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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 11-09-17, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Not really. Neither having dreamy "goals", whether it is a techno corporation or a BF poster, both with starry eyed visions of the future, nor conducting unspecified "tests" is any indication of actually achieving the bottom line goal. Just because you say so ids not good enough; none of these projects are anywhere close to fielding a safe autonomous driver-less motor vehicle capable of transporting passengers on the existing streets and highways of the U.S. and further that can be produced at a price that actually makes it a realistic alternative to what already exists
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Old 11-09-17, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
"I'm sorry Dave, I can't let you do that... that option is not permitted by my programming..."
Modern computers don't do that.

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Old 11-09-17, 06:58 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Not really. Neither having dreamy "goals", whether it is a techno corporation or a BF poster, both with starry eyed visions of the future, nor conducting unspecified "tests" is any indication of actually achieving the bottom line goal. Just because you say so ids not good enough; none of these projects are anywhere close to fielding a safe autonomous driver-less motor vehicle capable of transporting passengers on the existing streets and highways of the U.S. and further that can be produced at a price that actually makes it a realistic alternative to what already exists
You seem to be setting up a false dichotomy - that success of AVs is defined as "[the AV capability of] transporting passengers on [all of] the existing streets and highways of the U.S.", with the implication that anything less is failure.

But here's how it's going to go. It will be rolled out incrementally, one region at a time. Perhaps it will start in Phoenix, and then move on Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Or maybe Lyft/Waymo will launch in A and driverless Uber in B. These initial roll-outs will be critical as they will have to succeed, including operating at rates that can generate profit, If they fail for any reason it will be back to the drawing board, but if they succeed it's likely they will roll-out successfully everywhere else too.

The other thing is they won't necessarily have to go everywhere. Why should they have to go into underground parking garages (which may present technical communication challenges), for example? Taxis generally don't.
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Old 11-09-17, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The other thing is they won't necessarily have to go everywhere. Why should they have to go into underground parking garages (which may present technical communication challenges), for example? Taxis generally don't.
Takes "Driver carries no cash" to a whole new level...
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Old 11-09-17, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
Takes "Driver carries no cash" to a whole new level...
Right?

All communication about destination will be through an app on a traceable device. The opportunity for anonymous vandalism, much less robbery, will be nil.
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Old 11-10-17, 03:27 AM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
The problem with taxis in sparsely populated areas is that the taxis will be spread out causing long wait times. People aren't going to give up car ownership if they might have to wait an hour for a taxi. This can be addressed by throwing taxis at the problem, but that doesn't make business sense.
Tyrion is right, most of this discourse is only about cargo or passenger commuting. That is clearly cost effective and will happen very soon. But beyond that-
Example: today I drove a pickup with tools 2 miles on an unmapped road and a hundred yards through a wooded field to rewire a boat motor. After that I drove to a central county trash drop-off point and unloaded the weeks trash. You do it yourself and no one at the drop point to unload. I think the sheer number of variables is going to insure a lot of us are driving our own vehicles for quite a while yet.
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Old 11-10-17, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
The problem with taxis in sparsely populated areas is that the taxis will be spread out causing long wait times. People aren't going to give up car ownership if they might have to wait an hour for a taxi. This can be addressed by throwing taxis at the problem, but that doesn't make business sense.
Nor does it solve the problem of multiple stops; in a personal car, I can go to as many stores as I want until the car is full. In anything shared, I'm going to be stuck either paying for it to wait, or lugging my groceries through the office supply store, or my new suit and some extra underwear into Taco Bell for some lunch, etc.
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Old 11-10-17, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Imagine going for a drive with no destination, in a limo with a chauffeur...
About as much fun as watching golf. Only without the excitement.

Might as well push for self-pedaling, self-steering bicycles and then ban the manual ones because riders run stop signs and red lights.
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Old 11-10-17, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Nor does it solve the problem of multiple stops; in a personal car, I can go to as many stores as I want until the car is full. In anything shared, I'm going to be stuck either paying for it to wait, or lugging my groceries through the office supply store, or my new suit and some extra underwear into Taco Bell for some lunch, etc.
Uh, some of us run errands on bicycles.

