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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 11-30-17, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
It was brought up, more than once. By whom and where in thread, I don't know. I am not searching it out.



I strongly disagree with your assertion of how quickly "most will abandon driving themselves". I believe you are way overestimating the general population taking to AV's. I see some going that route, especially in large Cities but the majority, within the next 10-15 years, no. I could see Uber drivers being replaced, taxi drivers the same.

How many times will someone tolerate an AV arriving to pick you up reaking of smoke, interior filthy dirty, pet hair covering everything, or the vehicle damaged. Who will be expected to pay and how would it be determined, by cameras in the vehicle. Will people tolerate being "watched".

It will take years for the infrastructure to be built and the AV fleets to follow. Mainly, I see there being a strong resistance by people to go along with riding along.

I see the AV's getting a foot hold but not much more. In the remainder of my life.
I would say Yes, Yes to all your questions... Yes people will tolerate being recorded by cameras, Yes, someone smoking will be told to stop, Yes, someone causing damage, or their pets causing damage will be charged for it on their credit card they used to pay for the ride... and yes, people WILL just love the convenience of door to door transport instead of using a bus and not paying for their own personal vehicle... IMO
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Old 11-30-17, 06:58 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
It was brought up, more than once. By whom and where in thread, I don't know. I am not searching it out.



I strongly disagree with your assertion of how quickly "most will abandon driving themselves". I believe you are way overestimating the general population taking to AV's. I see some going that route, especially in large Cities but the majority, within the next 10-15 years, no. I could see Uber drivers being replaced, taxi drivers the same.

How many times will someone tolerate an AV arriving to pick you up reaking of smoke, interior filthy dirty, pet hair covering everything, or the vehicle damaged. Who will be expected to pay and how would it be determined, by cameras in the vehicle. Will people tolerate being "watched".

It will take years for the infrastructure to be built and the AV fleets to follow. Mainly, I see there being a strong resistance by people to go along with riding along.

I see the AV's getting a foot hold but not much more. In the remainder of my life.
People will get away with smoking in an AV hailed car exactly once. It won't happen. In addition to cameras there are likely to be smoke detectors. There are departments of people working on addressing these problems in multiple companies right now.
Yes, people will tolerate cameras, just like security cameras watching you on the sidewalk or inside a bus or bank. That means the guy who was in there before you was being watched too. WorthIt.

It will take years to build the infra? What infra? AVs use existing infra.

I don't think you get it. You'll see. People like driving, but getting chauffeured around is pretty cool too.

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Old 11-30-17, 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Driverless cars like Flying Cars that were so heavily publicized, sound so exciting to a gullible public
These things are not remotely analogous.
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Old 11-30-17, 07:33 PM
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[QUOTE=Ninety5rpm;20024742]People will get away with smoking in an AV hailed car exactly once. It won't happen. In addition to cameras there are likely to be smoke detectors. There are departments of people working on addressing these problems in multiple companies right now.
Yes, people will tolerate cameras, just like security cameras watching you on the sidewalk or inside a bus or bank. That means the guy who was in there before you was being watched too. WorthIt.

It will take years to build the infra? What infra? AVs use existing infra.

I don't think you get it. You'll see. People like driving, but getting chauffeured around is pretty cool too.
[QUOTE]

A security camera that catches a glimpse of you when you pass by is far different than being watched and listened to when you are captive for that hour commute.

Lets take a city the size of Omaha. In the dream of HOV's virtually disappearing overnight, how many AV's will be needed for commuters? Add in, stay at home parents taking kids to school, Dr. appointments, running errands, self employed, people on vacation? 10k, 25k, 50k, or more daily? There has to be enough to supply peak demand, plus extra for those out of commission for various reasons, mechanical issues, recharging, general service, etc.
There isn't any support system in place to serve that potential market.
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Old 11-30-17, 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
GM to launch autonomous cars in big cities sometime in 2019 | CTV News | Autos

Man o man, these GM executives must be on some good drugs to not care about the fail/impossibility of autonomous vehicles, they are going to go bankrupt for sure...
Yep. Naive amateurs duped by all the hype.
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Old 11-30-17, 07:47 PM
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[QUOTE=02Giant;20024816][QUOTE=Ninety5rpm;20024742]People will get away with smoking in an AV hailed car exactly once. It won't happen. In addition to cameras there are likely to be smoke detectors. There are departments of people working on addressing these problems in multiple companies right now.
Yes, people will tolerate cameras, just like security cameras watching you on the sidewalk or inside a bus or bank. That means the guy who was in there before you was being watched too. WorthIt.

It will take years to build the infra? What infra? AVs use existing infra.

I don't think you get it. You'll see. People like driving, but getting chauffeured around is pretty cool too.

A security camera that catches a glimpse of you when you pass by is far different than being watched and listened to when you are captive for that hour commute.

