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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 03-25-18, 03:06 PM
  #2576  
tyrion
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Who needs studies at all when WAGs and specious arguments from the AV promoters are available in press releases to "support" predictions of significantly reduced injuries, damage and fatalities?
I do.
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Old 03-25-18, 03:42 PM
  #2577  
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I'm still waiting for Santa Claus to leave a Plymouth Duster parked by the house with a bow on it.
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Old 03-25-18, 03:49 PM
  #2578  
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
And yet, 480,000 people in the US die from smoking related causes, every year. Including 41,000 from second hand smoke.
Eight MILLION ways to die in the naked city, wasn't that the line?
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Old 03-25-18, 03:52 PM
  #2579  
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Originally Posted by Road Fan
But people without licenses can just call an Uber.
I read that Uber is trying to get back into the Catalonian market just as rioting is ramping up over the independence movement.

That boy's not all there, Margie.
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Old 03-25-18, 06:03 PM
  #2580  
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Even if one agrees with Dr. John Ioannidis, that in no way supports cherry picking studies to support a desired conclusion.
You're going to believe second-hand cigarette smoke kills but science is not on your side unless you cherry pick studies.
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Old 03-25-18, 06:22 PM
  #2581  
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JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute,
Volume 105, Issue 24, 18 December 2013
Pages 1844–1846, https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djt365
Published: 06 December 2013

No Clear Link Between Passive Smoking and Lung Cancer

Judy Peres

A large prospective cohort study of more than 76,000 women confirmed a strong association between cigarette smoking and lung cancer but found no link between the disease and secondhand smoke.

The fact that passive smoking may not be strongly associated with lung cancer points to a need to find other risk factors for the disease [in nonsmokers], said Ange Wang, the Stanford University medical student who presented the study at the June 2013 meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago.

Investigators from Stanford and other research centers looked at data from the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (WHI-OS). Among 93,676 women aged 50-79 years at enrollment, the study had complete smoking and covariate data (including passive smoking exposure in childhood, adult home, and work) for 76,304 participants. Of those, 901 developed lung cancer over 10.5 mean years of follow-up.

The incidence of lung cancer was 13 times higher in current smokers and four times higher in former smokers than in never-smokers, and the relationship for both current and former smokers depended on level of exposure. However, among women who had never smoked, exposure to passive smoking overall, and to most categories of passive smoking, did not statistically significantly increase lung cancer risk. The only category of exposure that showed a trend toward increased risk was living in the same house with a smoker for 30 years or more.
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Old 03-25-18, 06:27 PM
  #2582  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
Which is why a a lot of hand-wringing about safety and health is ridiculous.

However ... in many cases (eleven out of twelve by your math) the people who die from smoking Chose to smoke.

To them, the reward justified the risk ... sort of like with drivers and cyclists.
So true.

Similar numbers for those that die from second hand as those from autos though. Guessing most of those have no choice.
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Old 03-25-18, 06:31 PM
  #2583  
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
I'm still waiting for Santa Claus to leave a Plymouth Duster parked by the house with a bow on it.
I could go for a late 60's early 70's Dart.
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Old 03-25-18, 06:37 PM
  #2584  
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From the above, “We’ve gotten smoking out of bars and restaurants on the basis of the fact that you and I and other nonsmokers don’t want to die,” said Dr. Gerard Silvestri but notes that, “The reality is, we probably won’t.”

That may be as close to the similarity between the inherent dangers of second-hand cigarette smoke and a computer-driven Uber cars actually are.

The above cancer study did find that if you lived in your parents house for 20 years -- and they smoked like chimneys -- and after moving out you went to work as a bartender in a smoky nightclub, then perhaps you might get cancer and it might well be linked to all passive cigarette smoke you'd been exposed to. However, even if you live in a town full of computer driven Uber cars, you may not be at any greater risk of be run over at all but you can suddenly step out in front of a computer-driven car and be killed, just as you would with an ordinary driver behind the wheel.
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Old 03-25-18, 11:04 PM
  #2585  
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Originally Posted by Road Fan
Kind of straightforward, actually, but not simple.
Great explanation, except for the fact that she was in the left hand lane and not behind anything as she crossed that lane.

