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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 03-30-18, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by genec
Is it programmed with the above laws in mind, to hit objects, such as people, or bikes, not in compliance with jaywalking laws?
IOW, programming for the reasonably unexpected traffic obstacles like jaywalkers and others not in compliance with the laws or the last mapping session (or the programming protocols); or AVs programmed and/or operated by jackasses?
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Old 03-30-18, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
IOW, programming for the reasonably unexpected traffic obstacles like jaywalkers and others not in compliance with the laws or the last mapping session (or the programming protocols); or AVs programmed and/or operated by jackasses?
No doubt.


Uber has operated in jackass mode while circumventing the taxi laws of quite a few cities... why should they stop now.

Meanwhile Waymo seems to acting more the "adult" with their approach. Of course time and testing will tell.
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Old 03-30-18, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by McBTC
snip and a pedestrian with diminished mental capacity who ambled out in front of a moving vehicle, suddenly appearing out of nowhere in the dead of night.
Originally Posted by McBTC
Jaywalking is a choice and there may be consequences. A homeless person probably has made a lot of bad choices throughout life. One of the consequences is possibly being hit by a car--e.g.,



and,
what is your problem?..why the victim blaming?

where do you get diminished capacity?? Just because someone is homeless?

And where do you get that it is ok to killed (which is what happened here) because you are homeless. A significant number of homeless work and function. True many have issues with mental health and addiction

What is scary is how many people in this country are a few events a way from homelessness. Lose a job, get injured and can't work, lose an apartment at reasonable rent etc.

The bottom line is the UBER AV systems utterly and totally failed, not even slowing down immediately before impact. Many modern, no AV cars would have stopped (Subaru Eyesite, Volvo Citisafe, etc)

Uber's failsafe driver failed not watching the road for about 8 of the 10 seconds before impact

Beyond that the video show a situation that an alert human driver could have avoided or mitigated

AV have been promoted as safer due to having greater sensor capacity than humans. In this case it AV was a fail
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Old 03-30-18, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by genec
No doubt.


Uber has operated in jackass mode while circumventing the taxi laws of quite a few cities... why should they stop now.

Meanwhile Waymo seems to acting more the "adult" with their approach. Of course time and testing will tell.
Uber has been in jackass mode for a long time when dealing with their own employees too, both in the office and driving the vehicles.

Google "jackassery/attitude" is off the public scrutiny hook so far as their ride-hail prototype vehicles, since they have not been operating a so-called disruptive transportation/ride-hail business (Uber), or offering their prototype AV products for sale to the public (Tesla), and maybe never will beyond the prototypes being tested on public roads.

They might bite the bullet and cut their losses on AV software development and hope to sell/lease their mapping capabilities to whatever organizations want it for their AV schemes.
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Old 03-30-18, 11:33 AM
  #2805  
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SF Chronicle editorial yesterday on this issue: https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/...h-12792014.php
Obviously the editors of the newspaper are not sticking with the "exclusive" story they got from the Tempe police chief and previously published.
Extract:
"Experts have suggested that the Uber vehicle’s sensors should have spotted the pedestrian, a 49-year-old woman named Elaine Herzberg, before the vehicle struck her.
Before any new permits are issued in California, there must be a full accounting of how the technology failed in the Tempe tragedy. The company must also convince regulators that it won’t happen again.

State regulators shouldn’t limit their scrutiny to Uber, either."
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Old 03-30-18, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
what is your problem?..why the victim blaming?

where do you get diminished capacity?? Just because someone is homeless?

And where do you get that it is ok to killed (which is what happened here) because you are homeless. A significant number of homeless work and function. True many have issues with mental health and addiction

What is scary is how many people in this country are a few events a way from homelessness. Lose a job, get injured and can't work, lose an apartment at reasonable rent etc.

The bottom line is the UBER AV systems utterly and totally failed, not even slowing down immediately before impact. Many modern, no AV cars would have stopped (Subaru Eyesite, Volvo Citisafe, etc)

Uber's failsafe driver failed not watching the road for about 8 of the 10 seconds before impact

Beyond that the video show a situation that an alert human driver could have avoided or mitigated

AV have been promoted as safer due to having greater sensor capacity than humans. In this case it AV was a fail
Just the possibility that when you step out in front of the only car on a 7-lane (including offramps) divided roadway at 10P wearing black you're probably an idiot. On a personal level we can feel sorry for the person but as a society we shouldn't base economic decisions on the actions of idiots. If humans could avoid such accidents, there wouldn't be such accidents but... we know there are numerous such accidents, which is why jaywalking is illegal.

