Go Back  Bike Forums > Bike Forums > Advocacy & Safety
Reload this Page >

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Notices
Advocacy & Safety Cyclists should expect and demand safe accommodation on every public road, just as do all other users. Discuss your bicycle advocacy and safety concerns here.

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 11-11-17, 09:49 PM
  #551  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by prathmann
The opportunity cost is only there during brief peak times when there's the potential of them running out of available cars. So I'd expect them to have a pricing structure that charges some significant amount for idle time during those peak hours, but only a very nominal amount at other times when there are plenty of available vehicles. People who want to do multi-stop shopping would presumably choose to do so during one of the off-peak periods - saving them some money and also reducing the amount of rush hour traffic.
How many years will it take the typical company to build up that kind of fleet? For the first several months to several years, they'll be running out of cars on a daily basis, and the only "off peak" times will be 2-5AM.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 02:08 AM
  #552  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,020
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2514 Post(s)
Liked 752 Times in 531 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
How long would it take a $50k car (not even counting the cost of the self-driving equipment, much less the level of insurance you'd need to put people's lives in the hands of a computer) to get paid off at $24/day plus mileage? If you can't get that under a couple years, there's no chance this plan could ever be economically feasible.
I don't know how it works these days, but back in the days when you could get insurance discounts for taking "10 hour classes" I took one. The instructor was an affable old guy who was full of off topic anecdotes and information. One of the things he shared from oh so long ago was the fact that he always insured all his cars in his wife's name. She didn't drive, but she was female. Insurance companies in those days (still?) gave a considerable discount to female drivers. This flabbergasted most of the class because we all knew (even the women) that only about 100 (a generous estimate) women in the entire country could drive as well as the average man.

Insurance companies on the other hand knew that the average woman is actually quite capable behind the wheel, and, more to the point, will take far fewer risks and be far less aggressive than the average man. They were sure enough of their statistics to put their money where their mouth was in the form of meaningful discounts to female policyholders. We all know that computers can't drive either, but the real question will be whether insurance companies agree. Based on their wacky track record with betting on the fair sex I'm not all that certain that they won't be just as contrarion when it comes to setting rates for AV's. In fact, this is what it all hangs on. If the computers are only half as good as humans at keeping cars, humans, bikes and peds safe in and around traffic. Half. They will still be worth heavily discounting, and that will soon have the effect of making the rest of us persona non grata. Think being a male driver under 25 is bad? Try being human when the AV's get to be 2x as competent.
Leisesturm is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 10:48 AM
  #553  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,009

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,562 Times in 1,060 Posts
Originally Posted by Leisesturm
In fact, this is what it all hangs on. If the computers are only half as good as humans at keeping cars, humans, bikes and peds safe in and around traffic. Half. They will still be worth heavily discounting, and that will soon have the effect of making the rest of us persona non grata. Think being a male driver under 25 is bad? Try being human when the AV's get to be 2x as competent.
WHAT IF (since this thread is chiefly about accepting a ton of speculation and wishful thinking dreams about the future of the subject as a sure thing given) the promise of a superior safety record for computer driven cars' fails to materialize and turns out to be a dud and is nothing more than another case of Silicon Valley PR/vaporware with an inability to deliver on its promises when the rubber meets the road outside of the tightly controlled test mode?

What then?

Last edited by I-Like-To-Bike; 11-12-17 at 10:52 AM.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 11:28 AM
  #554  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,076

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
WHAT IF (since this thread is chiefly about accepting a ton of speculation and wishful thinking dreams about the future of the subject as a sure thing given) the promise of a superior safety record for computer driven cars' fails to materialize and turns out to be a dud and is nothing more than another case of Silicon Valley PR/vaporware with an inability to deliver on its promises when the rubber meets the road outside of the tightly controlled test mode?

What then?
And what if it turns out that humans are better at keeping bank records than computers are?
tyrion is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 12:16 PM
  #555  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,009

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,562 Times in 1,060 Posts
Originally Posted by noisebeam
They share the road with me every morning and afternoon during rush hour.
There is a reason besides the weather, thank your governor and his we don't need no stinkin' regulations here to protect the public from private business concerns road testing beta prototypes on public roads attitude.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/11/t...iving-hub.html
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 01:09 PM
  #556  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
And what if it turns out that humans are better at keeping bank records than computers are?
When the spreadsheet crashes, you just restart it and pull up the last autosave. When the driving computer hangs going 70mph in freeway traffic, good luck with that.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 01:15 PM
  #557  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,076

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
There is a reason besides the weather, thank your governor and his we don't need no stinkin' regulations here to protect the public from private business concerns road testing beta prototypes on public roads attitude.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/11/t...iving-hub.html
That was a very smart move by Arizona.

