or tailwind; Pavement or Dirt ... it's all good.