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Old 03-30-18, 11:42 AM
  #2807  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Uber has been in jackass mode for a long time when dealing with their own employees too, both in the office and driving the vehicles.

Google "jackassery/attitude" is off the public scrutiny hook so far as their ride-hail prototype vehicles, since they have not been operating a so-called disruptive transportation/ride-hail business (Uber), or offering their prototype AV products for sale to the public (Tesla), and maybe never will beyond the prototypes being tested on public roads.

They might bite the bullet and cut their losses on AV software development and hope to sell/lease their mapping capabilities to whatever organizations want it for their AV schemes.
No telling what their future plans are... but right now they have the best mileage/incident record... achieving 5000 miles+ before requiring intervention by a human.

Uber had a difficult time going 13 miles before intervention was required.

GM is holding to their 2020 release date.

Tesla is not yet offering anything more than advanced cruise control, NOT self driving. Technically, they are not a player. Anyone trying to include Tesla in any review of AV, has not seen their warnings to drivers in the manual about "Autopilot."

Warnings — there are lots of warnings. Right from the start, whether you're looking at the owner's manual or the on-screen prompts in the car, Tesla points out that Autopilot and the subservient Autosteer programs are in beta. That means they have not been fully tested and are not considered ready for final release. There are warnings on-screen when you set up the system and warnings in the dash when you engage Autopilot.
https://www.tomsguide.com/us/how-to-...view-3870.html
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/...rica_en_us.pdf
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Old 03-30-18, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
No telling what their future plans are... but right now they have the best mileage/incident record... achieving 5000 miles+ before requiring intervention by a human.

Uber had a difficult time going 13 miles before intervention was required.

GM is holding to their 2020 release date.

Tesla is not yet offering anything more than advanced cruise control, NOT self driving. Technically, they are not a player. Anyone trying to include Tesla in any review of AV, has not seen their warnings to drivers in the manual about "Autopilot."


https://www.tomsguide.com/us/how-to-...view-3870.html
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/...rica_en_us.pdf
Yet they are pushing it as hands off driving even as it may be involved in another tesla fatality https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/...out-autopilot/

and Cadillac is advertising it's no hands high way driving capability
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Old 03-30-18, 12:14 PM
  #2809  
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Originally Posted by genec
Tesla is not yet offering anything more than advanced cruise control, NOT self driving. Technically, they are not a player. Anyone trying to include Tesla in any review of AV, has not seen their warnings to drivers in the manual about "Autopilot."
All true but Tesla has been selling its alleged "self driving capability" for awhile now. https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/tesla...ng-capability/
https://www.tesla.com/autopilot


I wouldn't doubt that the Uber "safety backup driver" was also warned to keep his/her eyes on the road and be ready to take control of the vehicle operation. Didn't work in AZ for Uber, didn't work (apparently) in the the recent fiery one-car Tesla crash in California. ONLY ON ABC7NEWS.COM: Victim who died in Tesla crash had complained about auto-pilot | abc7news.com
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Old 03-30-18, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
Yet they are pushing it as hands off driving even as it may be involved in another tesla fatality https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/...out-autopilot/

and Cadillac is advertising it's no hands high way driving capability
Maybe in their marketing... if you go to their website for instance, they claim to have all the sensors and features; but the manual has copious warnings about using this optional feature, and they require the driver to maintain hands on.

Highway driving is still not "fully autonomous." I suspect Cadillac also has copious warnings and requirements for the driver.

This is yet another case of marketeers selling the sizzle.
Back in the day when I was doing smartphone designs I would often want to choke members of the marketing team for the "trash" they put forth regarding what smart phones can and cannot do... in fact, to this day, in spite of having a late model Samsung (the wife has an iphone) we still do not "dictate" messages to our phones, nor do we ask "Siri" to find stuff for us... and I chuckle at the results when friends and relatives do this on their respective smart phones. Technology to get a device to speak and understand speech is "not quite there yet." Why we assume that the skills for a computer(s) to drive a car are right around the corner just baffles me.

Oh, I think it will happen... but I suspect we are still at least a decade out.

And of course with this in mind... we are just as likely to see GM slip their AV date delivery promises too. They may put something in place and claim to meet their own deadline... but common use... is still well out. Heck there are still plenty of states that won't even allow AV use... and we know how fast law legislation isn't.