Lets take a city the size of Omaha. In the dream of HOV's virtually disappearing overnight, how many AV's will be needed for commuters? Add in, stay at home parents taking kids to school, Dr. appointments, running errands, self employed, people on vacation? 10k, 25k, 50k, or more daily? There has to be enough to supply peak demand, plus extra for those out of commission for various reasons, mechanical issues, recharging, general service, etc.
There isn't any support system in place to serve that potential market.
Of course there isn't... Duh, But there will be, once the demand is there... Just like the highways that "appeared", once cars became the main form of transport... How many miles of train tracks were there 400 or 300 Years or so ago (or whatever years it's been, since trains took off) across the world, when the first train rolled off the production line..???? probably just about 1 mile of track in the whole world was all there was, and it was the test track...

Last edited by 350htrr; 11-30-17 at 08:44 PM. Reason: add stuff
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Old 11-30-17, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
People will get away with smoking in an AV hailed car exactly once. It won't happen. In addition to cameras there are likely to be smoke detectors. There are departments of people working on addressing these problems in multiple companies right now.
Yes, people will tolerate cameras, just like security cameras watching you on the sidewalk or inside a bus or bank. That means the guy who was in there before you was being watched too. WorthIt.

It will take years to build the infra? What infra? AVs use existing infra.

I don't think you get it. You'll see. People like driving, but getting chauffeured around is pretty cool too.

There you go... The total success of the whole project depends on how may girls are in the car...
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Old 11-30-17, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
People will get away with smoking in an AV hailed car exactly once. It won't happen. In addition to cameras there are likely to be smoke detectors. There are departments of people working on addressing these problems in multiple companies right now.
Yes, people will tolerate cameras, just like security cameras watching you on the sidewalk or inside a bus or bank. That means the guy who was in there before you was being watched too. WorthIt.

It will take years to build the infra? What infra? AVs use existing infra.

I don't think you get it. You'll see. People like driving, but getting chauffeured around is pretty cool too.
A security camera that catches a glimpse of you when you pass by is far different than being watched and listened to when you are captive for that hour commute.

Lets take a city the size of Omaha. In the dream of HOV's virtually disappearing overnight, how many AV's will be needed for commuters? Add in, stay at home parents taking kids to school, Dr. appointments, running errands, self employed, people on vacation? 10k, 25k, 50k, or more daily? There has to be enough to supply peak demand, plus extra for those out of commission for various reasons, mechanical issues, recharging, general service, etc.
There isn't any support system in place to serve that potential market.
Oh, well of course there will be a transition period and it will take a few years. But building millions of identical AVs for fleet services should be faster and more efficient than building a wide variety of cars personalized with various colors, options and features.

I'm pretty sure we'll see bonafide Level 5 in 2018, but it might not be until 2019.

With half a million people in Omaha, 50,000 fleet AVs should be more than enough, even less if pooling works as well as I expect it will. But that will take few years.

Possible roll out:

A few dozen in 2019
A few hundred in 2020
Into the thousands in 2021
10000 in in 2022
25000 in 2023
50000 in 2024

Or so.
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Old 11-30-17, 08:23 PM
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You will get the quality, cleanliness and privacy you pay for.

Pay little, get a well worn vehicle with a durable interior and security camera.

Pay a lot and it will come loaded and offer privacy. Some will also own their own.
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Old 11-30-17, 08:37 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
You will get the quality, cleanliness and privacy you pay for.

Pay little, get a well worn vehicle with a durable interior and security camera.

Pay a lot and it will come loaded and offer privacy. Some will also own their own.
and.. Those are three good reasons why it will/would/could work in the long run. To own your own vehicle AND DRIVE IT FROM A TO B WHENEVER, YOU WANT, it would, on the average cost me a minimum of $5,000+ A YEAR I could take a bus and do it for much less but then I would need to modify my schedule to the bus schedule, and, it's NOT door to door...
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Old 11-30-17, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
These things are not remotely analogous.
Fan-bois of gee whiz gizmos who believe in and regurgitate whatever they read or hear that hints (to them) the imminent arrival of the Next Greatest Thing and how the entire world will be transformed in short order by its introduction and quick adaption is nothing new.

That meme has played out before but it sometimes gets a tweak, reemerges and the gullible keep on feeding their dreams.
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Old 11-30-17, 08:53 PM
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
There you go... The total success of the whole project depends on how may girls are in the car...
Not surprising the kind of fantasies the gee whiz fan bois entertain.

No wonder they have no problem with invasive cameras and privacy issues.

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Old 11-30-17, 08:55 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Fan-bois of gee whiz gizmos who believe in and regurgitate whatever they read or hear that hints (to them) the imminent arrival of the Next Greatest Thing and how the entire world will be transformed in short order by its introduction and quick adaption is nothing new.

That meme has played out before but it sometimes gets a tweak, reemerges and the gullible keep on feeding their dreams.
WOW Dude, I would have liked to hear your opinion way back when, of...

1; TV and how it will not work out.

2; Telephone over wire, and how it will not work out.

3; The internet and how it would not work out.

4; The mobile phone and how it would never work.

5; GPS and how it would not work out...

6; ... I am sure, I could come up with a few more, wait a minute, the earth IS flat, right.? ...
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Old 11-30-17, 09:01 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
That meme has played out before but it sometimes gets a tweak, reemerges and the gullible keep on feeding their dreams.
You're comparing science fiction, which no one actually believed was imminent, with extant technology already in limited use. If you think these two things are pretty much the same, I can understand why you arrive at the conclusion you do.
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Old 11-30-17, 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
WOW Dude, I would have liked to hear your opinion way back when, of...

