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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 12-10-17, 01:24 PM
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.9f94d20c83b0

Guess whose fault it was when this driverless bus got into an accident the first two Hrs it was on the road...
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Old 12-10-17, 03:00 PM
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https://www.rand.org/blog/articles/2...ost-lives.html

and... thus it starts...
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Old 12-10-17, 05:16 PM
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https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL279/tool.html

I like this little tool to figure out how many lives would be saved by AV in 40 years... 500,000 +/- under some different conditions...

EDIT; With the numbers I used, because I believe things will happen really fast... 1.4million lives would be/could be saved in 40 years, thus to stay on topic some of those would be cyclists, and, that would mean AV vehicles are nothing but good... Except, for the people who actually like/or even love to drive... Which includes me...

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Old 12-10-17, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
How do you reconcile this position with the fact that Waymo's self-driving cars have logged over FOUR MILLION miles (without any airplane-like coordination) and GM has told its stockholders to expect them to have Level 5 (no human driver) cars (also without airplane-like coordination) on the road by 2019 if not in 2018?

Not to mention that posters on this thread in certain cities encounter self-driving cars on a daily basis.

Speaking of pipe dreams, that's what longing to feel how a car handles under their control is. You know what people long to do? Nap or work or surf the web in traffic on their way to and from work. Or shopping for that matter. They couldn't care less how their car handles in rush hour traffic.

People who long how to feel how their cars handle buy sports cars that are rarely used for commuting. The vast majority of cars are work horses... Camrys, Accords, Priuses, Jettas, Volts, Bolts, F250s, etc.

The speed with which people will loosen their grips on steering wheels will be lightning fast.

Mark my words.
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Old 12-10-17, 07:48 PM
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I think that if you are so excited by this you are wasting your time not opening a dealership. Telling us here that we have to haul our bikes on our backs while pedaling is kinda disingenuous.
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Old 12-11-17, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
I think that if you are so excited by this you are wasting your time not opening a dealership. Telling us here that we have to haul our bikes on our backs while pedaling is kinda disingenuous.
A dealership? Are you even reading my posts? Dealerships are soon to be history.
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Old 12-11-17, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
A dealership? Are you even reading my posts? Dealerships are soon to be history.
Why? Because you say so? Or because somebody else said so and you believe it?
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Old 12-11-17, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Why? Because you say so? Or because somebody else said so and you believe it?
In the context of someone suggesting I should open a dealership I think it's relevant to point out that I'm the one who believes dealerships will be disappearing over the next decade.

Since you ask, I've not encountered anyone else making that specific prediction, but I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Google makes it easy:


"Additionally, car dealerships, independent car mechanics and gas stations all become reclaimed territory in the landscape over time, starting in urban areas and eventually spreading."


www.recode.net/2017/4/19/15364608/autonomous-self-driving-cars-impact-disruption-society-mobility


"However, autonomous vehicles could send shockwaves across the car industry by eroding private demand for new cars."

wardsauto.com/technology/impact-autonomous-vehicles-auto-industry
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Old 12-11-17, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Since you ask, I've not encountered anyone else making that specific prediction, but I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Google makes it easy:
You are right, Google, Twitter, et al, make it easy to find all sorts of people making all sorts of predictions, guesses and wacky claims on every subject imaginable. Quite useful for people to find "support" for their Wild Donkey Guesswork.
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Old 12-11-17, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
You are right, Google, Twitter, et al, make it easy to find all sorts of people making all sorts of predictions, guesses and wacky claims on every subject imaginable. Quite useful for people to find "support" for their Wild Donkey Guesswork.
Except nobody who has the intelligence to predict with confidence is predicting otherwise.
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Old 12-11-17, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
In the context of someone suggesting I should open a dealership I think it's relevant to point out that I'm the one who believes dealerships will be disappearing over the next decade.

