Go Back  Bike Forums > Bike Forums > Advocacy & Safety
Reload this Page >

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Notices
Advocacy & Safety Cyclists should expect and demand safe accommodation on every public road, just as do all other users. Discuss your bicycle advocacy and safety concerns here.

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 12-29-17, 04:08 PM
  #876  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,984
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2488 Post(s)
Liked 735 Times in 520 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
It won't be feasible to force automatic control for decades.
You just used a computer or a cell phone to post this. You were wrong 20 years ago when you insisted there could never be anything called the Internet for at least 50 years, if ever, and you are wrong now in predicting that it will take "decades" before self-driving cars can take over from humans. Don't y'all learn? Even without AI, machines 'learn'. How they do that is above my pay grade, but I can observe the results. My powers of observation are not occluded by hysteria or ... bafflement.
Leisesturm is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 04:13 PM
  #877  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,077

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by Leisesturm
You just used a computer or a cell phone to post this. You were wrong 20 years ago when you insisted there could never be anything called the Internet for at least 50 years
I've been using the internet since the 1980s.

you are wrong now in predicting that it will take "decades" before self-driving cars can take over from humans
In 2014 I predicted self driving cars would be in commercial use on public roads by 2018.

What I said today was that it wouldn't be feasible to force automatic control of cars for decades, that is there will still be human driven cars for decades.

Last edited by tyrion; 12-29-17 at 04:19 PM.
tyrion is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 04:35 PM
  #878  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13658 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
I've been using the internet since the 1980s.



In 2014 I predicted self driving cars would be in commercial use on public roads by 2018.

What I said today was that it wouldn't be feasible to force automatic control of cars for decades, that is there will still be human driven cars for decades.
I suspect you are correct on this... however, if it is discovered that AVs save massive amounts of lives... there may be some future legislation that makes owning a "manual car" prohibitively expensive... or insurance for manual cars might make them a "luxury."

But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
genec is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 04:36 PM
  #879  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,984
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2488 Post(s)
Liked 735 Times in 520 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
If ever. The legal right to drive your own car on public roads has over 100 years of precedent - that will be tough to overcome.

But what is likely to happen is more stringent training and licensing requirements - to bring human driving up to par with AVs in terms of safety.

It's all good.
There is no amount of training and licensing that will allow a Navy fighter ace to attempt a carrier landing at sea anymore. The aircraft are worth more than the pilots vanity and the Navy will ground a pilot who does not show both hands to the forward observer during a carrier approach. Collectively American drivers have killed way more productive citizens than the country can afford to lose and the nanosecond the AV's are ready the collective body of mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, **** autocentrus will be grounded by the DOT en masse. Computers may not know the shortcut through the alley behind the 7-11 that gets you onto I-75 five minutes quicker than the 'right way' but they do know how to get all the way to Ypsilanti and back without wrapping it around someone's badly parked Escalade on the way home (after too many Boilermakers).

There is no amount of training that will make a human driver better than the best drivers on the road today. They aren't good (excellent) drivers because of their training. They are good (excellent) because of their aptitude (talent) for the task. Their focus. Integrity. Nothing we don't all have. No matter. It isn't good enough. Not by half. Machines don't blink. Don't yawn. The machine will NOT screw up. If an AV gets into an accident (and it could) it will be because something mechanical failed, the bridge it was on collapsed, the tunnel it was in collapsed, other circumstances beyond any entities ability to do anything about.

Seriously. I am really getting annoyed when people seriously put forth the position that humans are actually better at anything than a properly designed and programmed machine. The cars don't need to get as good as humans! They are already better than the best humans driving now! They can't think. Can't reason. Can't improvise but they can maneuver a car for crying out loud. That doesn't take human level consciousness. It takes superhuman focus. Sadly, despite, or maybe because of our human consciousness, we don't always focus. Humans invent machines to improve those things we know need improvement. Like flying and driving. It won't be decades my friend. That is the comfort that those who are only in their 30's facing all this... disempowerment...tell each other. Yes its scary... I sympathize. But there is an upside. You never have to dread the phone ringing in the dead of night will be the Highway Police telling you a loved one is at the coroners because they rolled their Miata on a bad corner.
Leisesturm is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 04:46 PM
  #880  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,984
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2488 Post(s)
Liked 735 Times in 520 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
I suspect you are correct on this... however, if it is discovered that AVs save massive amounts of lives... there may be some future legislation that makes owning a "manual car" prohibitively expensive... or insurance for manual cars might make them a "luxury."

But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
We are caught in a real existential bind with regard to the 2nd Amendment and its misinterpretation which protects gun makers and gun owners from mass reprisal. Automobiles do not have any Constitutional protection of which I am aware. Nor is the right to drive an inalienable right. Yep the insurance industry will enact maximal financial pain on those who wish to take their human driven automobiles on public roads and I wouldn't want to be the driver who gets into even a minor fender bender with another vehicle. Even my vivid imagination is no match for the real fate of a human who causes even minor damage to an AV. "If it is discovered that AV's save massive amounts of lives"... <smh> you are still hedging your bets on this. I don't belive it. After all you've seen and heard you still hold out some hope that this whole AV thing will turn out to be some kind of 'vaporware'. Wow, just wow...
Leisesturm is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 04:53 PM
  #881  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13658 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
The key words being... "a properly designed and programmed machine."

Sorry, but time and time again it has been shown that industry will take shortcuts to achieve profits... whether it is in not installing controlling hardware that will prevent train crashes, or installing software that will cripple a phone to suit the companies' MTBF, or in designing crash airbags with improper explosives such that they harm rather than protect.

While I tend to believe that self driving cars can be better drivers than a vast number of current human drivers... I also have no faith in industry at large, and the ability of business in general to f*** up technology for the sake of profit.

