It's just a theory that fits the facts as published. Unless there are even more facts that you're withholding. In addition to, "I heard a loud pop followed by a good hissssss," we've now learned that there was a "rip in the tread." Losing a chunk of rubber out of the tread wouldn't affect the integrity of the tire. Was the Sharp Thingie(tm) still in the tire? Were the cords cut?
The answer is 42... If you want a better answer, you need to ask a better question.