We have to either:
  • leave our stuff on the bicycle and wonder if the stuff will be there when we get back
  • schlep our groceries through the office supply store

(But I don't get why ANYBODY would stop at Taco Bell for anything.)

And some of us run errands on foot.

So we have to:
  • schlep our groceries through the office supply store

(I still don't get why ANYBODY would stop at Taco Bell for anything.)

So why would anybody want to ride a bike or walk?

-mr. bill
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Old 11-10-17, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by grayEZrider
Tyrion is right, most of this discourse is only about cargo or passenger commuting. That is clearly cost effective and will happen very soon. But beyond that-
Example: today I drove a pickup with tools 2 miles on an unmapped road and a hundred yards through a wooded field to rewire a boat motor. After that I drove to a central county trash drop-off point and unloaded the weeks trash. You do it yourself and no one at the drop point to unload. I think the sheer number of variables is going to insure a lot of us are driving our own vehicles for quite a while yet.
Pereto applies. If driverless cars can manage the 20% of roads used for 80% of travel, they can manage 80% of the driving. The rest is gravy.
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Old 11-10-17, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Nor does it solve the problem of multiple stops; in a personal car, I can go to as many stores as I want until the car is full. In anything shared, I'm going to be stuck either paying for it to wait, or lugging my groceries through the office supply store, or my new suit and some extra underwear into Taco Bell for some lunch, etc.

The need for the car to wait for you, with your stuff in it, is pretty obvious, and the ability for it to do so surely will be available at a very reasonable price. Since there is no need to pay for the time of a human driver, the idle time of these cars is going to be very low. You should be able to keep one for the whole day for no more than you can rent a regular car today. But for most trips the time required is on the order of a few hours - and the price will be prorated accordingly. $1/hour plus mileage, perhaps?

There will likely be a distance + time rate for such trips, with the time rate fluctuating based on current demand. I mean, if you want to hold a car during peak commute time it will probably and reasonably cost you more than doing so mid-morning. Such systems will facilitate resources to be used efficiently - all good.
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Old 11-10-17, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Nor does it solve the problem of multiple stops; in a personal car, I can go to as many stores as I want until the car is full. In anything shared, I'm going to be stuck either paying for it to wait, or lugging my groceries through the office supply store, or my new suit and some extra underwear into Taco Bell for some lunch, etc.
Lugging my groceries through the office supply store (with AC) is probably better than leaving them sitting in the car while the ice cream melts and the meat spoils. And with my private car I'm already paying for it depreciating and deteriorating during the 23.5 hours/day that it sits unused (on average).
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Old 11-10-17, 12:02 PM
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Plus I suspect that as self driving vehicles break-thru people won't go shopping as much. Groceries will be delivered.
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Old 11-10-17, 04:00 PM
  #539  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The need for the car to wait for you, with your stuff in it, is pretty obvious, and the ability for it to do so surely will be available at a very reasonable price. Since there is no need to pay for the time of a human driver, the idle time of these cars is going to be very low. You should be able to keep one for the whole day for no more than you can rent a regular car today. But for most trips the time required is on the order of a few hours - and the price will be prorated accordingly. $1/hour plus mileage, perhaps?

There will likely be a distance + time rate for such trips, with the time rate fluctuating based on current demand. I mean, if you want to hold a car during peak commute time it will probably and reasonably cost you more than doing so mid-morning. Such systems will facilitate resources to be used efficiently - all good.
A heck of a lot of BOLD speculation based on what? A little birdie whispered in your ear about what surely, likely, probably, perhaps will be?
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Old 11-10-17, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Uh, some of us run errands on bicycles.

We have to either:
  • leave our stuff on the bicycle and wonder if the stuff will be there when we get back
  • schlep our groceries through the office supply store

(But I don't get why ANYBODY would stop at Taco Bell for anything.)

And some of us run errands on foot.

So we have to:
  • schlep our groceries through the office supply store

(I still don't get why ANYBODY would stop at Taco Bell for anything.)

