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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 11-08-17, 08:42 PM
  #476  
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bike recognition problem already solved

Since the thread has lately been sidelined about taxis, I should note that in many parts of (possibly most) states, ther are forty mile gaps between taxis. No mass transit. AND.... half of american drivers would give up their guns before giving up their POV cars.
Anyway the issue of a free app or tiny signal devices to bikes (or other hard to recognize things in traffic) which send or receive an identity signal for autodrive cars to read and recognize already exists. The electric and water companies use something like that to "drive by" read meters already. Keeps it simpler than trying to make a car do all the work. Just a reflector mounted signal that when read by the car says "I am a bike" or "blind pedestrian" or "loose dog with a collar".
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Old 11-08-17, 08:59 PM
  #477  
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Originally Posted by grayEZrider
Since the thread has lately been sidelined about taxis, I should note that in many parts of (possibly most) states, ther are forty mile gaps between taxis. No mass transit. AND.... half of american drivers would give up their guns before giving up their POV cars.
Anyway the issue of a free app or tiny signal devices to bikes (or other hard to recognize things in traffic) which send or receive an identity signal for autodrive cars to read and recognize already exists. The electric and water companies use something like that to "drive by" read meters already. Keeps it simpler than trying to make a car do all the work. Just a reflector mounted signal that when read by the car says "I am a bike" or "blind pedestrian" or "loose dog with a collar".
That is because pretty well ALL driverless vehicles/cars WILL, be "taxis"... Who would actually want to own a driverless car...? Well, the wealthy I guess would own one, but most of us, will just phone up a "taxi" and go from A to B and not own our own transport,,, I would Suggest. JMO...
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Old 11-08-17, 10:31 PM
  #478  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Maybe. I obviously don't think so.

All the technology already exists for driverless taxis - they're just refining the software. Most new cars can be developed in 18 months; I see no reason why this can't happen with driverless taxis. And there are companies already working on this. Some in the general public might be getting rides in such taxis this year (yeah, within 7 weeks).
Driverless cars are here and will be exploding in growth but they're not going to outnumber human driven cars in 10 years.
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Old 11-08-17, 10:41 PM
  #479  
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
That is because pretty well ALL driverless vehicles/cars WILL, be "taxis"... Who would actually want to own a driverless car...?
Plenty of people. As mentioned, taxis simply don't make business sense in sparsely populated areas.
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Old 11-09-17, 10:19 AM
  #480  
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Originally Posted by grayEZrider
Since the thread has lately been sidelined about taxis, I should note that in many parts of (possibly most) states, ther are forty mile gaps between taxis. No mass transit. AND.... half of american drivers would give up their guns before giving up their POV cars.
Anyway the issue of a free app or tiny signal devices to bikes (or other hard to recognize things in traffic) which send or receive an identity signal for autodrive cars to read and recognize already exists. The electric and water companies use something like that to "drive by" read meters already. Keeps it simpler than trying to make a car do all the work. Just a reflector mounted signal that when read by the car says "I am a bike" or "blind pedestrian" or "loose dog with a collar".
The problem with a system that depends on ped/bike identity signals is anyone who doesn't have one, or has one that fails. But this problem is totally manufactured, because the need for such signals is nil.
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Old 11-09-17, 10:30 AM
  #481  
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
That is because pretty well ALL driverless vehicles/cars WILL, be "taxis"... Who would actually want to own a driverless car...? Well, the wealthy I guess would own one, but most of us, will just phone up a "taxi" and go from A to B and not own our own transport,,, I would Suggest. JMO...
Yep. Why take on maintenance, storage, parking, and insurance costs when you can get around conveniently and reliably without all that baggage?

It's going to be a no-brainer for most people, just as it already is for people who already gave up their cars and rely on Uber/Lyft/public/bike/walk.
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Old 11-09-17, 10:34 AM
  #482  
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Plenty of people. As mentioned, taxis simply don't make business sense in sparsely populated areas.
Taxis that have to pay people to drive them don't make business sense in sparsely populated areas.

Take out the human driver, lower the ride cost and price dramatically, and suddenly they make great business sense. There is a compounding effect too. Because of the low availability, high cost and general inconvenience few uses taxes (demand is low). When the price drops and availability increases, so does demand, which increases supply and improves availability, making them make even more sense.
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Old 11-09-17, 10:37 AM
  #483  
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
Expire? What kind vehicles have you owned? There are 90+ year old vehicles still being enjoyed by their owners, how long until they "expire"?

I fail to see a majority of the general population give up their vehicles. For the most part, public transportation is a failure in getting the masses out of their cars. And, I don't see Legislation happening.
Yeah, I am sure those are "daily drivers..."
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Old 11-09-17, 10:44 AM
  #484  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Nor do they need to stay within the friendly confines of certain selected Google approved/selected routes in the Phoenix, AZ area in order to avoid challenging an inability to operate safely with no one at the wheel in the dark, rain, snow, slippery roads, dense urban traffic or any/every other scenario that doesn't match the sunny day environment selected for these demonstrations.