Since you ask, I've not encountered anyone else making that specific prediction, but I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Google makes it easy:


"Additionally, car dealerships, independent car mechanics and gas stations all become reclaimed territory in the landscape over time, starting in urban areas and eventually spreading."


www.recode.net/2017/4/19/15364608/autonomous-self-driving-cars-impact-disruption-society-mobility


"However, autonomous vehicles could send shockwaves across the car industry by eroding private demand for new cars."

wardsauto.com/technology/impact-autonomous-vehicles-auto-industry
If this does all come to pass, I suspect dealerships as we know them will disappear... but fleet maintenance centers will have to be created to keep share cars clean, repaired, and otherwise regularly maintained.

If there are private ownership dealers, I suspect that they might be like Tesla... just mall shops, right next to Crate and Barrel and other high end shops. You go in, admire the features, select options, fill out forms... and perhaps your new car drives itself right to your door a week later.

Otherwise, I suspect that folks will access kiosks in mall like locations, similar to cell phone centers that exist today... just select your desired lease package and when you call the car, your pre-selected choice will arrive where needed.

No doubt even further "down the road," all this may take place on your computer... select and go.
No matter what, there will still need to be maintenance areas somewhere... it only makes sense to locate them close to areas of high AV use.

Yes, this is all speculation on my part. Only time and marketing will provide all the answers.
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Old 12-11-17, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
If this does all come to pass, I suspect dealerships as we know them will disappear... but fleet maintenance centers will have to be created to keep share cars clean, repaired, and otherwise regularly maintained.

If there are private ownership dealers, I suspect that they might be like Tesla... just mall shops, right next to Crate and Barrel and other high end shops. You go in, admire the features, select options, fill out forms... and perhaps your new car drives itself right to your door a week later.

Otherwise, I suspect that folks will access kiosks in mall like locations, similar to cell phone centers that exist today... just select your desired lease package and when you call the car, your pre-selected choice will arrive where needed.

No doubt even further "down the road," all this may take place on your computer... select and go.
No matter what, there will still need to be maintenance areas somewhere... it only makes sense to locate them close to areas of high AV use.

Yes, this is all speculation on my part. Only time and marketing will provide all the answers.
Tesla is in the same boat with everyone else. They will have to build hailing service AVs because little else will be selling.
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Old 12-13-17, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
One of the biggest issues in the 2020s will be figuring out what to do with all the personal cars nobody is using any more.
Figure this one out first. https://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...htmlstory.html
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Old 12-13-17, 08:25 AM
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The DynaTAC 2000X cost $3,995 in 1984. Add on a couple of accessories you'd need to actually use the DynaTAC 2000X, you'd be out about 10,000 2017 dollars.

Clearly those stupid "toys" will never work.

Anyhow, you too can BUY A LIDAR NOW.

-mr. bill

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Old 12-13-17, 08:48 AM
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Moving bodies

Amazing all this technology... Just to move your body from one location to another... Some thing to think about? Yet our bodies are designed for motion and movement? Hmmmm 😒
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Old 12-13-17, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by rossiny
Amazing all this technology... Just to move your body from one location to another... Some thing to think about? Yet our bodies are designed for motion and movement? Hmmmm 😒
Moving from place to place is easy.... moving at 60MPH... not so easy.
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Old 12-13-17, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by genec
Moving from place to place is easy.... moving at 60MPH... not so easy.
From what I've seen, moving at 50 mph isn't much easier. Or 40 mph.

-mr. bill
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Old 12-13-17, 10:17 AM
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"Would self driving car be safer..."

Well, looks like I'm going to find out. We're getting a self-driving shuttle bus next year according to my local paper. And we already have one of the hottest spots for cycling fatalities in the state (hard to believe given I don't live in Miami).

Self-driving vehicle in college town with high rate of accidents involving student cyclists. What could possibly go wrong?

Last edited by Roadwanderer; 12-13-17 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 12-13-17, 10:48 AM
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Did you read past the headline?