I think when we first starting discussing all this in earnest, back in '16 and '17, the speculation was that such tech was "20 years out..." That should put it into '36 or '37, not '25. Even adding 10 years to the GM claim of '25 still puts common use out until '35 at the earliest... again, providing that the laws of most states change.

Last edited by genec; 03-30-18 at 12:44 PM.
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Old 03-30-18, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
The noticeable phrase is "self-driving hardware";
It doesn't say anything about the software being capable.

I'm very cynical about Tesla's claim they can get by with only radar and cameras, and omit LIDAR.
It looks like a badly thought out cost savings.
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Old 03-30-18, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
Maybe in their marketing... if you go to their website for instance, they claim to have all the sensors and features; but the manual has copious warnings about using this optional feature, and they require the driver to maintain hands on.

Highway driving is still not "fully autonomous." I suspect Cadillac also has copious warnings and requirements for the driver.

This is yet another case of marketeers selling the sizzle.
Back in the day when I was doing smartphone designs I would often want to choke members of the marketing team for the "trash" they put forth regarding what smart phones can and cannot do... in fact, to this day, in spite of having a late model Samsung (the wife has an iphone) we still do not "dictate" messages to our phones, nor do we ask "Siri" to find stuff for us... and I chuckle at the results when friends and relatives do this on their respective smart phones. Technology to get a device to speak and understand speech is "not quite there yet." Why we assume that the skills for a computer(s) to drive a car are right around the corner just baffles me.

Oh, I think it will happen... but I suspect we are still at least a decade out.

And of course with this in mind... we are just as likely to see GM slip their AV date delivery promises too. They may put something in place and claim to meet their own deadline... but common use... is still well out. Heck there are still plenty of states that won't even allow AV use... and we know how fast law legislation isn't.

I think when we first starting discussing all this in earnest, back in '16 and '17, the speculation was that such tech was "20 years out..." That should put it into '36 or '37, not '25. Even adding 10 years to the GM claim of '25 still puts common use out until '35 at the earliest... again, providing that the laws of most states change.
Cadillac is clearly marketing it as here and usable

this video says pay attention and don't use hand held devices


this video says "Introducing Cadillac Super Cruise™, the first true hands-free driving system for the highway. Using precision LiDAR mapping data, a state-of-the-art driver attention system, and a network of camera and radar sensors, Super Cruise™ is unlike any other driver assistance system"


this one shows the driver crossing his arms after engagin
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Old 03-30-18, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
I think when we first starting discussing all this in earnest, back in '16 and '17, the speculation was that such tech was "20 years out..." That should put it into '36 or '37, not '25. Even adding 10 years to the GM claim of '25 still puts common use out until '35 at the earliest... again, providing that the laws of most states change.
I miss the entertainment value of the wildly optimistic predictions previously made on this very thread by at least one impassioned poster in regards to how fast AV ride-share operations would almost completely replace the current modes of transportation, first in Phoenix to be quickly followed elsewhere.

Those were the good ole days of a laff-a-minute predictions based on back of the envelope calculations about the fantastic cost savings and wide appeal of ride sharing in AV vehicles.
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Old 03-30-18, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
Back in the day when I was doing smartphone designs I would often want to choke members of the marketing team for the "trash" they put forth regarding what smart phones can and cannot do... in fact, to this day, in spite of having a late model Samsung (the wife has an iphone) we still do not "dictate" messages to our phones, nor do we ask "Siri" to find stuff for us... and I chuckle at the results when friends and relatives do this on their respective smart phones.
Oh, gawd, I have a friend like that.
Totally clueless about technology, but he finally got a smartphone a couple years ago.

So then he thinks Siri is how you use the Internet, and keeps sending me nonsensical gibberish text messages dictated verbally to Siri.
(And the messages are usually asking me to look up something on the Internet for him.)
So I keep telling him Siri is a goddamned toy, and not how real people use the Internet.
So then he would complain it was too hard to use the iPhone keypad.
So I would tell him to use a real computer.
So he would complain he didn't have one, and it was too much trouble to always go to the library to use one.

When I upgraded my Macbook last time, instead of eBaying the old one, I wiped it, did a fresh OS install, and sent it to him, (he is 1000 miles away).

So now what is his excuse for not using a computer?
Him: "I haven't charged the battery yet."
Me: "Just plug it into the goddamned wall and use it!!!"
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Old 03-30-18, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
Cadillac is clearly marketing it as here and usable

this video says pay attention and don't use hand held devices

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrlM02uCkvI

this video says "Introducing Cadillac Super Cruise™, the first true hands-free driving system for the highway. Using precision LiDAR mapping data, a state-of-the-art driver attention system, and a network of camera and radar sensors, Super Cruise™ is unlike any other driver assistance system"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rxW68ADldI

this one shows the driver crossing his arms after engagin
https://youtu.be/tvjf1VaH8mg
Yeah, ain't marketing grand? Of course keep in mind that it still requires "a state-of-the-art driver attention system."

