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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 08-08-17, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
And keeps changing.

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Old 08-09-17, 02:06 PM
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AV technology is way past the theoretical point - it's in testing all over the world, by dozens of companies all seeking to reduce error and crash rates relative to human drivers certainly by at least an order of magnitude, probably by several orders of magnitude.

All the doubt and hand-wringing about the viability of AV technology by the neo-Luddites is comical.

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Old 09-15-17, 10:38 AM
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I'm more interested in the regulatory environment and use paradigm than the tech, which I assume with be there pretty soon. From what I have seen so far, the autonomous cars thing is an attempt to privatize public roads, and vastly expand vehicle uses.

Consider the example above of the person who hopes to have use of an AC when they are too old to drive. So in Japan, there are more adult diapers sold than the ones for kids. In a country like that, will the number of cars on the road go down if ACs are available to seniors? What about if ACs are available to kids? What if Brown could have a fleet of vehicles that wasn't scaled by the cost of drivers? What if rich people each had 50 cars, all off somewhere collecting guests, and various boutique food items, for the evening's party? In many cities it is difficult to get parking, what if cars are just circling the block, waiting for their client to return from a meeting or delivery? The uses allowed are going to be critical to the way the roads are used in the future. ACs uncouple the limit on cars that available drivers present. There should be an explosion of new car uses.

So the rubber tire was born out of the bicycle, what new form or vehicle will be most prominent if autonomous cars predominate. I have no idea, but if the roads get as clogged as they are likely to, at least in cities, fire trucks and ambulances may need to be on the road circling, in order to get to where they are needed as the ability to get them from their parked locations to where they are needed manifests. Ambulances are already being deployed this way by algorithms that guess where they could most likely be useful. Once the pattern of use on roads changes, there will be waves of responses that will trigger things we can't now imagine. Consider sideroads in cites, the quiet places many of us live. With congestion on main roads, will algorithms routs vehicles down sideroads, cleverly exploiting all the potential routes to a goal. Currently speed limits are an issue for human drivers, but ACs will not care as the lower speeds can burn less fuel, and computers won't get bored driving those timeframes.

Will stop signs and lights be useful? These are hideous wasters of fuel, and time, won't computer models find more efficient ways of blending traffic flows, and how will that work out for people?

The perception of what the future requires is a very powerful force to steamroller existing values. A minor version of that is all the toll hwy projects that transponder/computer tech shoved into existence, in places with an anti- toll preference, even out of the hands of socialist governments, and the economics there were piddling.

The designers of this technology are presumably not so stupid as to actually believe that there will be less cars, and why would they want that? If regulations allow it, there will be more cars than ever. The sacrifice will be from the poor, and the environment, and the public sphere. When that realization hits, unless you look around and see a Dutch type cycling space, I think you will be lucky to see much access to roads at all. Road use may not be banned for conventional cars, but it may simply be too weird and crowded out there. Computers will be able to organize packets of vehicles, and it won't really mater if travel times increase, because being in a truly autonomous car will mean you can have sex, drink alcohol or take drugs, or watch video, whatever you want. Your own rock star world. Maybe that ocean of mobile needs will be cyclist friendly, but I doubt it.
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Old 09-16-17, 02:05 AM
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict
Testing in a control environment. I think they're great like a automoous robot driving a cart inside a warehouse...where a mistake means dropped packages and broken items. But they still have no idea how to solve basic problems that a human can solve in a millisecond, out in the real world where error means injury and death.

Computers are good when everything is well defined, like playing chess...but no where near the power of the human brain at processing so much information in a flash of time when thing is new and unexpected. A computer is no match for a human brain.
Uh, FYI, the cars are being tested in the real world, on real streets, in real cities, and have faster reaction times than humans, and "see everything" almost all at once, where humans can only see where their heads are pointed.

The technology is good enough to be used for crash avoidance in several new model cars currently on the market.

What the AV cars don't yet have, is knowedge and experience of the real world, filled with unpredictable humans... but this is being taught to them through the real world testing.

"Warehouse" Ha! Here is your warehouse... from two years ago...
https://gizmodo.com/welcome-to-mcity-...ive-1719142309

Cities where driverless cars exist now:
U.S. Cities Where You Can Find Driverless Cars or Buses Right Now | Fortune.com

It may be some time however before robot cars can deal with all the things they may experience in real life... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...y-scratch.html

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Old 09-17-17, 06:31 AM
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict
I think they're great like a automoous robot driving a cart inside a warehouse...where a mistake means dropped packages and broken items.
Warehouses are dangerous environments. A mistake means risk of injury or death.

