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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 06-21-17, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Amitoj
Hahaha. Good point. I can imagine the poor thing going into Boston on I93 South and not able to take an exit till it reaches Cape Cod
I'll give this fad another 5 years at most. It's been 16 years since the dotcom blow up, 8 since the 2008 market crash, and the dow is now 20,000, so it can't be long away. Once the market tanks these companies can write off all the investments and move along, leaving Joe sixpack dudded on his retirement funds... AGAIN!

Mobs like Audi and GM will just shelve their R&D or perhaps move ahead at a slower pace, like they did with the electric car thing.



Just because something looks like a good idea doesn't mean it will take off.

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Old 06-21-17, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by coominya
I'll give this fad another 5 years at most. It's been 16 years since the dotcom blow up, 8 since the 2008 market crash, and the dow is now 20,000, so it can't be long away. Once the market tanks these companies can write off all the investments and move along, leaving Joe sixpack dudded on his retirement funds... AGAIN!

Mobs like Audi and GM will just shelve their R&D or perhaps move ahead at a slower pace, like they did with the electric car thing.



Just because something looks like a good idea doesn't mean it will take off.

The dotcom blow up was about investing in startups with little to nothing to show for it... The internet in the meantime has grown and continues to take business from brick and mortar shops.

The 2008 crash was about banksters selling bad mortgage loan packages to other banksters that sold the same as an investment tool to the public. The housing market is pretty robust today.

While companies are investing in self driving cars, there ARE actual prototypes out there (vice the empty web ideas of dotcom). There may be some pullback in the driverless car arena, but I don't see crazy investment going on, and I do see a lot of real companies working on real tech (which is available in real cars today)... I suspect that the future will bring us robot cars, in spite of the views of some here. In fact several car makers have actually pulled in their release dates... 2020 is being touted by google and others as the year of the robot car.

Real tech has a way of moving faster than one can imagine... hence the computer boom when it first occurred, the smartphone boom, and the coming robot car boom... all following Moore's Law.

Oh and for the sake of your own sanity, don't invest in anything you cannot actually see real stuff being produced.

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Old 06-21-17, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
OTOH, there is no time in recorded history when some did not hold that opinion.
But this time it's different.

People's attention is worth money. That's always been the case, but now massive computing power is being applied to get and keep people's attention, and the attention sucking demon is small enough to carry around in your pocket.
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Old 06-21-17, 10:39 PM
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Before we say anymore about this amazing new technology, lets have a quick look back in time to another one that the techno disciples all swooned over. And this one actually had some serious backing. The year, 2003.



Hydrogen Fuel: A Clean and Secure Energy Future

Today’s Presidential Action
  • In his State of the Union address, President Bush announced a $1.2 billion hydrogen fuel initiative to reverse America’s growing dependence on foreign oil by developing the technology for commercially viable hydrogen-powered fuel cells to power cars, trucks, homes and businesses with no pollution or greenhouse gases.
  • https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archi...030130-20.html
WoW! I can't wait. Can you wait? Well we're gonna have to...


“Hydrogen: It’s the fuel of the future — and it always will be.” That’s the longstanding joke about hydrogen fuel cell cars, and it’s probably the best way to sum up the story.
https://evobsession.com/hydrogen-fue...fail-in-depth/



Why Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Are Not Competitive — From A Hydrogen Fuel Cell Expert
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/10...l-cell-expert/


So we see the same pattern, over and over. Some AMAZING technology that is going to CHANGE the world. And then it fails and is pushed under the carpet.
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Old 06-22-17, 02:28 AM
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Originally Posted by coominya
Before we say anymore about this amazing new technology, lets have a quick look back in time to another one that the techno disciples all swooned over. And this one actually had some serious backing. The year, 2003.



Hydrogen Fuel: A Clean and Secure Energy Future

Today’s Presidential Action
  • In his State of the Union address, President Bush announced a $1.2 billion hydrogen fuel initiative to reverse America’s growing dependence on foreign oil by developing the technology for commercially viable hydrogen-powered fuel cells to power cars, trucks, homes and businesses with no pollution or greenhouse gases.
  • https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archi...030130-20.html
WoW! I can't wait. Can you wait? Well we're gonna have to...


