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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 11-09-17, 01:57 PM
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And driving somebody else's car means you have more liabilities and such to deal with. They don't call it Hertz for nothing.
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Old 11-09-17, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
Instead of going on and on with the fantasy, answer my question about the required "Lyft System" infrastructure. .
I'd like to hear about how Lyft and/or Uber are planning to obtain all the driver less vehicles that they will need to acquire, maintain and service on their own dime rather than have their employees finance their fleet operations; and then offer the promised bargain fares to all. Will they be using dreamy money-less currency to pay for their fleet?
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Old 11-09-17, 02:11 PM
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Didn't that early Uber car roll on it's side in a crash too?
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Old 11-09-17, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The shuttle didn’t have those responses in its program...yet...

Any bets on how soon it, and all AVs, will have those responses in their programs? A matter of weeks or a few months?
Hell, maybe days or even hours! The naysayers just aren't thinking this through. I don't know why. I'd get it if this was the usual 'vaporware' crowdfund site dreck but the damn things are here. They are racking up test miles in anger all over the country. My brother is an over the road semi-driver. He is crapping bricks. The truck he drives already has sensors in the bumper that activate the brakes if a soccer mom in a minivan pulls onto the Interstate at 35mph without waiting for a gap. The first accident he ever had as a rookie driver was exactly that. The minivan learned how to fly that day. Now the truck could jacknife instead and the soccer mom will think... "did I do that??".

A fully loaded AV semi in Budweiser livery made a 120 mile driverless run from their headquarters to a distributorship, both in Colorado a year ago. People, AV are here now, and will be putting both commercial and non-commercial drivers out of business within the decade. The breakthrough in AI that everyone thought was needed didn't happen, so Waymo et al took matters into their own hands and did it with brute force computer power and sensors. Resistance is futile. Why is (nearly) everyone so glum? Punish passes a thing of the past. I'm good with that!
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Old 11-09-17, 02:12 PM
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Why can't cars just get along?
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Old 11-09-17, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
I'd like to hear about how Lyft and/or Uber are planning to obtain all the driver less vehicles that they will need to acquire, maintain and service on their own dime rather than have their employees finance their fleet operations; and then offer the promised bargain fares to all. Will they be using dreamy money-less currency to pay for their fleet?
Just because Uber and Lyft don't want to pay drivers doesn't mean they don't have (or can't get their hands on) Billions to spend on an AV fleet of sufficient size to take care of their service areas. The venture capital will be flowing like ice cold Budweiser at kick-off once the call goes out. This is a real ground floor opportunity ILTB don't say I didn't give you the tip.
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Old 11-09-17, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
Why can't cars just get along?
Cuz there's people in them...
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Old 11-09-17, 02:20 PM
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But I keep reminding you all that these things will still stop if a bunch of thug highwaymen surround it and take the baubles/cash/whatever from the passengers, if you are into post-apocalyptic stuff. Kinda like A Clockwork Oldsmobile.
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Old 11-09-17, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
But I keep reminding you all that these things will still stop if a bunch of thug highwaymen surround it and take the baubles/cash/whatever from the passengers, if you are into post-apocalyptic stuff. Kinda like A Clockwork Oldsmobile.
Maybe, but in my experience thug robbers tend to avoid environments that are known to be bristling with high resolution cameras.
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Old 11-09-17, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
But I keep reminding you all that these things will still stop if a bunch of thug highwaymen surround it and take the baubles/cash/whatever from the passengers, if you are into post-apocalyptic stuff. Kinda like A Clockwork Oldsmobile.
I imagine a panic button in the car that sets the lights flashing and an alarm and a automated call to the police. Not a perfect solution hopefully a deterrent.
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Old 11-09-17, 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Sure there are lots of things "happening" - lots of tests, lots of money being spent, lots of dreams about making even more, WAGy speculation and especially PR/imagination driven prediction puffery as seen on this thread. Every PR news release or poster's wishful thought about the imminent replacement of inferior motorists with gee-whiz doo-dads from Silicon Valley is greeted as the proof of the dawn of the New Age of personal transportation.