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Old 10-17-17, 04:40 PM
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Old 10-18-17, 09:26 AM
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I love it. Over the last several months I've been regularly reading this forum, I've seen newswire upon newswire of the kinds of death and dismemberment that drivers visit upon the vulnerable cyclist population. Now there is an answer: autonomous vehicles. And you guys hate it. Don't believe it. Figures. You're not really cyclists, are you. Of course not. You ride bicycles. Occasionally. Maybe daily. But at heart you are drivers! You wanted other drivers to get stiff jail sentences if, and when, they screw up, but not really. You were worried that draconian measures to bring bad drivers to heel might catch good ones (you) out on an off day when they forget to bring their A Game to the serious business of driving in urban areas. What a dilemma. You were trapped. You wanted to drive without infringement. So bad drivers were exempted from real responsibility for their actions if their victims were (worthless) cyclists. Even so, the daily toll on cyclists and pedestrians caused vexation to those (worthless) among us not bought into the de facto support of the Fossil Fuel Industry. So you vented here. Pointlessly. For the exercise of it. Got it. Well get this. Wishing AV cars away is also pointless. They are here. They aren't ready for prime time by half, but Americans are dying faster than Americans can be forced to replace themselves via the withholding of Birth Control (and ********) from women, and the proliferation of cheap failure prone condoms among men. Who will be left to buy the oil if it gets any worse??!! No, drivers cannot be allowed to continue to mow down 40K Americans every year, there might be (future) car owners among the fallen. So, despite their unreadiness, AV's are being rushed to market. Oil will still be necessary. Even more so since once this all really gets rolling, human frailties like the need to sleep every 72 hours are negated, and AV Lyft cars (and semi-tractor trucks) will only need to stop for unloading. This is what comes of kicking the can down the road and not doing something substantive about the multiple issues of drunk driving, distracted driving, aggressive driving, road rage, etc. and etc. Deal.
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Old 10-18-17, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
I love it. Over the last several months I've been regularly reading this forum, I've seen newswire upon newswire of the kinds of death and dismemberment that drivers visit upon the vulnerable cyclist population. Now there is an answer: autonomous vehicles. And you guys hate it. Don't believe it. Figures. You're not really cyclists, are you. Of course not. You ride bicycles. Occasionally. Maybe daily. But at heart you are drivers! You wanted other drivers to get stiff jail sentences if, and when, they screw up, but not really. You were worried that draconian measures to bring bad drivers to heel might catch good ones (you) out on an off day when they forget to bring their A Game to the serious business of driving in urban areas. What a dilemma. You were trapped. You wanted to drive without infringement. So bad drivers were exempted from real responsibility for their actions if their victims were (worthless) cyclists. Even so, the daily toll on cyclists and pedestrians caused vexation to those (worthless) among us not bought into the de facto support of the Fossil Fuel Industry. So you vented here. Pointlessly. For the exercise of it. Got it. Well get this. Wishing AV cars away is also pointless. They are here. They aren't ready for prime time by half, but Americans are dying faster than Americans can be forced to replace themselves via the withholding of Birth Control (and ********) from women, and the proliferation of cheap failure prone condoms among men. Who will be left to buy the oil if it gets any worse??!! No, drivers cannot be allowed to continue to mow down 40K Americans every year, there might be (future) car owners among the fallen. So, despite their unreadiness, AV's are being rushed to market. Oil will still be necessary. Even more so since once this all really gets rolling, human frailties like the need to sleep every 72 hours are negated, and AV Lyft cars (and semi-tractor trucks) will only need to stop for unloading. This is what comes of kicking the can down the road and not doing something substantive about the multiple issues of drunk driving, distracted driving, aggressive driving, road rage, etc. and etc. Deal.
Lengthy rant... but just prey tell us what exactly can be done about "the multiple issues of drunk driving, distracted driving, aggressive driving, road rage, etc. and etc."

Laws have been enacted, and occasionally enforced. But human nature as it is, (noted above) humans continue to fail to uphold fighter pilot attentiveness to their personal driving. As such, it has been supposed that teaching cars to drive was much more fruitful than continuing to slap the wrists of errant drivers.

No one really knows how well this vast "experiment" will play out. It may result in vastly fewer deaths by auto and an increase in cycling due to confidence that motor vehicles are smarter than the average voter. Or it may be a disaster in time, monies and lives. At this point, it is all speculation, however, generally speaking, the collision avoidance features of newer automobiles are believe to reduce traffic deaths.

