I didn't race that course last year, but I saw it and I remember the finishing straight being long, long, and long. Everybody was going too early.
My advice isn't worth much, but I prefer to be just a bit further back that far out. Maybe top 5 in the last corner, and then moving up as people die on the front through the final stretch, popping out in the last however many meters, depending on your sprint. With that long of a run-in and a stiff headwind, it'd be nerve-wracking, but the smart thing to do is probably sit in for a bit and then go from a bit further back around everyone else who went too early. It'll be easier to pick wheels as the season goes on too, I'm sure.
I'd also blame the first two races on poor luck rather than poor positioning or skill.