The payoff for Arizona has been a tech boom, with dozens of autonomous vehicle companies flocking here to set up operations. Every day, Waymo, the driverless car business owned by Google’s corporate parent Alphabet, as well as Uber, Lyft, General Motors and Intel now deploy hundreds of cars that drive themselves on the streets of Phoenix, a sprawling metropolis of 1.4 million people.
tyrion is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 01:19 PM
  #558  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13659 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
When the spreadsheet crashes, you just restart it and pull up the last autosave. When the driving computer hangs going 70mph in freeway traffic, good luck with that.
What if there are 3 computers constantly cross checking one another for errors, to prevent just that situation?

Compared to the overall price of a car, computing power is darn cheap.
genec is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 01:20 PM
  #559  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,076

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
When the spreadsheet crashes, you just restart it and pull up the last autosave. When the driving computer hangs going 70mph in freeway traffic, good luck with that.
Computers have been controlling critical life or death (military, medical) systems more effectively than humans for decades.
tyrion is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 01:23 PM
  #560  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13659 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
BTW if any of you happen to take the New York Times Sunday edition (you know, newspaper... with writing on actual paper... how quaint...)

The Times Magazine is devoted this week to Technology and Design, specifically to... you guessed it, Autonomous Vehicles.

https://www.nytimes.com/section/magazine

genec is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 01:35 PM
  #561  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,009

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,562 Times in 1,060 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
BTW if any of you happen to take the New York Times Sunday edition (you know, newspaper... with writing on actual paper... how quaint...)

The Times Magazine is devoted this week to Technology and Design, specifically to... you guessed it, Autonomous Vehicles.

https://www.nytimes.com/section/magazine
You are late to the party.
The articles have been available for several days already on the Internet without access to quaint newspapers, as previously posted on this very thread.Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 02:45 PM
  #562  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 4,530
Mentioned: 34 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2112 Post(s)
Liked 663 Times in 443 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
When the spreadsheet crashes, you just restart it and pull up the last autosave. When the driving computer hangs going 70mph in freeway traffic, good luck with that.
Originally Posted by tyrion
Computers have been controlling critical life or death (military, medical) systems more effectively than humans for decades.
Likely your car’s engine is controlled by a computer (ECU). Well, unless KD5NRH’s cars are pre circa-1980. Circa this millenium cars have multiple controllers, taking on tasks such as power steering, anti-lock brakes, stability control, predictive emergency braking, lane monitoring, etc etc etc etc, even entertainment.

With one notable idiotic exception, the safety critical systems are isolated from non-safety critical systems.

That Geenie has left the bottle. We’ve had good luck with that.

-mr. bill

Last edited by mr_bill; 11-12-17 at 02:55 PM.
mr_bill is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 02:48 PM
  #563  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 4,530
Mentioned: 34 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2112 Post(s)
Liked 663 Times in 443 Posts
I’m trying to figure out how ONE person can simultaneously complain that the testing is “tightly controlled” AND complain that it is not.

-mr. bill
mr_bill is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 02:54 PM
  #564  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
What if there are 3 computers constantly cross checking one another for errors, to prevent just that situation?
All running the same software, with the same inputs. Quite likely that whatever hangs one hangs all three.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 02:59 PM
  #565  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by mr_bill
Likely your car’s engine is controlled by a computer (ECU). Well, unless KD5NRH’s cars are pre circa-1980. Circa this millenium cars have multiple controllers, taking on tasks such as power steering, anti-lock brakes, stability control, predictive emergency braking, lane monitoring, etc etc etc etc, even entertainment.
If the ECU crashes, I coast to a stop on the side of the road, same as breaking a timing belt or running out of gas. Likely won't have much brake assist anyway without the vacuum from the intake, but that's really not an issue for anyone with enough leg strength to stand up. If the ABS fails, I use the brakes the way God intended.

