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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 11-12-17, 08:46 PM
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Originally Posted by rossiny
Wouldn't it be better if we followed Holland's lead and developed public transit instead of over taxing roads and infrastructure?
A country somewhat smaller than West Virginia has different transportation needs than one over 230 times its size. Compare population density; Netherlands over 1,000/sq mi, US 91/sq mi. Netherlands 7 urban areas over 400k people, US at least 40.
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Old 11-12-17, 08:47 PM
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It took a little while but I think I get it. This AV thing is an incredibly bad idea. Humans really are the best at doing the very important task of keeping us all safe from tons of motor vehicle hurtling along at freeway speeds. How do we get Waymo et al to cease and desist? They have m-o-n-e-y. What have we got? Our fear? Our foreboding? Our Spider Sense? What? What do we have that is going to counter the incredible weight of m-o-n-e-y that the corporate lobbyists are shoving at jurisdictions to get them to suspend their usual caution and put us all at risk of death and dismemberment by allowing the testing of these... murdermobiles?! What?
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Old 11-12-17, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by gregf83
36,000 deaths last year.
How many ECU failures total?
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Old 11-12-17, 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
It is in the real world; the redundancy handles if a hardware component fails, not if the software receives an input it can't deal with properly.
No, it's not. I worked in military systems in the 80s, and IIRC something like a fighter jet would have multiple processors with the same instruction set made by different companies running code compiled by compilers from different companies. This scenario:

All running the same software, with the same inputs. Quite likely that whatever hangs one hangs all three.
doesn't happen in a properly designed redundant system.
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Old 11-12-17, 09:04 PM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
A country somewhat smaller than West Virginia has different transportation needs than one over 230 times its size. Compare population density; Netherlands over 1,000/sq mi, US 91/sq mi. Netherlands 7 urban areas over 400k people, US at least 40.
I see your point. The point I was trying to make is humans keep spending an amazing amcount of money on cars. The cost of infrastructure for cars as well as pollution is astounding. A transit system that is developed can travel faster , no matter 10 miles or 200 miles. The amount if money car companies have to push their agenda is scary. Maybe one day when the engines burn up all the oxygen the trees produce only then will us so called intelligent animals of earth wake up....
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Old 11-13-17, 04:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
It took a little while but I think I get it. This AV thing is an incredibly bad idea. Humans really are the best at doing the very important task of keeping us all safe from tons of motor vehicle hurtling along at freeway speeds. How do we get Waymo et al to cease and desist? They have m-o-n-e-y. What have we got? Our fear? Our foreboding? Our Spider Sense? What? What do we have that is going to counter the incredible weight of m-o-n-e-y that the corporate lobbyists are shoving at jurisdictions to get them to suspend their usual caution and put us all at risk of death and dismemberment by allowing the testing of these... murdermobiles?! What?
Why are you opposed to the very technology that will finally get most Americans out of personal vehicles and into vehicles shared with others?
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Old 11-13-17, 04:23 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
WHAT IF (since this thread is chiefly about accepting a ton of speculation and wishful thinking dreams about the future of the subject as a sure thing given) the promise of a superior safety record for computer driven cars' fails to materialize and turns out to be a dud and is nothing more than another case of Silicon Valley PR/vaporware with an inability to deliver on its promises when the rubber meets the road outside of the tightly controlled test mode?

What then?
That possibility is a ship that sailed once Google/Waymo logged three million flawless AV miles, a record no human driver can match, let alone the average human driver.

And it's not like they can make mistakes without anyone noticing. They stand out like sore thumbs and any time there is a hint of culpability in some incident it makes the news. We all know about the (safe) indecisiveness of the AV at the intersection with the track-standing bicyclist, for example.
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Old 11-13-17, 07:13 AM
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Originally Posted by rossiny
Amazing all this money and tech going into cars. Wouldn't it be better if we followed Holland's lead and developed public transit instead of over taxing roads and infrastructure? Sometimes I think it us hopeless. It is just about which huge corporation is going to shove things down our throat.,,..whatever their profit based agenda may be??
My thinking has evolved in the opposite direction. Initially I was a firm proponent of California's high-speed rail proposal. But as the projected costs kept rising and autonomous vehicle technology improved I now feel it will be a waste of money and resources. Sure the rail system may still be faster, but the long SF-LA drive wouldn't be so bad in an AV where the time could be spent reading/watching a movie/taking a nap/etc. And the total trip time would probably work out about the same considering the scheduling and local travel at each end. I also expect that eventually the fleet of AVs headed down I-5 would assemble into tightly packed groups to achieve aerodynamic efficiencies similar to a train (or peloton).

Last edited by prathmann; 11-13-17 at 09:29 AM.
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Old 11-13-17, 07:48 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Tightly controlled by the tech firms, to include controlling/limiting testing environments to those likely to produce the most favorable results; testing with little to no oversight by safety personnel outside of their control. The results of testing (and problems encountered) are only provided to the public, if at all, are through tightly controlled press releases to fawning toadies in the press.
Yeah, this crash (not accident) took place on a "tightly controlled" environment and the only way the fawning toadies in the press found out about the crash (not accident) was through a "tightly controlled" press release.