So why would anybody want to ride a bike or walk?

-mr. bill
Relatively few people regularly use bicycles for shopping or running errands in in the U.S. Probably far fewer than those who stop at Taco Bell for anything. Probably far more people who turn up their noses at the thought of ever riding a bicycle for running errands than turn up their noses at stopping at Taco Bell.
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Old 11-10-17, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
A heck of a lot of BOLD speculation based on what? A little birdie whispered in your ear about what surely, likely, probably, perhaps will be?
I apologize. I misplaced my crystal ball so I can't know for certain exactly what the future will bring.

However, like self-driving cars, I'm capable of using inference to predict with high levels of confidence about certain aspects of the future.

You should it try it sometime.

Or wait a couple of years and you'll see. This post isn't going anywhere. Save the link.

Last edited by Ninety5rpm; 11-10-17 at 04:13 PM.
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Old 11-10-17, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
  • leave our stuff on the bicycle and wonder if the stuff will be there when we get back
I frequently leave things in my panniers or trailer while I'm inside a store. Fairly often, even my laptop and/or tablet. Leaving those things just laying on the sidewalk, I'd have zero confidence they'd be there when I got back.

Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The need for the car to wait for you, with your stuff in it, is pretty obvious, and the ability for it to do so surely will be available at a very reasonable price. Since there is no need to pay for the time of a human driver, the idle time of these cars is going to be very low. You should be able to keep one for the whole day for no more than you can rent a regular car today. But for most trips the time required is on the order of a few hours - and the price will be prorated accordingly. $1/hour plus mileage, perhaps?
How long would it take a $50k car (not even counting the cost of the self-driving equipment, much less the level of insurance you'd need to put people's lives in the hands of a computer) to get paid off at $24/day plus mileage? If you can't get that under a couple years, there's no chance this plan could ever be economically feasible.

Originally Posted by prathmann
And with my private car I'm already paying for it depreciating and deteriorating during the 23.5 hours/day that it sits unused (on average).
Your demands for added luxury are your own problem. My last two cars depreciated a total of $1200 over the four years and somewhere around 300,000 miles I had them. (One could even argue substantially less, since I did get $100 for the one I didn't feel like dealing with donating to charity, though I didn't even bother to keep the receipt on the other to write it off.) $25/mo; that won't even pay for a basic bus pass.
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Old 11-10-17, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
How long would it take a $50k car (not even counting the cost of the self-driving equipment, much less the level of insurance you'd need to put people's lives in the hands of a computer) to get paid off at $24/day plus mileage? If you can't get that under a couple years, there's no chance this plan could ever be economically feasible.
If it's in service for 300 miles a day at 25 cents a mile that's $54k after 2 years.

That's about $6/hour assuming it's in service 12 hours per day. So maybe the idle time should be closer to $5/hour... At city speeds that's about 20 miles per hour (average) at 25 cents a mile; or $5/hour.

Of course, the value of a ride is far more than 25 cents per mile by most people's standards, so these are very conservative numbers.
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Old 11-10-17, 07:46 PM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Your demands for added luxury are your own problem. My last two cars depreciated a total of $1200 over the four years and somewhere around 300,000 miles I had them. (One could even argue substantially less, since I did get $100 for the one I didn't feel like dealing with donating to charity, though I didn't even bother to keep the receipt on the other to write it off.) $25/mo; that won't even pay for a basic bus pass.
Well you were the one objecting to the cost associated with the autonomous car sometimes sitting idle while waiting for someone to do their shopping. If the cost of idle time for a vehicle is negligible then so is the cost to the company running the fleet of such cars and the 'idle-time charge' per hour will presumably be very small. Personally I agree that this cost could well be extremely small - which is exactly why I continue to have my private vehicle even though it's only in use a couple hours per week.
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Old 11-11-17, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Relatively few people regularly use bicycles for shopping or running errands in in the U.S. Probably far fewer than those who stop at Taco Bell for anything. Probably far more people who turn up their noses at the thought of ever riding a bicycle for running errands than turn up their noses at stopping at Taco Bell.
ˇTú quieres Taco Bell!

