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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 12-03-17, 08:25 PM
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Meanwhile, a woman just pulled too close in front of my mother's wonderful 2003 Buick Century that my dad have her just before he passed away six years ago and totaled it.


Real world problems. Until all cars are programmed and coordinated like airplanes this is a pipe dream and people still long to feel how a car handles under their control.


Machines are made by humans, and humans are rather messed up.


Hey, Isaac Asimov dreamed of a time when all sexually transmitted diseases were eliminated or curable and quite ironically he received an HIV-tainted blood transfusion and died of AIDS.
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Old 12-04-17, 01:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
Until all cars are programmed and coordinated like airplanes this is a pipe dream and people still long to feel how a car handles under their control.
How do you reconcile this position with the fact that Waymo's self-driving cars have logged over FOUR MILLION miles (without any airplane-like coordination) and GM has told its stockholders to expect them to have Level 5 (no human driver) cars (also without airplane-like coordination) on the road by 2019 if not in 2018?

Not to mention that posters on this thread in certain cities encounter self-driving cars on a daily basis.

Speaking of pipe dreams, that's what longing to feel how a car handles under their control is. You know what people long to do? Nap or work or surf the web in traffic on their way to and from work. Or shopping for that matter. They couldn't care less how their car handles in rush hour traffic.

People who long how to feel how their cars handle buy sports cars that are rarely used for commuting. The vast majority of cars are work horses... Camrys, Accords, Priuses, Jettas, Volts, Bolts, F250s, etc.

The speed with which people will loosen their grips on steering wheels will be lightning fast.

Mark my words.
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Old 12-05-17, 02:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm

The speed with which people will loosen their grips on steering wheels will be lightning fast.
In your dreams.
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Old 12-05-17, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
In your dreams.
Not really a dream so much as just a prediction. I happen to believe that cyclists can mitigate risk from human motorists much more than most seem to realize, and I ride accordingly, so I personally won't be affected much, but cyclists who mostly try to avoid controlling lanes will benefit immensely by the replacement of humans with computer drivers.

The bottom line is that humans follow the path of least resistance, and getting inexpensive and convenient rides will be that, very soon, so that's what most will choose.

You'll see.
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Old 12-05-17, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
In your dreams.
The elite don't typically drive their own.
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Old 12-05-17, 07:18 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Yeah I remember when a bunch of fan-bois were touting this thing called the "internet" and saying how important it was going to be. It makes no sense - you need a computer to get on this internet thing and who needs a computer?
And even if people had computers, the infrastructure costs of actually connecting everyone's home would render this little more than a pipe dream. The internet will surely be restricted to limited traffic at military installations and major research facilities.
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Old 12-05-17, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
And even if people had computers, the infrastructure costs of actually connecting everyone's home would render this little more than a pipe dream. The internet will surely be restricted to limited traffic at military installations and major research facilities.
Don't forget to mention the similar platitude that since man has set foot on the moon, everything ever predicted or dreamed about or worked on is not only possible but a lock/sure thing certainty. Not only that, but guaranteed to occur sooner rather than later and such "truth" is only doubted by unenlightened Luddites.
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Old 12-05-17, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
How do you reconcile this position with the fact that Waymo's self-driving cars have logged over FOUR MILLION miles (without any airplane-like coordination) and GM has told its stockholders to expect them to have Level 5 (no human driver) cars (also without airplane-like coordination) on the road by 2019 if not in 2018?

Not to mention that posters on this thread in certain cities encounter self-driving cars on a daily basis.

Speaking of pipe dreams, that's what longing to feel how a car handles under their control is. You know what people long to do? Nap or work or surf the web in traffic on their way to and from work. Or shopping for that matter. They couldn't care less how their car handles in rush hour traffic.

People who long how to feel how their cars handle buy sports cars that are rarely used for commuting. The vast majority of cars are work horses... Camrys, Accords, Priuses, Jettas, Volts, Bolts, F250s, etc.

The speed with which people will loosen their grips on steering wheels will be lightning fast.

Mark my words.
Okay ..your words are marked.. I read that millennials do in fact like buying cars and have longer payment schedules because how expensive cars are today.. The only thing that is going to get people out if cars is if people start dropping over dead from the pollution killing them from car fumes...and even then only if happens to some one in their family.. Personally I would love the Holland approach to getting around but don't think America is heading that way any time soon.. Suzy spoil sport here..hehehe
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Old 12-05-17, 08:28 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
And even if people had computers, the infrastructure costs of actually connecting everyone's home would render this little more than a pipe dream. The internet will surely be restricted to limited traffic at military installations and major research facilities.
Yet, despite the obvious and undeniable impracticalities of this internet thing, some people got suckered in by all the hype and are investing heavily in it. They might as well just take that money and flush it down the toilet.

(This one idiot is trying to sell books over the internet and looking for investors (suckers). What a stupid idea that is - why would I order a book over the internet when I can just go to the bookstore and get the book right now?)
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Old 12-05-17, 08:56 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Yet, despite the obvious and undeniable impracticalities of this internet thing, some people got suckered in by all the hype and are investing heavily in it. They might as well just take that money and flush it down the toilet.