That is where the LIDAR failed.
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Old 03-26-18, 02:56 AM
  #2586  
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
I could go for a late 60's early 70's Dart.
I had a '69 4-door as well as a 1972 Duster Twister after that, both 225 Slant Sixes.
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Old 03-26-18, 04:37 AM
  #2587  
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Why wouldn't it also detect the ball and at least slow to reduce any issues from that roadway incursion? It's not going to have enough data to be sure it's a one pound, bouncy soccer ball and not a ~200 pound boulder at the front of a rockslide, after all.



Not likely; ever used NIR night vision? Plenty of clothing that's black to visible light is highly reflective to NIR. The range on the LiDAR unit is 120m, so even if it failed to predict her path, she was in the AV's lane well within LiDAR range, with no close background to mask her return. Even if it didn't know what she was, why wouldn't the algorithm try to avoid any solid object in the roadway whenever possible? It wasn't being tailgated, so no undue risk in maximum braking, and the other lanes were empty, so swerving was definitely an option as well. Even going over the curb and potentially into a ditch or small tree should be a far preferable alternative to hitting something roughly 5' tall and about the same wide that just might be alive.

No, you do not understand what I'm saying. I'm talking about FAR infrared, not NEAR infrared. I have been in vehicle evaluations of both. FIR does not depend on reflection of electromagnetic waves from an illuminator. It depends on detection of radiation from the human body due to the heat generated in the body. It is a passive sensor. Clothing is irrelevant. That sensor could have detected the woman when she was on the median.

I agree, the system should have responded as soon as she came out of the brush. I also believe it should have been capable of tracking her while she was in the brush, before she stepped off the curb.

Another point is, night VISION is for creating an image that will be presented to a human observer. NIR SENSING can also be for an optical sensor that gathers information about objects within the field of view, encodes it into a formatted data stream, AND PRESENTS THE DATA TO AN IMAGE PROCESSING ALGORITHM. The resulting difference in functionalities is huge.
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Old 03-26-18, 04:57 AM
  #2588  
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Originally Posted by rgconner
Great explanation, except for the fact that she was in the left hand lane and not behind anything as she crossed that lane.

That is where the LIDAR failed.
Yes, at that point the LIDAR failed, as well as possibly the microwave radar. One wonders if the system had been turned off or was not in operation.

My point is that the system should have been detecting her presence, position, and motion early enough to know if an effective emergency response was feasible. It should have prepared the brakes, interior, occupant restraints and steering and possibly the suspension for fast maneuvering or emergency braking, eliminating a few seconds of delay and enabling sudden braking as close as possible to the general 1 g limit of the base vehicle.

At 40 mph she was traveling 16 m/s. With 10 m/s maximum deceleration, the car would have had to achieve and maintain it for 1.6 seconds to stop before intersecting with her path (i.e. hitting her). That level of emergency braking response needs to be initiated within the vehicle when a pre-collision situation is identified by the algorithm.

Yes the LIDAR failed, but the entire Uber car system failed if it did not initiate a similar chain of events. These are the steps that are necessary in lower levels of automated vehicle, and based on vehicle physics should still be needed with high levels of automation.
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Old 03-26-18, 08:25 AM
  #2589  
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For those of you blaming the victim, what is really the technical difference between this situation and a bicycle traveling properly down the road in the same lane as the AV? The cyclist would present a smaller detection area to the AV, and would be going much slower than 38 mph, as to almost be "standing still." If the Uber AV can mow down a pedestrian traveling perpendicularly to the flow of traffic, it can also mow down a cyclist traveling the correct direction down the road. I would not want to be a cyclist in AZ right now.
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Old 03-26-18, 10:06 AM
  #2590  
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Originally Posted by McBTC
What could you do if you were driving along within the speed limit and a j-walker dressed in black carrying a bike on a dark night suddenly stepped off a median into the path of your car? Is that something that you as a human with all that awesome brainpower at your disposal should obviously have anticipated?
if you watch the video that is not what happened. my take, based on the video, and the entire situation, is that an alert driver could have avoided (swerved) or minimized (braked) the collision.
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Old 03-26-18, 10:24 AM
  #2591  
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
if you watch the video that is not what happened. my take, based on the video, and the entire situation, is that an alert driver could have avoided (swerved) or minimized (braked) the collision.
Suddenly swerving and suddenly slamming on the brakes can in various circumstances be very problematical. Under these circumstances, it does not seem like slamming on the brakes would have caused problems but it's not obvious that it would have prevented the collision... according to a car stopping calculator, at 38 mph it would have taken 110' to haul the car to a stop whereas someone stepping out in front of a moving car may be hit before the driver can even hit the brakes (supposed to take about a second and in that time the driver already would have gone 37 feet).
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Old 03-26-18, 10:29 AM
  #2592  
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"While Tempe police haven’t determined whether Uber was at fault, they did initially say the accident was likely unavoidable." ~WSJ
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Old 03-26-18, 11:02 AM
  #2593  
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Originally Posted by McBTC
"While Tempe police haven’t determined whether Uber was at fault, they did initially say the accident was likely unavoidable." ~WSJ
Uh, yeah, sure.