I suppose the only drivers the overwrought motorist-bashers/Google car fan bois/day dreamers would have are whatever Phase driver is equivalent to a vehicle that stops by the side of the road whenever the sun goes down, or approaches a tunnel, bridge or anything else not meeting the sunny weather, carefully selected Google-friendly dry clean routes of Phoenix, and doesn't budge until road conditions change to meet the severely limited safe operating parameters of the current breed of driver-less motor vehicles.
Of course driving in Phoenix is easier than in other places, but that too is being addressed. At least by Cruise. Maybe these guys are ahead of Waymo?

Anyone who has visited San Francisco knows driving here is kind of ridiculous. Our vehicles encounter challenging (and often absurd) situations up to 46 times more often than other places self-driving cars are tested. Perhaps for this reason, nobody else is regularly testing self-driving cars in SF. And while weíre generally drawn to tough problems, we test in SF only because we have to. We believe itís the fastest path toward deploying self-driving cars at scale.
...
Self-driving cars must be able to read traffic lights, even in bad lighting conditions, but sometimes the lights donít even work. Our vehicles have to reason about these kinds of situations and determine how to proceed. We encountered a six-way intersection in the Castro neighborhood of San Francisco with flashing red lights in all directions and successfully navigated through it.
...
Cyclists are tough to predict. Theyíre small, can reach speeds of 30mph or higher, sometimes break traffic laws, may or may not use bike lanes, split lanes and weave between cars, and can change direction far more quickly than vehicles. Our vehicles encounter cyclists 16x as often in SF than in suburbs, so weíve invested considerably in the behavior of our vehicles when a cyclist is nearby. In the video below, we narrowly avoided a cyclist in all black. He made a sharp left turn across traffic without having the right of way.
https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-test...y-77dbe8345927
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Old 11-09-17, 10:56 AM
  #485  
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
I fail to see a majority of the general population give up their vehicles. For the most part, public transportation is a failure in getting the masses out of their cars. And, I don't see Legislation happening.
Driverless taxis addresses all the major drawbacks of public transportation that is at the root of its failure.

First and foremost, driverless taxis are a door-to-door service. To use public transport you have to get to it from your starting point, and then get to your destination once you arrive at the nearest station or stop. Driverless taxis pick you up at your front door, and take you to the entrance of your destination, which is even better than driving yourself, having to find parking, and walking from your parking spot.

Secondly, driverless taxis are on-demand. Public transport works on a schedule. You have to accommodate your schedule to their schedule. Even with human drivers in them I can summon an Uber or Lyft for a spontaneous trip to arrive within a few minutes. But most trips are planned and can be scheduled for the car to arrive at a precise time. This will become even more efficient and reliable with driverless taxis which will cost practically nothing to just sit there and wait for a trip request (so keeping an ample supply to meet peak demand will be economically viable),

People might not give up their vehicles immediately, but the path of least resistance will be to take a driverless taxi. Most families will quickly shed their vehicles to be down to one. Then, if your spouse has the car you go driverless taxi. Suddenly they'll realize they both went driverless taxi every day for the last two weeks and the car has just been sitting there, unused. You won't have to be a wizard accountant to figure out continuing to own the car makes no sense.
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Old 11-09-17, 10:57 AM
  #486  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Taxis that have to pay people to drive them don't make business sense in sparsely populated areas.

Take out the human driver, lower the ride cost and price dramatically, and suddenly they make great business sense. There is a compounding effect too. Because of the low availability, high cost and general inconvenience few uses taxes (demand is low). When the price drops and availability increases, so does demand, which increases supply and improves availability, making them make even more sense.
The problem with taxis in sparsely populated areas is that the taxis will be spread out causing long wait times. People aren't going to give up car ownership if they might have to wait an hour for a taxi. This can be addressed by throwing taxis at the problem, but that doesn't make business sense.

Last edited by tyrion; 11-09-17 at 11:04 AM.
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Old 11-09-17, 11:08 AM
  #487  
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Pretty interesting... and yeah, it shows that testing is not just happening in the wide open spaces of the suburbs of Phoenix.


How their self-driving cars see the world. The predicted future path and multiple possible interactions of every person, car, and cyclist are calculated 10 times per second.

I have to wonder just how that compares to the typical human driver. "Glance and go..."


Humans controlling traffic near construction. All driving completed autonomously. Do note that the car responded to the signal from the human directing traffic.