“Hydrogen: It’s the fuel of the future — and it always will be.” That’s the longstanding joke about hydrogen fuel cell cars, and it’s probably the best way to sum up the story.
https://evobsession.com/hydrogen-fue...fail-in-depth/



Why Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Are Not Competitive — From A Hydrogen Fuel Cell Expert
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/10...l-cell-expert/


So we see the same pattern, over and over. Some AMAZING technology that is going to CHANGE the world. And then it fails and is pushed under the carpet.
What... you gonna believe EVERYTHING some President tells you to believe?
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Old 06-22-17, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by coominya
So we see the same pattern, over and over. Some AMAZING technology that is going to CHANGE the world. And then it fails and is pushed under the carpet.
Way to go. Just double down on the contrarion viewpoint. Do that long enough and strenuously enough and you will get the rational thinkers to come around to the anti-intellectual POV. Not.

Ignoring for the moment, the fact, that the failure of a single hypothesis need not invalidate an entire premise... let's ignore that fact, for a moment. Fuel cells. Are they vaporware? Junk science? Science fiction? Erm... no. Fuel cells made Apollo Missions possible. They make the International Space Station possible. They are the go to power source when the U.S. Military needs to think outside the box and get off the grid energy reliably. So... why did Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology not replace gasoline and form the backbone of U.S. domestic power and light infrastructure. Hmmm. <snap!> wait, I think I've got it... is it just possible that the entrenched oil and gas industry are using their longevity and not inconsiderable wealth to thwart the introduction of competing alternative energy sources? Ya think???

We have automobiles because the military wanted them. We have aircraft because the military wanted them. We have antibiotics because the military wanted them. We have antivirals because the military wanted them. We have Internet because the military wanted it. We have GPS because the military wanted it. We will have fully autonomous road going cars and trucks because the military wants them! Are you getting it yet?! It is going to happen, with your blessing, or without it. Uncle Sam doesn't really give a fig about the fringe anti-intellectual luddite naysayers kibitzing from the sidelines.
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Old 06-22-17, 09:55 AM
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Clearly this is science fiction.

There aren't a lot of them privately leased (a total of 46 for the first gen Clarity), but they are out there.
There are going to be about 1,000 fuel cell vehicles from Honda, Toyota, Hyundai on the road in 2017.

There happens to be a hydrogen station in Billerica MA. (I've seen a Clarity in the wild around here.)

(ps. Curmudgeons said the same thing about fully electric cars in the 70s, 80s, 90s.... They'll never work.)

-mr. bill

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Old 06-22-17, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Clearly this is science fiction.

(ps. Curmudgeons said the same thing about fully electric cars in the 70s, 80s, 90s.... They'll never work.)

-mr. bill
So when are you getting one anyway? Are there lots of hydrogen filling stations near you?




“General Kenobi. Years ago, you served my father in the Fuel Cell Wars... Now he begs you to help him in his struggle against the Autonomous car deniers...”

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Old 06-22-17, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill

(ps. Curmudgeons said the same thing about fully electric cars in the 70s,...)

-mr. bill
If all you have to back up your opinion is a personal insult, it doesn't say much does it bill.
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Old 06-22-17, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by DreamRider85
But if this technology did take off in say 10 years and it was proven to be 100 x safer than human driving, would that be good news for cyclists? Could we just cycle every road without any worries? Imagine what a heaven that would be for us. Just saying.
Self driving cars will make the roads much safer for cyclists, pedestrians, and motor-vehicle users.

Google's self-driving cars identify cyclists, yield the right of way when required by law or safety, never become inattentive, and have a 360 degree field of vision.

There's a display at the Computer History Museum near the Google campus in Mountain View which demonstrates how the cars see.

I'd assume other companies' projects are similar.
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Old 06-22-17, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by coominya
Before we say anymore about this amazing new technology, lets have a quick look back in time to another one that the techno disciples all swooned over. And this one actually had some serious backing. The year, 2003.



Hydrogen Fuel: A Clean and Secure Energy Future

Today’s Presidential Action
  • In his State of the Union address, President Bush announced a $1.2 billion hydrogen fuel initiative to reverse America’s growing dependence on foreign oil by developing the technology for commercially viable hydrogen-powered fuel cells to power cars, trucks, homes and businesses with no pollution or greenhouse gases.
  • https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archi...030130-20.html
WoW! I can't wait. Can you wait? Well we're gonna have to...