Big difference between any of those happening while the driver is actively engaged in controlling the car, and the car suddenly going uncontrolled (or worse) on the freeway. Especially if it's either completely unoccupied or only occupied by someone who's not even remotely ready to take control.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 03:05 PM
  #566  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 9,201
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1186 Post(s)
Liked 289 Times in 177 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
If the ECU crashes, I coast to a stop on the side of the road, same as breaking a timing belt or running out of gas. Likely won't have much brake assist anyway without the vacuum from the intake, but that's really not an issue for anyone with enough leg strength to stand up. If the ABS fails, I use the brakes the way God intended.
Those occurrences are extremely rare. Human error resulting in death is far more likely.
gregf83 is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 03:10 PM
  #567  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,076

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
All running the same software, with the same inputs. Quite likely that whatever hangs one hangs all three.
Lol, that's not the way redundant systems work.
tyrion is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 05:54 PM
  #568  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,009

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,562 Times in 1,060 Posts
Originally Posted by mr_bill
I’m trying to figure out how ONE person can simultaneously complain that the testing is “tightly controlled” AND complain that it is not.

-mr. bill
Tightly controlled by the tech firms, to include controlling/limiting testing environments to those likely to produce the most favorable results; testing with little to no oversight by safety personnel outside of their control. The results of testing (and problems encountered) are only provided to the public, if at all, are through tightly controlled press releases to fawning toadies in the press.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 07:49 PM
  #569  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Canada, PG BC
Posts: 3,849

Bikes: 27 speed ORYX with over 39,000Kms on it and another 14,000KMs with a BionX E-Assist on it

Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1024 Post(s)
Liked 57 Times in 49 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Tightly controlled by the tech firms, to include controlling/limiting testing environments to those likely to produce the most favorable results; testing with little to no oversight by safety personnel outside of their control. The results of testing (and problems encountered) are only provided to the public, if at all, are through tightly controlled press releases to fawning toadies in the press.
Ha, Ha, You SIR, are the perfect example of the person throughout the centuries... saying ... oh, no, rubbing two sticks will NOT result in a fire... And yes they do (actually they can) , ...
350htrr is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 08:10 PM
  #570  
What happened?
 
Rollfast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Around here somewhere
Posts: 7,927

Bikes: 3 Rollfasts, 3 Schwinns, a Shelby and a Higgins Flightliner in a pear tree!

Mentioned: 57 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1835 Post(s)
Liked 292 Times in 255 Posts
Welcome to the new Helmet Thread. I have six bikes.
__________________
I don't know nothing, and I memorized it in school and got this here paper I'm proud of to show it.
Rollfast is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 08:19 PM
  #571  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
Lol, that's not the way redundant systems work.
It is in the real world; the redundancy handles if a hardware component fails, not if the software receives an input it can't deal with properly.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 08:22 PM
  #572  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by gregf83
Those occurrences are extremely rare. Human error resulting in death is far more likely.
I've been through at least two ECU failures, (and a third situation that may have been, but the company scrapped the vehicle without diagnosing it further) one ABS controller failure and zero deaths by any cause. Your definition of rare is ridiculous.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 08:23 PM
  #573  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SE Wisconsin
Posts: 775

Bikes: Trek 970, Bianchi Volpe,Casati

Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 359 Post(s)
Liked 122 Times in 87 Posts
What about pollution,

Amazing all this money and tech going into cars. Wouldn't it be better if we followed Holland's lead and developed public transit instead of over taxing roads and infrastructure? Sometimes I think it us hopeless. It is just about which huge corporation is going to shove things down our throat.,,..whatever their profit based agenda may be??
rossiny is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 08:37 PM
  #574  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 9,201
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1186 Post(s)
Liked 289 Times in 177 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
I've been through at least two ECU failures, (and a third situation that may have been, but the company scrapped the vehicle without diagnosing it further) one ABS controller failure and zero deaths by any cause. Your definition of rare is ridiculous.
36,000 deaths last year.
gregf83 is offline  
Old 11-12-17, 08:39 PM
  #575  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SE Wisconsin
Posts: 775

Bikes: Trek 970, Bianchi Volpe,Casati

Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 359 Post(s)
Liked 122 Times in 87 Posts
On a side note ,,,good name WAYMO... as in crash !! Bang !!! WAYMO,,,,KABKLAMO!!!!!
rossiny is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.