Most of the comments here are due to the unknown and speculation... the ultimate answers will likely not come for decades.
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Old 10-24-17, 07:34 PM
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Progress: Audi's system detects potential dooring victims and locks the doors to prevent it.
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Old 11-07-17, 11:59 AM
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Just as I predicted: Self driving car with no dummy drivers will be on the roads before the end of 2017.
Waymo self-driving cars in Arizona now truly driverless

Nobody is behind the wheel in some of Waymo's white minivans shuttling people around Chandler and other East Valley cities, the company announced Tuesday.
Arizona is the first global testing ground for the truly driverless cars on public roads, Waymo CEO John Krafcik said during a technology conference speech in Lisbon, Portugal.

I'm gonna keep an eye out for them on my commute. I saw a few this morning, but didn't check if there was a driver or not.
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Old 11-07-17, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
Just as I predicted: Self driving car with no dummy drivers will be on the roads before the end of 2017.
Waymo self-driving cars in Arizona now truly driverless


I'm gonna keep an eye out for them on my commute. I saw a few this morning, but didn't check if there was a driver or not.
Extract from NYT article on Tesla: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gafactory.html
"Over the course of several months, I often asked people at Tesla, as well as those working on autonomous technologies elsewhere, how far away the self-driving future might be. There was no solid consensus beyond somewhere between two and five years. I tended to believe that the timeline might extend much further and would depend on how tightly we regulate such vehicles and how we agree to define autonomy. Does it mean interstate driving on a sunny day? Or driving within a dedicated area on city streets? Is it a Level 5 [a safe and fully autonomous car that can operate in any place, and any conditions, without a driver] overnight trip through heavy rain from Boston to Washington? A driverless taxi pickup on a crowded street under partial construction — orange cones, backhoes, chaos — as a nightclub lets out? Part of the debate concerns hardware and whether the collection of sensors that automotive engineers now build into their A.V.s can collect enough data to create a fully autonomous car. These sensors generally include radar, cameras and Lidar, the expensive laser-based technology that Tesla has so far declined to use. Many other A.V. researchers consider it essential. Lidar uses light waves, rather than radio waves, to map and “read” a car’s environs.

Musk has promised that before the end of this year, a Tesla vehicle will drive itself coast to coast completely on autopilot. A number of competitors — especially Waymo and General Motors — seem to be closing in on similarly ambitious goals. But it’s worth noting that no Level 5 car has ever been publicly deployed, and it’s doubtful one even exists; the coast-to-coast trip on autopilot, Musk suggested, wouldn’t yet be an instance where a driver could, say, go to sleep at the wheel. What’s more, no Level 4 car, where the vehicle is self-driving under certain weather and geographical conditions, has been put in regular service, either. In fact, while driver-assistance tools like autopilot can greatly reduce crash rates, no company or researcher has ever demonstrated that a robotic automobile can consistently operate in the everyday world more safely than a car with a human driver."
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Old 11-07-17, 12:47 PM
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This is real. I share the road with these vans:
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Old 11-07-17, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
This is real. I share the road with these vans:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaOB-ErYq6Y
Can these vans operate safely in any place, and any conditions, without a driver? Or do they operate only on specially selected predetermined roads on sunny days with little or no traffic and with nothing unusual (detour, inoperative traffic light or road obstruction) occurring on the route? If the latter, these vans may be interesting test vehicles but are in fact not yet ready, or even close to being ready for prime time (i.e. Level 5) "self-driving" vehicles.
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Old 11-07-17, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Can these vans operate safely in any place, and any conditions, without a driver? Or do they operate only on specially selected predetermined roads on sunny days with little or no traffic and with nothing unusual (detour, inoperative traffic light or road obstruction) occurring on the route? If the latter, these vans may be interesting test vehicles but are in fact not yet ready, or even close to being ready for prime time (i.e. Level 5) "self-driving" vehicles.
I really have to laugh at this...

There are human motorists that cannot operate safely in any place, and in any conditions and drive only on specially selected predetermined roads on sunny days with little or no traffic with nothing unusual (detour, inoperative traffic light or road obstruction) occurring on their route.

Should we declare them "not ready for prime time" too?