Sizzle... all sizzle.
Of course, this is still a rudimentary semi-autonomous system, and therefore the driver remains entirely responsible for the car's actions. That's why a small camera mounted on the steering column monitors your eyes to make sure you're paying attention. If Super Cruise makes a mistake — it didn't make a single one in my tests — the onus is on you to correct it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/cadi...ng-review.html

BFD, you don't have to have your hands on the wheel, but you do have to have your eyes on the road. This is not yet real "autonomous driving."

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Old 03-30-18, 01:23 PM
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On another hand, Waymo is already doing fully driverless cars in Chandler, AZ.
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Old 03-30-18, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
On another hand, Waymo is already doing fully driverless cars in Chandler, AZ.
Have they hit anyone yet?

The fact is that these are still prototype runs and with a limited rider pool. I understand that such rides are also available in Philadelphia and San Francisco.

It's gonna be a while before you can hail one at any airport.

I think they will eventually be common... but not for many years.

This last test/development/deploy stage will no doubt take a few more years... then a few more states will change their laws allowing AVs... test/development will continue in those new states, and under varied weather conditions... this will take a few more years. The consumer roll out will take a few years.

All in all... I'd bet 10 years pass before AVs are in common use... as even ride share vehicles.

Meanwhile collision avoidance will get better for luxury cars... and maybe Tesla and Cadillac will allow drivers to actually relax... you know, in 10 years or so.
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Old 03-30-18, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
Have they hit anyone yet?

The fact is that these are still prototype runs and with a limited rider pool. I understand that such rides are also available in Philadelphia and San Francisco.
The law allowing them to operate driverless on public roads was signed on March 1 ... so i wouldn't expect them to be full-on operating in four weeks.

fact remains, Waymo---which Seems to be the gold standard in AV right now---is already running cars with no human driver at all on public roads.
Originally Posted by genec
It's gonna be a while before you can hail one at any airport.
cabs to the airport are ridiculously expensive, and cabs from the airport are notorious for ripping off out-of-town passengers. On another hand, airport pick-up/drop-off zones are ridiculousdly unsafe, with all sorts of random activity.

Originally Posted by genec
I think they will eventually be common... but not for many years.
Pretty much.

Originally Posted by genec
All in all... I'd bet 10 years pass before AVs are in common use... as even ride share vehicles.
Depends what you mean by "common." I'd expect taxis and rideshares to be "common" in major cities in half that time.

But ... whatever. I have no money in their stocks, so whatever happens, from ubiquity tomorrow to total failure to launch, is all fine with me.
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Old 03-30-18, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
On another hand, Waymo is already doing fully driverless cars in Chandler, AZ.
Any information on what routes they run? How often, how far and at what speed? Can the volunteer passengers be picked up at home and taken to anywhere in Chandler, let alone anywhere beyond the specific routes freshly mapped out by Waymo in Chandler, or is it more like a trolley car running on a few specifically laid out routes and passengers have to board/disembark at stops designated by Waymo? Any way for the passengers to alter the course?

IOW, is there any real information about the actual operation of these so-called fully driverless cars in AZ beyond a dreamy press release, staged video or two? We already know that the state of AZ hasn't shown much interest in what Waymo or any of the AV promoters are/or are not doing in the state or what the AV's are or are not capable of doing.
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Old 03-30-18, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Any information on what routes they run? How often, how far and at what speed? Can the volunteer passengers be picked up at home and taken to anywhere in Chandler, let alone anywhere beyond the specific routes freshly mapped out by Waymo in Chandler, or is it more like a trolley car running on a few specifically laid out routes and passengers have to board/disembark at stops designated by Waymo? Any way for the passengers to alter the course?

IOW, is there any real information about the actual operation of these so-called fully driverless cars in AZ beyond a dreamy press release, staged video or two? We already know that the state of AZ hasn't shown much interest in what Waymo or any of the AV promoters are/or are not doing in the state or what the AV's are or are not capable of doing.
They really are not releasing details of "How often, how far and at what speed..."

The FAQs are remarkably non committal...
https://waymo.com/apply/faq/
as is their location map...


Don't worry though... there are none in your area.
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Old 03-30-18, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
They really are not releasing details of "How often, how far and at what speed..."

