LL is a really good TTer, a decent climber - yet has no killer instinct in the Grand Tours. I thought that in the Giro he just couldn't or wouldn't go when others did.
He focuses on the ToC and should have an easier time with less competition. As long as he gets enough team support.
I think the ToC is committing suicide by changing dates. In late May the Sierra passes are still closed with snow. I'd like to see a mountaintop finish in the ToC; they've lacked that so far. Don't know where they'd do one, maybe a Tahoe area ski resort.