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Old 07-23-09, 10:16 AM
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dt4211
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I think Armstrong will likely hold onto third. Wiggins has been impressive, but was dropped pretty badly yesterday. And while he's been able to hang on the wheel of the leaders most stages, he hasn't show that he can attack and make up time on the better climbers.

Kloden isn't going to attack to make up time. He'll stick with Lance and probably ride support for him.

That leaves Frank Schleck. He might be a strong enough climber to drop Lance, but he'll have to do it all on his own. Andy is too far out of first to have any shot at it, so his goal is going to be to ride defensively. He only has a minute on Armstrong, so he's not going to spend his energy towing Frank (and Lance) up the mountain, risking his own podium spot. So Frank is going to have to be strong enough to attack on his own and drop the pair of Armstrong and Kloden working together. My bet would be against that.

Edit: The wildcard would be if Lance tried to attack to move up to second. If he did that, he could blow himself out and be vulnerable to a counterattack from Frank. But given the low likelihood that Lance would be able to outclimb Andy and get a full minute on him, I'd say Lance will also probably be riding defensively just to preserve his podium finish.
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