The FAQs are remarkably non committal...
https://waymo.com/apply/faq/
as is their location map...

Don't worry though... there are none in your area.
Not remarkable at all that little to no details are released. Not remarkable at all that their location map doesn't indicate what they are doing in those locations other than "testing" something. Who knows what they fail to acknowledge as far as their public roads testing regimen or locations in the absence of a regulatory requirement?
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Old 03-30-18, 10:22 PM
  #2822  
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The selective outrage seems to be evidence of Uber derangement. The facts speak for themselves--e.g.,

Pedestrian deaths continue to rise, Arizona
ranks third highest in 2016


PHOENIX – Distracted driving and walking is contributing to a 20-year high in pedestrian deaths, according to data collected in the first half of 2016 by the Governors Highway Safety Association. The preliminary report estimates that the 2016 total could rise to almost 6,000 pedestrian fatalities.

From January through June 2016, there were 2,660 pedestrian fatalities. During this time, 34 states saw increases in deaths. Arizona ranked as the third-highest state for number of fatalities per population, with 1.4 pedestrians killed per 100,000 people.

Almost 200 people were killed statewide all of last year, according to Alberto Gutier, the Arizona director of highway safety. There was an 11 percent spike in deaths nationwide over 2015, which the report attributes to a parallel increase in smartphone usage from both drivers and pedestrians.

Distracted driving is exactly what Kevin Isherwood, owner of Kevin’s Hot Dog Stand in Downtown Phoenix, sees everyday from the corner of Monroe Street and Central Avenue.
“I think most of the accidents would be caused if the pedestrians weren’t paying as much attention as they were,” Isherwood said. “It’s the drivers that are too late.”

In addition to distraction, the report cites an increase in driving because of lower gas prices, and an increase in walking for exercise as contributing factors to 2016’s fatality numbers. Though Isherwood said he wasn’t surprised by Arizona’s high fatality rates, he hasn’t seen any collisions between cars and pedestrians from his stand.

“It’s still slower speeds so I don’t know if they’d be fatalities,” Isherwood said. “But there’s a lot of close calls for hitting people all the time.”

Pedestrian deaths have been steadily climbing since 2009. According to the report, many states are increasing their efforts toward funding, awareness and education to keep people safer. Arizona is one of three states that received nearly $800,000 from the federal government to spend on initiatives to keep pedestrians safer, Gutier, said.

“It’s quite a bit of money to spend on awareness and education and enforcement on pedestrians to reduce the number of fatalities,” Gutier said.

The state will spend the $793,250 over the next 5 years, Gutier said. But as efforts are aimed toward keeping drivers less distracted, there is also an issue of distracted pedestrians.

“We have to have mutual respect,” Gutier said. “Pedestrians of vehicles in traffic and vehicles respecting pedestrians in right of way in or out of crosswalks.”
https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2017/...ghest-in-2016/
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Old 03-31-18, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by McBTC
The selective outrage seems to be evidence of Uber derangement. The facts speak for themselves--e.g.,

"Distracted driving is exactly what Kevin Isherwood, owner of Kevin’s Hot Dog Stand in Downtown Phoenix, sees everyday from the corner of Monroe Street and Central Avenue. “I think most of the accidents would be caused if the pedestrians weren’t paying as much attention as they were,” Isherwood said. “It’s the drivers that are too late."

Have to remember to file under the label Deranged the bewildering "facts" from a Hot Dog vendor source allegedly speaking about this specific fatal collision.
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Old 03-31-18, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Have to remember to file under the label Deranged the bewildering "facts" from a Hot Dog vendor source allegedly speaking about this specific fatal collision.
He's easier to understand (pedestrians on cell phones and drivers in a hurry) than some of the anti-technology hypocrites who don't seem to understand 6,000 pedestrians a year are casualties of their own idiocy and sh** drivers (who obviously benefited from not having a camera in their face while driving or some of them might be serving time for negligent operation).
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Old 03-31-18, 11:06 AM
  #2825  
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To add to this, another Tesla driver had several warnings from Autopilot about impending danger, including one hands on warning yet did not take control of his Model X before a fatal crash...

Tesla reveals the driver killed in a Model X crash was traveling with Autopilot engaged, received 'several' automated warnings before the collision

We know that Tesla does not have any fully autonomous driving systems in their passenger vehicles, but why didn't the driver respond? Either they were not getting this or they were impaired, or worse.

Apparently nothing is really going to save you from human errors.
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