I'm beginning to think that early San Francisco newspaper report came from a reporter that was accompanied by an Uber rep who came to Tempe with lots of cash.

Anyone check to see if the Tempe PD chief is driving a new car or boat?
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Old 03-26-18, 11:10 AM
  #2594  
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Originally Posted by genec
Uh, yeah, sure.

I'm beginning to think that early San Francisco newspaper report came from a reporter that was accompanied by an Uber rep who came to Tempe with lots of cash.

Anyone check to see if the Tempe PD chief is driving a new car or boat?
Hanlon's razor.

If you start with the premise that "accidents" are almost never the fault of the driver, even automated drivers, no cash required.

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Old 03-26-18, 11:33 AM
  #2595  
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Hanlon's razor.

If you start with the premise that "accidents" are almost never the fault of the driver, even automated drivers, no cash required.

-mr. bill
Keep in mind that the early report was an "exclusive." (ie, money or "favors" likely involved)

No doubt the chief focused on the legality of the issue, not the fault. Legally, the ped should not have been there. Never mind that the car should have seen the ped long before there was an "accident."
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Old 03-26-18, 11:45 AM
  #2596  
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Originally Posted by genec
Keep in mind that the early report was an "exclusive." (ie, money or "favors" likely involved)

No doubt the chief focused on the legality of the issue, not the fault. Legally, the ped should not have been there. Never mind that the car should have seen the ped long before there was an "accident."
Exclusive does not imply "money or 'favors' likely involved." It implies first, important, new information, aka "scoop."

As far as the "never mind," this:

Drivers to exercise due care

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Old 03-26-18, 11:59 AM
  #2597  
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Originally Posted by genec
Uh, yeah, sure.

I'm beginning to think that early San Francisco newspaper report came from a reporter that was accompanied by an Uber rep who came to Tempe with lots of cash.

Anyone check to see if the Tempe PD chief is driving a new car or boat?
Originally Posted by genec
Keep in mind that the early report was an "exclusive." (ie, money or "favors" likely involved).
ILTB is sharing the conspiracy koolaid, it appears.

=============================

Anybody according immediate statements as having value aren't careful readers of the media.

Last edited by njkayaker; 03-26-18 at 12:03 PM.
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Old 03-26-18, 12:01 PM
  #2598  
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
As far as the "never mind," this:

Drivers to exercise due care
"Never mind" does mean Never Mind! as well as f-k the pedestrian victim! to the Apologists for the the AV promoters. Some of their "Never Mind!" responses can be read on this and the other related thread on A&S.

The AV promoter apologists come and go on this list but their refrain is consistent - ignore the obvious, accept as gospel the rush to judgement attitude of the local police chief, make up a bogus accident scenario, and/or place all fault, blame and responsibilities on the pedestrian and make excuses for Uber.
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Old 03-26-18, 12:04 PM
  #2599  
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Waymo CEO On Uber Crash: Our Self-Driving Car Would Have Avoided Pedestrian

Hopefully they've made an effort to recreate the incident. But, this sounds like a limitation specific to Uber.
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Old 03-26-18, 12:14 PM
  #2600  
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Originally Posted by njkayaker
ILTB is sharing the conspiracy koolaid, it appears.
I previously responded to another poster who also made bogus aspersions about conspiracy mongering on this subject. See Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

What I believe is that the Tempe police chief showed very poor judgement by drawing her rush to judgement and questionable conclusion from the poor quality dash cam video and the statement of the distracted driver and going on the record with it in a peculiar "exclusive" to an out of town newspaper- “it’s very clear it would have been difficult to avoid this collision in any kind of mode (autonomous or human-driven) based on how she came from the shadows right into the roadway.”

Her "motive" was probably her own stupidity.
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