It is unfortunate that you are only able to describe as "negativity" the well deserved/well earned skepticism of the dreamy cheerleading on this bicycle forum about the imminent adaption and success of the driverless car as predicted on this thread and elsewhere.
I don't understand why you dismiss, among the "lots of things 'happening'", the significance of the MILLIONS OF MILES of being driven by these vehicles.

The millions of driven miles are not imminent - they've already been driven, with hardly any issues, and nothing significant.

No human driver can make that claim. Not one.
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Old 11-09-17, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
Instead of going on and on with the fantasy, answer my question about the required "Lyft System" infrastructure. .
It will grow incrementally. There are plenty of viable models. Here's one: a franchise model where each franchisee takes out a loan to buy N Lyft vehicles and rents/leases the location to store them, charge them and maintain them. Night storage during the low usage period could be spots in parking garages that are empty all night anyway, so the rate is very cheap (if not free). During the day starting at 5am they're out and about, except to come back to one of several arranged charging stations to charge or (more likely) to have the nearly depleted batteries replaced with charged ones.

A franchise model like this would distribute the financial and logistical issues into portions much easier to manage.

But the corporation could manage its own substations as well. Most likely it will be a hybrid model, some corporate and some franchised, like many rental car companies operate.

It's like to start in big cities of course. Once a model is shown to be financially viable, loans at other locations will be easier to obtain.
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Old 11-09-17, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
I'd like to hear about how Lyft and/or Uber are planning to obtain all the driver less vehicles that they will need to acquire, maintain and service on their own dime rather than have their employees finance their fleet operations; and then offer the promised bargain fares to all. Will they be using dreamy money-less currency to pay for their fleet?
As I just noted in my previous comment, something like a franchise model is likely.

But once the model is proven to be financially viable, money via loans will be easily obtained by the corporation or by franchisees. Doesn't matter.

Remember, it's not really the Uber/Lyft employee that's paying for that loan - it's the customers. The loan payment is just one of the cuts taken out of each fare. The same will be true for financing self-driving taxis.
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Old 11-09-17, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Rental cars cost the end user much more per mile than owner driven cars because they're paying for the idle time of the fleet. People are willing to pay this premium only in certain situations, hence people still own cars.
When my buddies and I go on a road trip (biking, hiking, skiiing) we usually rent rather than drive one of our own cars because (drum roll) we've figured out it's cheaper.

A typical 200 bucks for a thousand miles round-trip works out to 20 cents per mile, plus gas.

With electric cars that are being rented all day long the accounting changes. The idle time is very inexpensive because the cars will last for 100s of thousands of miles.
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Old 11-09-17, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Nor do they need to stay within the friendly confines of certain selected Google approved/selected routes in the Phoenix, AZ area in order to avoid challenging an inability to operate safely with no one at the wheel in the dark, rain, snow, slippery roads, dense urban traffic or any/every other scenario that doesn't match the sunny day environment selected for these demonstrations.

I suppose the only drivers the overwrought motorist-bashers/Google car fan bois/day dreamers would have are whatever Phase driver is equivalent to a vehicle that stops by the side of the road whenever the sun goes down, or approaches a tunnel, bridge or anything else not meeting the sunny weather, carefully selected Google-friendly dry clean routes of Phoenix, and doesn't budge until road conditions change to meet the severely limited safe operating parameters of the current breed of driver-less motor vehicles.
You're wrong about this too, it turns out.