I think that would take a lot of young new drivers, and aged drivers, right off the roads.
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Old 11-07-17, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Can these vans operate safely in any place, and any conditions, without a driver? Or do they operate only on specially selected predetermined roads on sunny days with little or no traffic and with nothing unusual (detour, inoperative traffic light or road obstruction) occurring on the route? If the latter, these vans may be interesting test vehicles but are in fact not yet ready, or even close to being ready for prime time (i.e. Level 5) "self-driving" vehicles.
They share the road with me every morning and afternoon during rush hour. My commute lately goes thru a three to one lane construction zone complete with inoperable light. I expect it will rain in the next few months - it almost did this morning.
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Old 11-07-17, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Can these vans operate safely in any place, and any conditions, without a driver? Or do they operate only on specially selected predetermined roads on sunny days with little or no traffic and with nothing unusual (detour, inoperative traffic light or road obstruction) occurring on the route? If the latter, these vans may be interesting test vehicles but are in fact not yet ready, or even close to being ready for prime time (i.e. Level 5) "self-driving" vehicles.
They're in Phoenix. So at best Level 4. For now. Negotiating icy roads in a Buffalo blizzard is probably still a few years away. But radar can see much better than humans can in blinding conditions, and computers are already better than most human drivers with traction control, so that's going to happen too. More than a few companies are already working on autonomous operation in adverse conditions. There is a technological race going on that is unprecedented in human history.

Anyway, the first time a contributor to this thread gets a ride in one, without a human driver, is probably less than a year away.
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Old 11-07-17, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Anyway, the first time a contributor to this thread gets a ride in one, without a human driver, is probably less than a year away.
I rode in a driver-less car on a roller coaster over 60 years ago. That didn't mean that self driving cars were around the corner, then or now. Unless you wish to redefine self driving cars to meet whatever is available, no matter what its limitations.
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Old 11-07-17, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
I really have to laugh at this...

There are human motorists that cannot operate safely in any place, and in any conditions and drive only on specially selected predetermined roads on sunny days with little or no traffic with nothing unusual (detour, inoperative traffic light or road obstruction) occurring on their route.

Should we declare them "not ready for prime time" too?

I think that would take a lot of young new drivers, and aged drivers, right off the roads.
Plenty of Level 4 human drivers. Not so many Level 5 human drivers.


4: all aspects of the dynamic driving task, even if [another] human driver does not respond appropriately to a request to intervene

5: all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions
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Old 11-07-17, 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
I rode in a driver-less car on a roller coaster over 60 years ago. That didn't mean that self driving cars were around the corner, then or now. Unless you wish to redefine self driving cars to meet whatever is available, no matter what its limitations.
Pretty sure that vehicle was all but "glued" to the tracks, and had no obstacles what so ever to avoid, and the entire route was very predetermined.

I also suspect it obeyed absolutely no traffic laws.
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Old 11-07-17, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Plenty of Level 4 human drivers. Not so many Level 5 human drivers.


4: all aspects of the dynamic driving task, even if [another] human driver does not respond appropriately to a request to intervene

5: all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions
But based on ILTB's standards, those drivers not meeting Level 5, are "not ready for prime time."

Heck, I'm not all that keen with driving at night in driving rain...
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Old 11-07-17, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
I really have to laugh at this...

There are human motorists that cannot operate safely in any place, and in any conditions and drive only on specially selected predetermined roads on sunny days with little or no traffic with nothing unusual (detour, inoperative traffic light or road obstruction) occurring on their route.

Should we declare them "not ready for prime time" too?
Keep fooling yourself that bogus tropes and trite stereotypes about wicked, evil and incompetent motorists are clever and on target and you can keep on laughing.
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Old 11-07-17, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Keep fooling yourself that bogus tropes and trite stereotypes about wicked, evil and incompetent motorists are clever and on target and you can keep on laughing.
Keep fooling yourself that buggy whips are still popular.
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Old 11-07-17, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
Just as I predicted: Self driving car with no dummy drivers will be on the roads before the end of 2017.
Waymo self-driving cars in Arizona now truly driverless




I'm gonna keep an eye out for them on my commute. I saw a few this morning, but didn't check if there was a driver or not.
Yep. 2018 will be the breakout year.
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Old 11-07-17, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
But based on ILTB's standards, those drivers not meeting Level 5, are "not ready for prime time."

Heck, I'm not all that keen with driving at night in driving rain...
Yup. And a driverless Lyft will be a godsend on such an evening...
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Old 11-07-17, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Yep. 2018 will be the breakout year.
Just a year ago most people seemed to be thinking mid 2020s at the earliest. Astonishing.
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