Oh wait. That "tightly controlled" environment is aka "the real world" where "real people" have "real cameras."

twitter.com/fresconews/status/845475784563281922



-mr. bill

Last edited by mr_bill; 11-13-17 at 08:32 AM.
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Old 11-13-17, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Now subtract the cost of 50-70 oil changes, 7,000 gallons of fuel, 14 new sets of tires, etc. 219,000 miles doesn't happen without added costs.
Oil changes? Gallons of fuel? 14 sets?

How about battery replacement? In any case we're talking about relatively small per mile costs already managed by taxis, Ubers and Lyfts. Relatively small compared to cost of human driver labor...
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Old 11-13-17, 08:43 AM
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FYI...The feature story in yesterday's New York Times Magazine is about autonomous cars.
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Old 11-13-17, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by prathmann
My thinking has evolved in the opposite direction. Initially I was a firm proponent of California's high-speed rail proposal. But as the projected costs kept rising and autonomous vehicle technology improved I now feel it will be a waste of money and resources. Sure the rail system may still be faster, but the long SF-LA drive wouldn't be so bad in an AV where the time could be spent reading/watching a movie/taking a nap/etc. And the total trip time would probably work out about the same considering the scheduling and local travel at each end. I also expect that eventually the fleet of AVs headed down I-5 would assemble into tightly packed groups to achieve aerodynamic efficiencies similar to a train.
One reason I like to drive a 500 mile trip I do often instead of fly is to have my car on the other end. I presume the drive vs train choice would be the same.

But with cheap AV hailing service at the other end that dissipates.

Now add the distinct possibility of fast shared AV vans and even buses and this choice to not drive oneself becomes even cheaper and greener.
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Old 11-13-17, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by prathmann
I also expect that eventually the fleet of AVs... would assemble into tightly packed groups to achieve aerodynamic efficiencies similar to a train.
I wonder if there are any other examples of multiple individual vehicles assembling into tightly packed groups to achieve aerodynamic efficiencies?

Drawing a blank.

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Old 11-13-17, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
How many years will it take the typical company to build up that kind of fleet? For the first several months to several years, they'll be running out of cars on a daily basis, and the only "off peak" times will be 2-5AM.
One possibility is that they will franchise like rental car companies do today. Each franchise will finance, operate and maintain a stable of, say, Waymo cars under the Lyft label. Lyft just provides the hailing computer services (integrated with the Waymo AVs of course) and gets a cut.

That's why the Lyft/Waymo agreement scares Uber. And rightly so. But Uber is working with Volvo and others. We'll see.
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Old 11-13-17, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
When the spreadsheet crashes, you just restart it and pull up the last autosave. When the driving computer hangs going 70mph in freeway traffic, good luck with that.
Comparing the reliability of conventional desktop software to that of embedded redundant systems is silly.
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Old 11-13-17, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Why are you opposed to the very technology that will finally get most Americans out of personal vehicles and into vehicles shared with others?
shh, work with me here... I'm on your side <wink>
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Old 11-13-17, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
shh, work with me here... I'm on your side <wink>
Doh. That's what I get for skimming.
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Old 11-13-17, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
All running the same software, with the same inputs. Quite likely that whatever hangs one hangs all three.
Already responded to, by others.

And running the same software on the same processors is not the way redundant systems work... in fact, quite often there is one or more processor(s), called a "watchdog" that looks for errors and provides corrections or calls for appropriate backup and error correcting.

Heck, even cell phones do this.
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Old 11-13-17, 02:05 PM
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The display of pathetic Luddism in this thread is a fascinating demonstration of human nature.

I can't wait to review some of these posts in a couple of years.
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Old 11-13-17, 07:51 PM
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Level 2 sucks
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Old 11-13-17, 08:18 PM
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The human operator is again the weak point.
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Old 11-13-17, 09:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The display of pathetic Luddism in this thread is a fascinating demonstration of human nature.

I can't wait to review some of these posts in a couple of years.
Posts tapped out on smartphones decrying the potential of technological advances. It's always ironically amusing.
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Old 11-13-17, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
Posts tapped out on smartphones decrying the potential of technological advances. It's always ironically amusing.
Does "smartphone tapping" also mean that affordable personal flying cars in every garage really are ready for imminent release, production and adaption by the public?
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Old 11-13-17, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Does "smartphone tapping" also mean that affordable personal flying cars in every garage really are ready for imminent release, production and adaption by the public?
I haven't heard of this proposal. Is it on kickstarter?
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Old 11-14-17, 06:50 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Does "smartphone tapping" also mean that affordable personal flying cars in every garage really are ready for imminent release, production and adaption by the public?

Here's the thing though.

Some of us have walked and ridden among self-driving cars - cars that you say don't exist outside of "tightly controled" test environments.

Some of us have walked and ridden among conventional Ubers and Lyfts too. (Some of us have even taken an Uber or Lyft. I know? Amazing, huh?)

Originally Posted by ATC
Another positive report comes from bicyclists. Scott Bricker, executive director of Bike Pittsburgh, says members of his group feel a lot more comfortable around autonomous vehicles than human drivers.

"They can guarantee that the [autonomous vehicle] is not inebriated, that it is not programmed to drive aggressively," he says. The autonomous vehicles in Pittsburgh are programmed to maintain a four-foot distance from bikes.
Yet you are *terrified* of the self-driving cars, because, why?

(ps. Flying car - sucks as a car, sucks as a plane. Who knows why they've never "taken off?")

-mr. bill

Last edited by mr_bill; 11-14-17 at 06:59 AM.
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