At Waymo, our ultimate goal is for our fully self-driving cars to operate safely and smoothly in all kinds of environments. That‘s why we’ve been running cold weather testing since 2012.
Now, just in time for the first snowfall of the season, Waymo self-driving cars will hit Michigan roads for the winter. Building on the snowy work we’ve done to date, we’ll be giving our vehicles even more practice driving in snow, sleet and ice. This type of testing will give us the opportunity to assess the way our sensors perform in wet, cold conditions. And it will also build on the advanced driving skills we’ve developed over the last eight years by teaching our cars how to handle things like skidding on icy, unplowed roads.
medium.com/waymo/michigan-is-waymos-winter-wonderland-9b3cffbb9bab
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Old 11-09-17, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The idle time is very inexpensive because the cars will last for 100s of thousands of miles.
I don't see how the longevity (in miles) has a bearing on the cost of idle time.
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Old 11-09-17, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
I don't see how the longevity (in miles) has a bearing on the cost of idle time.
Cost per hour of idle time is a fraction of the car's lifetime cost which is inversely proportional to the life of the car.
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Old 11-09-17, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
But I keep reminding you all that these things will still stop if a bunch of thug highwaymen surround it and take the baubles/cash/whatever from the passengers, if you are into post-apocalyptic stuff. Kinda like A Clockwork Oldsmobile.
If they aren't throwing goatheads across lightly traveled SR's and taking the baubles from the passengers and drivers of Subaru Outback's why oh why do you think they will do that to AV's? <snap> oh, you think that a human driver in such a situation will yell Geronimo! and roll over 6' of armed highwayrobber on flattened all season radials earning the kudos (and favors) of his (definitely) grateful passenger(s)... ... no, if it ever comes to pass that AV's are being looted in motion on the highways and byways, society will have completely failed, IOW there will be other very large problems to worry about.
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Old 11-09-17, 04:44 PM
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What if someone just wants to go for a drive and has no destination?
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Old 11-09-17, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
I don't see how the longevity (in miles) has a bearing on the cost of idle time.
Previous short answer:
Cost per hour of idle time is a fraction of the car's lifetime cost which is inversely proportional to the life of the car.

Detailed answer with illustrative example:

Say the car costs $36k.

Assume it earns 25 cents per mile.

If it lasts 200,000 miles it will earn $50k (total revenue) - 36k (cost of car) = $14k
At 200 miles per day it will last 1000 days. It earns $14k/1000 = $14/day.
At 100 miles per day it will last 2000 days. It earns $14k/2000 = $7/day.


If it lasts 400,000 miles it will earn $100k-36k = $64k
At 200 miles per day it will last 2000 days. It earns $64k/2000 = $32/day.
At 100 miles per day it will last 4000 days. It earns $64k/4000 = $16/day.

In other words, the 400k mile car earns more at a high idle rate (driven only 100 miles per day) than the
200k mile car earns at low idle rate (driven 200 miles per day).

Obviously I glossed over a lot of details. This is meant to be an apples to apples comparison example to illustrate why idle time is less of an issue for a car that lasts longer. Hopefully it has illustrated the point.

Last edited by Ninety5rpm; 11-09-17 at 06:13 PM.
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Old 11-09-17, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
What if someone just wants to go for a drive and has no destination?
I've thought of that. The proverbial Sunday drive.

Still doable. Imagine going for a drive with no destination, in a limo with a chauffeur...

Maybe there should be a "just drive" option...
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Old 11-09-17, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
I
Maybe there should be a "just drive" option...
"I'm sorry Dave, I can't let you do that... that option is not permitted by my programming..."
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Old 11-09-17, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
"I'm sorry Dave, I can't let you do that... that option is not permitted by my programming..."
Oh please, you simply give the AV a destination that takes longer than one day to meet, under current driving conditions... then, when you are through with your "Sunday drive," you cancel and return home...

After all, what is a Sunday drive but a destination never reached.
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Old 11-09-17, 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
After all, what is a Sunday drive but a destination never reached.
+1

Dude, that's poetic.
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Old 11-09-17, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
Oh please, you simply give the AV a destination that takes longer than one day to meet, under current driving conditions... then, when you are through with your "Sunday drive," you cancel and return home...

After all, what is a Sunday drive but a destination never reached.
I am opening the airlock doors now, Dave. It has not been all that nice knowing you. Goodbye...
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