(This one idiot is trying to sell books over the internet and looking for investors (suckers). What a stupid idea that is - why would I order a book over the internet when I can just go to the bookstore and get the book right now?)


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Old 12-05-17, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Yet, despite the obvious and undeniable impracticalities of this internet thing, some people got suckered in by all the hype and are investing heavily in it. They might as well just take that money and flush it down the toilet.

(This one idiot is trying to sell books over the internet and looking for investors (suckers). What a stupid idea that is - why would I order a book over the internet when I can just go to the bookstore and get the book right now?)
Another point, when you order an online version of a book, do you actually own it? I believe Richard Stallman nicknamed that particular device as the "swindle". His argument against that device, was that it does not allow you to pay cash and remain anonymous, something that might still be possible with a bricks and mortar book store.

Most likely the majority of these autonomous vehicles will be rental use only, the end users will not be allowed to tinker with the software. Which will be closed source, and DMCA protected, just like current electronics on modern cars.

The companies involved are considered, "too big to fail".

I'm sure all of the employees working with AV's have to sign NDA agreements.

What could go wrong eh?
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Old 12-06-17, 12:31 AM
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Originally Posted by SHBR
Another point, when you order an online version of a book, do you actually own it? I believe Richard Stallman nicknamed that particular device as the "swindle". His argument against that device, was that it does not allow you to pay cash and remain anonymous, something that might still be possible with a bricks and mortar book store.

Most likely the majority of these autonomous vehicles will be rental use only, the end users will not be allowed to tinker with the software. Which will be closed source, and DMCA protected, just like current electronics on modern cars.

The companies involved are considered, "too big to fail".

I'm sure all of the employees working with AV's have to sign NDA agreements.

What could go wrong eh?
I don't understand your point or concern.

Most AVs will be rented, but mostly just for one trip, one-way, at a time, though keeping one for a day, or longer, should also be possible, for prices comparable to renting a normal car.

I think the cost of ownership and maintenance will probably be distributed to small local companies that will join a riding hailing service like Uber. So instead of owning and driving one car for Uber, you'll own and maintain a small fleet. And, just like drivers can work for Uber and Lyft, your AVs can be hired through Uber or Lyft.

Uber will make more money by owning its own cars, but I expect ride prices to be very competitive, profit margins thin, and it will make more sense to mitigate capital investment risk through small owners.

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Old 12-08-17, 12:31 AM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
And even if people had computers, the infrastructure costs of actually connecting everyone's home would render this little more than a pipe dream. The internet will surely be restricted to limited traffic at military installations and major research facilities.
36 years from actual rollout of DARPANET to 50% of US households having internet access. Yeah, that one just blasted right on into everybody's living room in a big ol' hurry.
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Old 12-08-17, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
36 years from actual rollout of DARPANET to 50% of US households having internet access. Yeah, that one just blasted right on into everybody's living room in a big ol' hurry.
The average age of a car in the US is 11.5 years... so every 11-12 years, folks buy a new automobile... So there is a pretty good chance that "churn" is going to put a lot of AVs on the road in about 24 years. And keep in mind, a lot more folks owned cars, than owned computers... 36 years ago.

Also keep in mind that the "www" portion of the web, the part that most folks use and can understand... didn't come out until 27 years ago... in 1990... which if you recall, was also the time of the "dial up modem." If you were around back then, you might recall that there wasn't a whole lot to the net at that time... Amazon, for instance, was launched in 1995.
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Old 12-08-17, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
The average age of a car in the US is 11.5 years... so every 11-12 years, folks buy a new automobile... So there is a pretty good chance that "churn" is going to put a lot of AVs on the road in about 24 years.
That assumes that significant numbers of AVs will be owned non-commercially and bought to replace manually-driven automobiles. I suspect that will be a very small fraction of the AV market.

I predict the vast majority of AVs will be sold to be used by car hailing services. Whether they will be bought directly by the Ubers and Lyfts, or by private operators who operate and maintain fleets for Uber and Lyft, etc., remains unclear to me. It will probably be a combination.

In any case, people are not going to wait until it's time to buy a new car to start using hailed AVs, just like they use Uber and Lyft today without selling their vehicles. But since AV cars will be much cheaper to hire, they will use it much more.

In most urban and suburban areas, there should be a car available within seconds. Probably more quickly and conveniently than getting your own car out of the parking garage for dwellers in large apartment/condo complexes, not to mention the convenience of being taken to the front door of your destination while luxuriously surfing bikeforums the entire ride rather than having to look for parking, pay for parking, and then walking to said destination.

One of the biggest issues in the 2020s will be figuring out what to do with all the personal cars nobody is using any more.
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Old 12-08-17, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
That assumes that significant numbers of AVs will be owned non-commercially and bought to replace manually-driven automobiles. I suspect that will be a very small fraction of the AV market.

I predict the vast majority of AVs will be sold to be used by car hailing services. Whether they will be bought directly by the Ubers and Lyfts, or by private operators who operate and maintain fleets for Uber and Lyft, etc., remains unclear to me. It will probably be a combination.