“Hydrogen: It’s the fuel of the future — and it always will be.” That’s the longstanding joke about hydrogen fuel cell cars, and it’s probably the best way to sum up the story.
https://evobsession.com/hydrogen-fue...fail-in-depth/



Why Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Are Not Competitive — From A Hydrogen Fuel Cell Expert
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/10...l-cell-expert/


So we see the same pattern, over and over. Some AMAZING technology that is going to CHANGE the world. And then it fails and is pushed under the carpet.
There are failures and successes. The question is why are you so sure this one (AVs) will be a failure? Surely you have something other than "because 'they' said X would be a success and it wasn't".
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Old 06-22-17, 09:21 PM
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hmmmm. even the self driving car with human assistance is limited by the human

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ng-autopilot-i


so we humans still cause 100% of incidents... but yet we keep letting pride stir the argument..."nothing can do a better job then I"

Self preservation is a key part of our lives
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Old 06-22-17, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
I see it the other way around: existing roads will be the free-for-all with human driven cars, bikes, and pedestrians; and new roadways will be dedicated to self driving things. A single lane robot road could accommodate the same volume as 10 lanes of human driven cars (I'm guessing), so it would be good bang-for-buck to build raised the robot roads. Building raised robot roads is easier than convincing people they can't drive their own cars or walk across streets.
That will never happen, do you know what that would cost?
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Old 06-22-17, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeOK
That will never happen, do you know what that would cost?
Pipe dreams are cheap.
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Old 06-22-17, 11:41 PM
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Originally Posted by PoorBob


so we humans still cause 100% of incidents... but yet we keep letting pride stir the argument..."nothing can do a better job then I"
You can't make a religion out of it Bob. You will get blinded by an all or nothing attitude and won't be able to read the fact from the fiction in these stories. Tyre blowouts cause accidents, bridges collapsing, wildlife leaping onto roads and sinkholes and any number of other causes. Now that lowers your 100%, doesn't it?

The 100% mentality is all I see here. We will all one day have an autonomous car, 100% of us will.
They will be in widespread use in 10 years or less, I'm 100% sure.

All this is a bunch or corporate propaganda to keep a steady stream of investment capital flowing, the money probably coming from people's pension funds, pump and dump. I believe these cars are technically possible in their 99.999% safe future state, but that's not the same as saying they will be in widespread usage is it. And they have a lot of hurdles to jump first. Like getting a LIDAR that costs a lot less than $85,000
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Old 06-23-17, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted by MikeOK
That will never happen, do you know what that would cost?
Roads for self driving cars would cost less per traffic volume supported than roads for human driven cars. The savings in both money and real estate are compelling aspects of such a network.
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Old 06-23-17, 05:13 AM
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Originally Posted by coominya
You can't make a religion out of it Bob.... And they have a lot of hurdles to jump first. Like getting a LIDAR that costs a lot less than $85,000
Do people ever read "fake news" anymore?

Originally Posted by The Failing New York Times
When Google initially started its autonomous vehicle research eight years ago, the lidar sensors it used cost roughly $75,000. Those sensors were made by Velodyne Lidar, an industry leader. Velodyne declined to say what the current pricing is for such systems, but Waymo’s chief executive, John Krafcik, said in a recent presentation that his company had reduced the cost of its lidar system by 90 percent.

But even at $7,500, such systems are seen as too expensive to meet automakers’ demands.

“Car companies want it to cost $100 and perform 10 times better, be smaller — and very reliable,” said Omer Keilaf, chief executive of Innoviz Technologies, a lidar developer based in Israel. “So there’s a big vacuum in the industry right now.”
-mr. bill
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Old 06-23-17, 05:52 AM
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Rather "thoughtful" that it put on its hazard lights.

Originally Posted by Tesla Model S Owner's Manual
Do not use Autosteer... in construction zones...
-mr. bill

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Old 06-23-17, 07:57 AM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Oopsies. Rather "thoughtful" that it put on its hazard lights.



-mr. bill
Again, do note that Tesla is NOT a self driving car, dispite the stupid names they have chosen for their advanced cruise control.

Misconception 1: Driver assistance systems will evolve gradually into fully autonomous cars

This is an extremely attractive misconception that you will find repeated over and over. At first glance, it seems to be very logical and rooted in history: If we look at the past 10 years as well as the present we find that each new car model comes equipped with more computational power, more electronic safety and assistance features – from auto-parking, lane warning, intelligent cruise control, to emergency braking etc. Isn’t it natural to extrapolate this trend into the future?
Top misconceptions of autonomous cars and self-driving vehicles | Driverless car market watch

The very earliest that a true self driving car will be available is late 2019 or 2020... as predicted by several auto makers.
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Old 06-23-17, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by genec
Again, do note that Tesla is NOT a self driving car, dispite the stupid names they have chosen for their advanced cruise control.