"Today, the highest-end automotive lidar systems available cost $75,000, made by a company named Velodyne. Ouster claims its new system, the OS1, boasts near-top performance for less than a fifth of that cost, or $12,000."

And this story about Waymo building its own Lidar system is almost a year old now:
Google’s Waymo invests in LIDAR technology, cuts costs by 90 percent


Also, a Hungarian company is working on an (albeit controversial) approach that doesn't use Lidar at all:

www.businessinsider.com/hungarian-startup-aimotive-cameras-autonomous-cars-2017-12


Some of the smartest people in the world are working on this. They'll figure it out, if they haven't already.
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Old 12-13-17, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Roadwanderer
"Would self driving car be safer..."

Well, looks like I'm going to find out. We're getting a self-driving shuttle bus next year according to my local paper. And we already have one of the hottest spots for cycling fatalities in the state (hard to believe given I don't live in Miami).
GAToRS?

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Old 12-13-17, 12:45 PM
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Volvo is doing a lot of self-driving testing back home in Sweden where I suspect they encounter a fair share of adverse weather conditions.

Volvo plans to launch an autonomous production car by 2021 and expects data gleaned from the Drive Me test families to aid in development. Three more families get test cars early next year. Volvo expects up to 100 people to be involved in the program over the next four years. The automaker's self-driving production car is expected to achieve SAE Level 4 autonomy, meaning it will be able to drive itself in most situations but may require occasional human intervention.


Prototype Volvo self-driving cars are already being tested on public roads in designated areas of Gothenburg.


www.thedrive.com/self-driving-cars/16941/swedish-families-help-with-volvo-self-driving-car-development


10-day forecast for Gothenburg includes temps in the 20s and snow.
weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Gothenburg+Sweden+SWXX0007:1:SW


All these companies are doing most of their testing in simulators - the real-world testing, which is relatively minimal, is for data collection (used in the simulators) and sanity testing.
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Old 12-13-17, 12:45 PM
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Yep
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Old 12-13-17, 12:57 PM
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Interesting point made by Ford exec Jim Farley - hybrids are a better choice for AVs than full electrics. More economical. Of course he's talking about commercial use, which I believe is going to be the primary use (hailing services). I've wondered about that. Makes sense.

Also, he thinks the technology is a done deal and is more concerned with the business model.


"Others have made a big deal about verifying the technology; we think that's table stakes," Farley, Ford's president of global markets, told Automotive News.

"We think what's important is to verify the business model. The most important thing is that we execute well. We don't want to get ahead of our skis."




www.autonews.com/article/20171211/OEM06/171219941/ford-hybrid-autonomous-technology
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Old 12-13-17, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Did you read past the headline?

"Today, the highest-end automotive lidar systems available cost $75,000, made by a company named Velodyne. Ouster claims its new system, the OS1, boasts near-top performance for less than a fifth of that cost, or $12,000."

And this story about Waymo building its own Lidar system is almost a year old now:
Google’s Waymo invests in LIDAR technology, cuts costs by 90 percent


Also, a Hungarian company is working on an (albeit controversial) approach that doesn't use Lidar at all:

www.businessinsider.com/hungarian-startup-aimotive-cameras-autonomous-cars-2017-12


Some of the smartest people in the world are working on this. They'll figure it out, if they haven't already.
Pretty much what was contained in the article I linked to.

Did you read it?
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Old 12-13-17, 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
Pretty much what was contained in the article I linked to.

Did you read it?
Yes I did. Your challenge was to figure "this" out first, and you quoted the title of the LAT article. "Lidar costs $75,000 per car. If the price doesn't drop to a few hundred bucks, driverless cars won't go mass market."

But the article itself, and the other links I posted, all indicate the price will drop to at least a few thousand bucks. I disagree with the article that it needs to drop to a few hundred bucks, but it might do that too, especially if the Swedish approach works out. That reminds me, Tesla has been doing quite well without Lidar too.

In other words, what is there to figure out?
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