In any case, people are not going to wait until it's time to buy a new car to start using hailed AVs, just like they use Uber and Lyft today without selling their vehicles. But since AV cars will be much cheaper to hire, they will use it much more.

In most urban and suburban areas, there should be a car available within seconds. Probably more quickly and conveniently than getting your own car out of the parking garage for dwellers in large apartment/condo complexes, not to mention the convenience of being taken to the front door of your destination while luxuriously surfing bikeforums the entire ride rather than having to look for parking, pay for parking, and then walking to said destination.

One of the biggest issues in the 2020s will be figuring out what to do with all the personal cars nobody is using any more.
I think you nailed it... and that will mean less problems for bicyclers too...

Last edited by 350htrr; 12-08-17 at 06:05 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old 12-08-17, 05:50 PM
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One of the biggest issues in the 2020s will be figuring out what to do with all the personal cars nobody is using any more.
Housing... for the less fortunate... beats a tent.
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Old 12-08-17, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
One of the biggest issues in the 2020s will be figuring out what to do with all the personal cars nobody is using any more.
The biggest issue will be how to re-employ all the drivers that will be out of work. Seriously, it will be a big problem.
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Old 12-08-17, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
The biggest issue will be how to re-employ all the drivers that will be out of work. Seriously, it will be a big problem.
Yea, I wonder how many people actually make their living driving, here in N America...
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Old 12-08-17, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
The biggest issue will be how to re-employ all the drivers that will be out of work. Seriously, it will be a big problem.
Oh, yes. Not a good time to get into the truck driving biz.

Not sure how they're going to solve "the last 50 feet" problem either - getting deliveries from self-driven delivery trucks to the front door.

Robots?
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Old 12-08-17, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Oh, yes. Not a good time to get into the truck driving biz.

Not sure how they're going to solve "the last 50 feet" problem either - getting deliveries from self-driven delivery trucks to the front door.

Robots?

If the delivery person doesn't have to drive they can be paid less than a driving delivery person. But these small batch delivery drivers might be the last to go (both home delivery and corner store delivery). Taxis/Ubers/bus drivers will probably be the first to go. Long haul truckers will be next. That's already massive displacement.

You know what other industry is going to take a big hit: auto body repair.
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Old 12-08-17, 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
If the delivery person doesn't have to drive they can be paid less than a driving delivery person. But these small batch delivery drivers might be the last to go (both home delivery and corner store delivery). Taxis/Ubers/bus drivers will probably be the first to go. Long haul truckers will be next. That's already massive displacement.

You know what other industry is going to take a big hit: auto body repair.
WOW, never thought of that, but good point. How about ambulance,... not as many accidents = ... Oh, doctors/emergency personnel... ? Oh, how about the undertakers, grave diggers, flower people,... with 40,000 less people dying every year a couple of hundred thousand not getting injured, thing will change... NO... ?

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Old 12-08-17, 07:59 PM
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Are you fellows practicing a comedy act for a vaudeville show?
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Old 12-08-17, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Are you fellows practicing a comedy act for a vaudeville show?
Oh, no worries. Your posts are the funniest of all, hands down.
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Old 12-10-17, 12:37 PM
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I think this WaPo article provides an accurate description of how self-driving cars will appear in society incrementally. However, I predict the growth will be exponential. If bonafide Level 5 cars are starting to appear in 2019 in a few city neighborhoods, they should be ubiquitous in most cities by 2021 and everywhere by 2025.

Autonomous vehicles won’t arrive overnight, but almost every week they seem to inch a bit closer to becoming an everyday reality.

The latest example of that incremental progress occurred in Boston on Wednesday when Lyft announced that the ride-sharing company has begun a self-driving car pilot in the city’s Seaport district. The program, accessible through the Lyft app, is a partnership with the autonomous vehicle startup NuTonomy, which has been testing their cars in Boston since January.
...
Experts predict that driverless cars will advance neighborhood by neighborhood, city by city and state by state as competing car companies gather data, refine their robots and look to grab more territory using what they’ve already learned. The result is likely to be a patchwork of gradual change.

The program marks an important step for Lyft as it competes with Uber, which has unveiled autonomous taxis in Phoenix and Pittsburgh. Those taxis include a human backup driver, but the company has unveiled an ambitious plan to put completely driverless Volvo Taxis on the road in 2019 — likely in the United States. Lyft, meanwhile, has partnered with at least five automakers, including Jaguar, Ford, Waymo, GM, and Drive.AI.

The shifting alliances and new partnerships are the latest step as traditional automakers and Silicon Valley startups look to gain an edge in the race for self-driving supremacy.

A General Motors executive told The Post last week that the company is rushing to launch autonomous vehicles for a ride-hailing service that could compete with Uber and Lyft. GM says those robotic vehicles — battery-powered Chevy Bolts that are being developed by Cruise Automation, a subsidiary — will appear on American streets without a driver in 2019.

GM has already begun testing autonomous vehicles on crowded San Francisco streets, said vehicles will not have human backup drivers.


www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/12/07/using-the-lyft-app-in-boston-you-might-get-picked-up-by-a-self-driving-car
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