....

The very earliest that a true self driving car will be available is late 2019 or 2020... as predicted by several auto makers.
Tesla itself notes it isn't a self driving car!

FWIW, the Tesla did exactly what it should have done. Follow the lane.
The driver did exactly what he should not have done. Left Autosteer on in a construction zone.

For diety's sake people, RTFM!


Anyhow, what do you mean "true self driving car?" Speak geek.

U of M will have a pair of SAE-4 automated vehicles operating on campus this September. Driving mode is closed-campus with vehicles, pedestrians and bicycles on route. The average speed is ~12 mph.


-mr. bill

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Old 06-23-17, 10:18 AM
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The military has had autonomous technology for decades. Cruise missiles for example, and lots of other fun stuff that is made for causing death and destruction.

Sure, it will be safer, when there are far less humans around.

Look at the leading causes of death, that didn't happen by accident.

Eugenics is alive and well, just ask Bill Gates.
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Old 06-23-17, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Tesla itself notes it isn't a self driving car!

FWIW, the Tesla did exactly what it should have done. Follow the lane.
The driver did exactly what he should not of done. Left Autosteer on in a construction zone.

For diety's sake people, RTFM!


Anyhow, what do you mean "true self driving car?" Speak geek.

U of M will have a pair of SAE-4 automated vehicles operating on campus this September. Driving mode is closed-campus with vehicles, pedestrians and bicycles on route. The average speed is ~12 mph.


-mr. bill
True self driving car... Level 4.

From the NHTSA, and SAE:
Definitions – Levels of Vehicle Automation
The definitions below cover the complete range of vehicle automation, ranging from vehicles
that do not have any of their control systems automated (level 0) through fully automated
vehicles (level 4). The agency has segmented vehicle automation into these five levels to allow
for clarity in discussing this topic with other stakeholders and to clarify the level(s) of
automation on which the agency is currently focusing its efforts.

Level 0 – No-Automation. The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary
vehicle controls (brake, steering, throttle, and motive power) at all times, and is solely
responsible for monitoring the roadway and for safe operation of all vehicle controls.
Vehicles that have certain driver support/convenience systems but do not have control
authority over steering, braking, or throttle would still be considered “level 0” vehicles.
Examples include systems that provide only warnings (e.g., forward collision warning,
lane departure warning, blind spot monitoring) as well as systems providing automated
secondary controls such as wipers, headlights, turn signals, hazard lights, etc. Although a
vehicle with V2V warning technology alone would be at this level, that technology could
significantly augment, and could be necessary to fully implement, many of the
technologies described below, and is capable of providing warnings in several scenarios
where sensors and cameras cannot (e.g., vehicles approaching each other at
intersections).

Level 1 – Function-specific Automation: Automation at this level involves one or more
specific control functions; if multiple functions are automated, they operate
independently from each other. The driver has overall control, and is solely responsible
for safe operation, but can choose to cede limited authority over a primary control (as in
adaptive cruise control), the vehicle can automatically assume limited authority over a
primary control (as in electronic stability control), or the automated system can provide
added control to aid the driver in certain normal driving or crash-imminent situations
(e.g., dynamic brake support in emergencies). The vehicle may have multiple capabilities
combining individual driver support and crash avoidance technologies, but does not
replace driver vigilance and does not assume driving responsibility from the driver. The
vehicle’s automated system may assist or augment the driver in operating one of the
primary controls – either steering or braking/throttle controls (but not both). As a result,
there is no combination of vehicle control systems working in unison that enables the
driver to be disengaged from physically operating the vehicle by having his or her hands
off the steering wheel AND feet off the pedals at the same time. Examples of functionspecific
automation systems include: cruise control, automatic braking, and lane keeping.