So which are you?
  • Social Explorer
  • Edgy Craver
  • Status Feeders
  • Morning Hustler
  • Dudes

(You may ask why some customers are plural while some customer is singular? I don’t know, ask Yum!.)

Oddly, Yum! just can’t get Taco Bell to take off in Mexico, two time losers. It’s sort of begs the question, why do they succeed in Texas?

For a completely different reason, KFC is limping along in Seoul too, a couple of dozen struggling locations. Fried Chicken & Beer, aka Chimaek, may have something to do with that. Or not.

But thanks for not disappointing.

I know it’s hard for you to believe that there are grocery stores with dozens of bike parking spots where it’s hard to find a parking spot for your bike.

You are unbelievable.

-mr. bill

Last edited by mr_bill; 11-11-17 at 01:39 PM.
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Old 11-11-17, 01:31 PM
  #546  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
If it's in service for 300 miles a day at 25 cents a mile that's $54k after 2 years.
Now subtract the cost of 50-70 oil changes, 7,000 gallons of fuel, 14 new sets of tires, etc. 219,000 miles doesn't happen without added costs.
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Old 11-11-17, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by prathmann
If the cost of idle time for a vehicle is negligible then so is the cost to the company running the fleet of such cars and the 'idle-time charge' per hour will presumably be very small.
It's negligible to me because I have no issue with owning and driving a very used vehicle that cost less than the first year depreciation on most people's cars. I've never heard of any transportation company willing to buy 10-20 year old cars with 100k+ miles on them that look like they sideswiped the ugly tree at high speed.
I also have near-zero opportunity cost (Realistically zero for all practical purposes, but figure a few cents for the two times out of thousands of times I've left my cars, when I came back to find them broken into. Replacement windows cost me more than the random crap they stole, too.) to having it sit and wait for me. Big difference between that and a vendor who could be using it to haul someone else around for profit.
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Old 11-11-17, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
ˇTú quieres Taco Bell!

So which are you?
  • Social Explorer
  • Edgy Craver
  • Status Feeders
  • Morning Hustler
  • Dudes

(You may ask why some customers are plural while some customer is singular? I don’t know, ask Yum!.)

Oddly, Yum! just can’t get Taco Bell to take off in Mexico, two time losers. It’s sort of begs the question, why do they succeed in Texas?

For a completely different reason, KFC is limping along in Seoul too, a couple of dozen struggling locations. Fried Chicken & Beer, aka Chimaek, may have something to do with that. Or not.

But thanks for not disappointing.

I know it’s hard for you to believe that there are grocery stores with dozens of bike parking spots where it’s hard to find a parking spot for your bike.

You are unbelievable.

-mr. bill
I might be insulted if your cryptic attempt at snark and snobbery, with its bizarre OT references, made any sense or was somehow related to the thread topic; but it doesn't. I presume you will probably just troll the Internet for some more flaky OT BS to post to this list in a quest to prove whatever you think you are proving.
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Old 11-11-17, 05:28 PM
  #549  
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
I also have near-zero opportunity cost (Realistically zero for all practical purposes, but figure a few cents for the two times out of thousands of times I've left my cars, when I came back to find them broken into. Replacement windows cost me more than the random crap they stole, too.) to having it sit and wait for me. Big difference between that and a vendor who could be using it to haul someone else around for profit.
The opportunity cost is only there during brief peak times when there's the potential of them running out of available cars. So I'd expect them to have a pricing structure that charges some significant amount for idle time during those peak hours, but only a very nominal amount at other times when there are plenty of available vehicles. People who want to do multi-stop shopping would presumably choose to do so during one of the off-peak periods - saving them some money and also reducing the amount of rush hour traffic.
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Old 11-11-17, 08:18 PM
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Drunk late-night customers are a key part of Taco Bell's business model

Which has a lot more to do with the topic than ONE GUY out of 2,000,000,000 who bought a suit, underwear and lunch.

-mr. bill
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