Hmmmm can't get the images to show for some reason... but really worth the effort to look at that page and see what they are doing.
https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-test...y-77dbe8345927

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Old 11-09-17, 11:11 AM
  #488  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Of course driving in Phoenix is easier than in other places, but that too is being addressed. At least by Cruise. Maybe these guys are ahead of Waymo?
Everything is allegedly being "addressed". Addressing problems and issues with press releases, public relations activities, speculation and imaginative theorizing are not necessarily issues and problems getting any closer to being solved despite the most ardent wishful thinking.

More grist for the speculation fan-boies at the latest NYT Times Magazine special issue The Tech & Design Issue: Life After Driving https://www.nytimes.com/section/magazine
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Old 11-09-17, 11:25 AM
  #489  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Everything is allegedly being "addressed". Addressing problems and issues with press releases, public relations activities, speculation and imaginative theorizing are not necessarily issues and problems getting any closer to being solved despite the most ardent wishful thinking.

More grist for the speculation fan-boies at the latest NYT Times Magazine special issue The Tech & Design Issue: Life After Driving https://www.nytimes.com/section/magazine
Hey, not everyone lives in the back woods eating dried venison in a one room cabin heated by hand split logs...

How are those buggy whip sales going? There IS still a market... Buggy Whip Sales, Vintage Replicas, Sizing For Miniature Horses, Jedediahís Buggy Whip Repair, Wolbach, NE

I notice you are on that high tech thingy called the "internets..." Amazing for a someone so tech adverse as yourself. Do you have your assistant print out each page for you to view, while you write out your latest reply in longhand?

BTW, supposedly we've launched satellites into space and sent robots to visit other planets... just in case you aren't up on the latest news.
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Old 11-09-17, 11:37 AM
  #490  
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Originally Posted by genec
Hey, not everyone lives in the back woods eating dried venison in a one room cabin heated by hand split logs...

How are those buggy whip sales going? There IS still a market... Buggy Whip Sales, Vintage Replicas, Sizing For Miniature Horses, Jedediahís Buggy Whip Repair, Wolbach, NE

I notice you are on that high tech thingy called the "internets..." Amazing for a someone so tech adverse as yourself. Do you have your assistant print out each page for you to view, while you write out your latest reply in longhand?

BTW, supposedly we've launched satellites into space and sent robots to visit other planets... just in case you aren't up on the latest news.
Bogus analogies to unrelated technologies, references to "testing", and foolish snark may be convincing arguments for fan-boies of the hot new fantasy. I overestimated you.
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Old 11-09-17, 11:57 AM
  #491  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Bogus analogies to unrelated technologies, references to "testing", and foolish snark may be convincing arguments for fan-boies of the hot new fantasy. I overestimated you.
Nah, I just got really tired of all your negativity... as if nothing real is happening...

Here, I'll throw you a bone to gnaw on... I'm sure you'll just love this one.

Self Driving Bus Crashes in Vegas
This collision, like 90 percent of traffic incidents on our roads, was the result of human error. The truck driver got a ticket from the Las Vegas police. We could see his mirrors the whole time and he should have seen us. But I donít want to be too harsh on the guy Ė driving a big truck in Las Vegas is a tough job, and heís only human. His error could have happened to anyone.

On the other side, the shuttle did exactly what it was programmed to do, and thatís a critical point. The self-driving program didnít account for the vehicle in front unexpectedly backing up. We had about 20 feet of empty street behind us (I looked) and most human drivers would have thrown the car into reverse and used some of that space to get away from the truck. Or at least leaned on the horn and made our presence harder to miss. The shuttle didnít have those responses in its program.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/s...vegas-account/
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Old 11-09-17, 12:45 PM
  #492  
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Originally Posted by tyrion
The problem with taxis in sparsely populated areas is that the taxis will be spread out causing long wait times. People aren't going to give up car ownership if they might have to wait an hour for a taxi. This can be addressed by throwing taxis at the problem, but that doesn't make business sense.
Yes, it does make sense to throw taxis at the problem. It's the same business sense as rental companies having surplus rental cars. The cost to keep them idle some significant percentage of the time is warranted by the increased business you get due to being able to meet demand quickly and efficiently.

Besides, most trips are planned and taxi pickups can be scheduled. No waiting.
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Old 11-09-17, 12:52 PM
  #493  
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Originally Posted by genec
Nah, I just got really tired of all your negativity... as if nothing real is happening...

Here, I'll throw you a bone to gnaw on... I'm sure you'll just love this one.

Self Driving Bus Crashes in Vegas

This collision, like 90 percent of traffic incidents on our roads, was the result of human error. The truck driver got a ticket from the Las Vegas police. We could see his mirrors the whole time and he should have seen us. But I donít want to be too harsh on the guy Ė driving a big truck in Las Vegas is a tough job, and heís only human. His error could have happened to anyone.