Level 2 - Combined Function Automation: This level involves automation of at least
two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control
of those functions. Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize shared authority when
the driver cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations. The driver is
still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe operation and is expected to be
available for control at all times and on short notice. The system can relinquish control
with no advance warning and the driver must be ready to control the vehicle safely. An
example of combined functions enabling a Level 2 system is adaptive cruise control in
combination with lane centering. The major distinction between level 1 and level 2 is
that, at level 2 in the specific operating conditions for which the system is designed, an
automated operating mode is enabled such that the driver is disengaged from physically
operating the vehicle by having his or her hands off the steering wheel AND foot off
pedal at the same time.

Level 3 - Limited Self-Driving Automation: Vehicles at this level of automation enable
the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or
environmental conditions and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to
monitor for changes in those conditions requiring transition back to driver control. The
driver is expected to be available for occasional control, but with sufficiently comfortable
transition time. The vehicle is designed to ensure safe operation during the automated
driving mode. An example would be an automated or self-driving car that can determine
when the system is no longer able to support automation, such as from an oncoming
construction area, and then signals to the driver to reengage in the driving task, providing
the driver with an appropriate amount of transition time to safely regain manual control.
The major distinction between level 2 and level 3 is that at level 3, the vehicle is designed
so that the driver is not expected to constantly monitor the roadway while driving.

Level 4 - Full Self-Driving Automation (Level 4): The vehicle is designed to perform all
safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such
a design anticipates that the driver1 will provide destination or navigation input, but is not
expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both
occupied and unoccupied vehicles. By design, safe operation rests solely on the
automated vehicle system.
That's about as "geek" as I can get.

There is one more level...
SAE Level 5

SAE level 5's requirement of full-auto driving in every place humans can drive is an ideal goal, but unlikely to even be desired, financially, for many years to come. This would have to include include off-road driving, such as tracking a lion through the bush of Africa -- where your jeep, if on private property, is knocking down small trees to make new pathways -- or understanding addresses in the temporary city at Burning Man. Someday those capabilities might be there, but for now a more reasonable goal might be handling all marked roads and most private drives.

SAE Level 4 is the only probable level, as it will describe most vehicles for many decades. A vehicle purely at SAE 3 or 5 may not exist for a long time, if ever. They SAE spec more accurately suggests that a vehicle at levels 1-4 might also be at lower levels in some situations.
This from https://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/levels.html

More, including the latest for and against of certain technologies, at: https://ideas.4brad.com/topic/robocars

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Old 06-23-17, 05:56 PM
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75% of drivers wouldn't feel safe in driverless car
Many drivers dont feel safe in driverless car

Most Consumers Say They'll Steer Clear Of Self-Driving Cars, Survey Says
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorz.../#3ecc447124c5

So you see, if mass production ever came to pass, and full market saturation was reached (decades in the future), there will still be many more human driven cars for every robot car. A lot of them gleefully playing games like swerve and stab the brakes
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Old 06-23-17, 06:15 PM
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Don't Believe The Hype About A Driverless Society Being Just A Few Years Away

In 2009, screenwriter Charlie Kaufman spoke to a reporter about the excessive expectations that some people draw from movies. He highlighted how some hope for a life that mirrors Hollywood, and are eventually let down by reality. In the car world, autonomy is pegged as the ideal future, but will it happen as soon as our tech overlords say it will?

I think that people have expectations of themselves and other people that are based on these fictions that are presented to them as the way human life and relationships could be, in some sort of weird, ideal world, but they never are,” Kaufman said in that interview with The Scotsman. “So you’re constantly being shown this garbage and you can’t get there.”
The car industry does the same to consumers. There’s Lyft’s co-founder suggesting car ownership will be an outdated concept by 2025...
deadspin-quote-carrot-aligned-w-bgr-2
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Old 06-23-17, 06:55 PM
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Believe it or not, screenwriters aren't the best source of high tech information.

Originally Posted by coominya
Don't Believe The Hype About A Driverless Society Being Just A Few Years Away

In 2009, screenwriter Charlie Kaufman spoke to a reporter about the excessive expectations that some people draw from movies. He highlighted how some hope for a life that mirrors Hollywood, and are eventually let down by reality. In the car world, autonomy is pegged as the ideal future, but will it happen as soon as our tech overlords say it will?

I think that people have expectations of themselves and other people that are based on these fictions that are presented to them as the way human life and relationships could be, in some sort of weird, ideal world, but they never are,” Kaufman said in that interview with The Scotsman. “So you’re constantly being shown this garbage and you can’t get there.”
The car industry does the same to consumers. There’s Lyft’s co-founder suggesting car ownership will be an outdated concept by 2025...
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