1; TV and how it will not work out.

2; Telephone over wire, and how it will not work out.

3; The internet and how it would not work out.

4; The mobile phone and how it would never work.

5; GPS and how it would not work out...

6; ... I am sure, I could come up with a few more, wait a minute, the earth IS flat, right.? ...
All of these technologies have a dual purpose, and its not for the good of the public.

People ought to be asking serious questions about any new technology and all of its implications.

Driverless cars, are a pandoras box of unforeseen consequences that we have not yet encountered.

I support anyone who is skeptical, its a long forgotten human survival skill that seems to only exist in the wild.
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Old 11-30-17, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
You're comparing science fiction, which no one actually believed was imminent, with extant technology already in limited use. If you think these two things are pretty much the same, I can understand why you arrive at the conclusion you do.

Science fiction often becomes science fact.

Its quite often how new technology is introduced to the public, often decades before it is released.

Mobile phone technology was possible back in the 1970's, but we only saw this on star trek, same with video conferencing, etc.

Autonomous technology, if you consider what is possible with satellites, has also existed for decades, and cruise missiles, another fine example.
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Old 11-30-17, 09:19 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Fan-bois of gee whiz gizmos who believe in and regurgitate whatever they read or hear that hints (to them) the imminent arrival of the Next Greatest Thing and how the entire world will be transformed in short order by its introduction and quick adaption is nothing new.

That meme has played out before but it sometimes gets a tweak, reemerges and the gullible keep on feeding their dreams.
Yeah I remember when a bunch of fan-bois were touting this thing called the "internet" and saying how important it was going to be. It makes no sense - you need a computer to get on this internet thing and who needs a computer?
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Old 11-30-17, 09:30 PM
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Originally Posted by SHBR
All of these technologies have a dual purpose, and its not for the good of the public.

People ought to be asking serious questions about any new technology and all of its implications.

Driverless cars, are a pandoras box of unforeseen consequences that we have not yet encountered.

I support anyone who is skeptical, its a long forgotten human survival skill that seems to only exist in the wild.
That maybe as it maybe, but we, me & ILTB are differing in opinions as to would it actually work today or is just a fiction/dream of some people and is a fantasy...
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Old 11-30-17, 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Not surprising the kind of fantasies the gee whiz fan bois entertain.

No wonder they have no problem with invasive cameras and privacy issues.
Cameras... Have you been in a bank, a bus, a taxi, an airport, drive downtown, There are cameras EVERYWHERE... That is just the way it is...
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Old 11-30-17, 09:49 PM
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Originally Posted by SHBR
Science fiction often becomes science fact.

Its quite often how new technology is introduced to the public, often decades before it is released.

Mobile phone technology was possible back in the 1970's, but we only saw this on star trek, same with video conferencing, etc.

Autonomous technology, if you consider what is possible with satellites, has also existed for decades, and cruise missiles, another fine example.
What's technically possible and what's economically feasible are not the same.
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Old 11-30-17, 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
That maybe as it maybe, but we, me & ILTB are differing in opinions as to would it actually work today or is just a fiction/dream of some people and is a fantasy...
Regardless of if the technology works or not, it is going to be released, in what form, and on what scale has yet to be determined.

What is clear, is that personal motor vehicle use will become more restricted in the future, mostly through regulation and operating costs.

High operating costs for a personal vehicle will price most out of the market, and older vehicles will be deemed obsolete.

There will be options available, for the few who are fortunate to afford such luxury, the rest of us will have to make do with shared transportation that will most likely be more limited than what most people have access to now.
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Old 11-30-17, 09:53 PM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
It’s unprecedented. That whole horseless-thing was just hype....
80+ years and they still can't even make an automatic transmission that will outlast a manual. Nor have automatics completely replaced manuals, in spite of how much easier they make it to text in traffic.
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Old 11-30-17, 09:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
What's technically possible and what's economically feasible are not the same.
Might want to take a closer look at the current economic system, and start asking why?
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Old 11-30-17, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by SHBR
Driverless cars, are a pandoras box of unforeseen consequences that we have not yet encountered.
Don’t you think “Pandora’s Box” is extreme?

What’s possible to encounter in traffic in general is very well known and understood. Waymo’s cars have 4 million miles of experience already. Teslas are collecting data and gathering experience all over the world 7/24. Volvo is learning how to deal with unpredictable kangaroos. Noisebeam encounters several every day on his commute. I suggest we’re at the edges of the unknown. GM has enough confidence in its research to tell its investors they’ll have Level 5 by 2019 if not 2018.

There will be no Pandora’s box of surprises. Especially compared to human drivers. AVs are predictable, safe and mundane.
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Old 11-30-17, 11:25 PM
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Originally Posted by SHBR
Might want to take a closer look at the current economic system, and start asking why?
Why what? Why some technologies are possible but not economically feasible?

Uh, labor and materials. It’s Econ not rocket science.
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