On the other side, the shuttle did exactly what it was programmed to do, and thatís a critical point. The self-driving program didnít account for the vehicle in front unexpectedly backing up. We had about 20 feet of empty street behind us (I looked) and most human drivers would have thrown the car into reverse and used some of that space to get away from the truck. Or at least leaned on the horn and made our presence harder to miss. The shuttle didnít have those responses in its program.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/s...vegas-account/
The shuttle didnít have those responses in its program...yet...

Any bets on how soon it, and all AVs, will have those responses in their programs? A matter of weeks or a few months?
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Old 11-09-17, 01:08 PM
  #494  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The shuttle didnít have those responses in its program...yet...

Any bets on how soon it, and all AVs, will have those responses in their programs? A matter of weeks or a few months?
That would be years away... You seem to be dreaming, wake up and smell the coffee... Humans are the only drivers capable to respond to changing situations...
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Old 11-09-17, 01:12 PM
  #495  
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Originally Posted by genec
Nah, I just got really tired of all your negativity... as if nothing real is happening...
Sure there are lots of things "happening" - lots of tests, lots of money being spent, lots of dreams about making even more, WAGy speculation and especially PR/imagination driven prediction puffery as seen on this thread. Every PR news release or poster's wishful thought about the imminent replacement of inferior motorists with gee-whiz doo-dads from Silicon Valley is greeted as the proof of the dawn of the New Age of personal transportation.

It is unfortunate that you are only able to describe as "negativity" the well deserved/well earned skepticism of the dreamy cheerleading on this bicycle forum about the imminent adaption and success of the driverless car as predicted on this thread and elsewhere.
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Old 11-09-17, 01:13 PM
  #496  
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Originally Posted by genec
Yeah, I am sure those are "daily drivers..."
So, we have gone from "older vehicles" to "daily drivers"?

The point is, comments have been made that human operated vehicles will get Legislated out of existence (not ever going to happen), to vehicles expiring, gas stations going away, among other things to remove them from the road. With proper care a vehicle can last indefinitely.
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Old 11-09-17, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Driverless taxis addresses all the major drawbacks of public transportation that is at the root of its failure.

First and foremost, driverless taxis are a door-to-door service. To use public transport you have to get to it from your starting point, and then get to your destination once you arrive at the nearest station or stop. Driverless taxis pick you up at your front door, and take you to the entrance of your destination, which is even better than driving yourself, having to find parking, and walking from your parking spot.

Secondly, driverless taxis are on-demand. Public transport works on a schedule. You have to accommodate your schedule to their schedule. Even with human drivers in them I can summon an Uber or Lyft for a spontaneous trip to arrive within a few minutes. But most trips are planned and can be scheduled for the car to arrive at a precise time. This will become even more efficient and reliable with driverless taxis which will cost practically nothing to just sit there and wait for a trip request (so keeping an ample supply to meet peak demand will be economically viable),

People might not give up their vehicles immediately, but the path of least resistance will be to take a driverless taxi. Most families will quickly shed their vehicles to be down to one. Then, if your spouse has the car you go driverless taxi. Suddenly they'll realize they both went driverless taxi every day for the last two weeks and the car has just been sitting there, unused. You won't have to be a wizard accountant to figure out continuing to own the car makes no sense.

Instead of going on and on with the fantasy, answer my question about the required "Lyft System" infrastructure. .
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Old 11-09-17, 01:40 PM
  #498  
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
So, we have gone from "older vehicles" to "daily drivers"?

The point is, comments have been made that human operated vehicles will get Legislated out of existence (not ever going to happen), to vehicles expiring, gas stations going away, among other things to remove them from the road. With proper care a vehicle can last indefinitely.
Sure, because that is what we are talking about with self driving cars... not museum pieces hauled out for the annual "old car show."

We are talking cars that are used to get people to and from work and for all their other regular transportation needs... not 90 year old "classics" like a 1927 Hupmobile.

Oh no doubt those old classics will remain around, somewhere... showing up at some show from time to time... just like the much younger only 51 year old '66 Mustang.
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Old 11-09-17, 01:49 PM
  #499  
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news...our/ar-BBEK5m9

The driver was cited and had no idea the bus had no driver. So the answer is gee, that didn't work. And AAA's logo was all over that shuttle.

Las Vegas doesn't sound all that busy, you'd think it's just a gambling town, but it's a big city like every other and lots of people live there and work...it has a lot of traffic.
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Old 11-09-17, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Yes, it does make sense to throw taxis at the problem. It's the same business sense as rental companies having surplus rental cars. The cost to keep them idle some significant percentage of the time is warranted by the increased business you get due to being able to meet demand quickly and efficiently.
Rental cars cost the end user much more per mile than owner driven cars because they're paying for the idle time of the fleet. People are willing to pay this premium only in certain situations, hence people still own cars.
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