We really still are at the wait and see stage.

While I do believe in tech, I worked in tech long enough to see human made decisions kill viable products... and some of this was for the stupidest little business reasons. Oh the tales I could tell... SIGH
genec is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 04:55 PM
  #882  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Bay Area, Calif.
Posts: 7,239
Mentioned: 13 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 659 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 7 Times in 6 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
If ever. The legal right to drive your own car on public roads has over 100 years of precedent - that will be tough to overcome.

But what is likely to happen is more stringent training and licensing requirements - to bring human driving up to par with AVs in terms of safety.

It's all good.
Agreed although I don't think it will be feasible 'to bring human driving up to par with AVs'. Although legally driving is defined as a privilege rather than a right, there is extreme reluctance to restrict that privilege as long as legislatures, judges, and juries view driving as almost a necessity for normal daily living. Once AVs become the standard accepted way to get around I'd expect the standards for obtaining a driver's license to gradually become more strict, possibly on par with current requirements for a private pilot license. And judges and juries will no longer have much sympathy for those who violate traffic laws while choosing to drive manually making license revocation far easier.
prathmann is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 05:08 PM
  #883  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,077

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
I suspect you are correct on this... however, if it is discovered that AVs save massive amounts of lives... there may be some future legislation that makes owning a "manual car" prohibitively expensive... or insurance for manual cars might make them a "luxury."

But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
I agree human driven cars will become more and more of a luxury and associated costs will increase and will eventually become a rich person's hobby. But we (in USA) have 250 million human driven cars right now, and it will take a while for them to be replaced.
tyrion is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 05:33 PM
  #884  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by prathmann
Agreed although I don't think it will be feasible 'to bring human driving up to par with AVs'. Although legally driving is defined as a privilege rather than a right, there is extreme reluctance to restrict that privilege as long as legislatures, judges, and juries view driving as almost a necessity for normal daily living. Once AVs become the standard accepted way to get around I'd expect the standards for obtaining a driver's license to gradually become more strict, possibly on par with current requirements for a private pilot license. And judges and juries will no longer have much sympathy for those who violate traffic laws while choosing to drive manually making license revocation far easier.
Yeah, up to par won't be possible. Poor choice of words. But there should be a lot of social pressure to improve human drivers. From insurance companies as well as government.

Last edited by Ninety5rpm; 12-29-17 at 06:05 PM.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 06:08 PM
  #885  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
I agree human driven cars will become more and more of a luxury and associated costs will increase and will eventually become a rich person's hobby. But we (in USA) have 250 million human driven cars right now, and it will take a while for them to be replaced.
Actually, I think that can happen very quickly. Uber/Lyft is already convenient and cheap enough to replace us as drivers when we're on vacation. Once they become self-driving and much cheaper, it will make sense to do that and work on the way to work. That will happen almost over night.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 06:54 PM
  #886  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Canada, PG BC
Posts: 3,849

Bikes: 27 speed ORYX with over 39,000Kms on it and another 14,000KMs with a BionX E-Assist on it

Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1024 Post(s)
Liked 57 Times in 49 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Actually, I think that can happen very quickly. Uber/Lyft is already convenient and cheap enough to replace us as drivers when we're on vacation. Once they become self-driving and much cheaper, it will make sense to do that and work on the way to work. That will happen almost over night.
Well, a few years anyways... But as far as major changes In social "behaviour" it will be, almost over night... Why...? Because most people find it hard to keep up vehicles as a "normal" expense... They are very expensive, for the average person, but pretty well everyone "tries" to keep up with the "Jones's" but when it starts to change it will happen fast...

Last edited by 350htrr; 12-29-17 at 06:58 PM.
350htrr is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 07:44 PM
  #887  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,077

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Actually, I think that can happen very quickly. Uber/Lyft is already convenient and cheap enough to replace us as drivers when we're on vacation. Once they become self-driving and much cheaper, it will make sense to do that and work on the way to work. That will happen almost over night.
We can't replace the capacity of 250 million cars overnight.
tyrion is offline  
Old 12-29-17, 08:09 PM
  #888  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Bay Area, Calif.
Posts: 7,239
Mentioned: 13 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 659 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 7 Times in 6 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
We can't replace the capacity of 250 million cars overnight.
Fortunately even at peak hours only a fraction of those 250 million cars are actually in use - and a much smaller fraction of their potential capacity. I'd expect fleet use of AVs to lead to an increasing amount of ride sharing and very high utilization during peak times.

But yes, even if only a small fraction of those 5 x 250 million car seats need to be replaced it'll still be a fairly long term project.
prathmann is offline  
Old 12-30-17, 06:50 PM
  #889  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by prathmann
Fortunately even at peak hours only a fraction of those 250 million cars are actually in use - and a much smaller fraction of their potential capacity. I'd expect fleet use of AVs to lead to an increasing amount of ride sharing and very high utilization during peak times.

But yes, even if only a small fraction of those 5 x 250 million car seats need to be replaced it'll still be a fairly long term project.
Exactly, and certainly not literally overnight.

It would be interesting to know what peak demand is. That is, what percentage of total car seats are used during peak commute times in a given area? That would give us an idea of how many ride share cars would be needed to replace, say, half those human drivers. Then we could estimate how long that would take. That said, the US alone produces 4 million cars per year.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 12-30-17, 08:05 PM
  #890  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
What is the peak demand for washer and dryers in US homes; or toasters, or showers, or even in door plumbing/toilets? Owning such products to have them available on demand carries a lot of weight for most people. Only those who can't afford it or have some wacky theories stuck in their heads about the lack of value of convenience would give up owning such useful products for the wishful thinking vaporware of the techo dreamers.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 12-30-17, 11:06 PM
  #891  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13658 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
What is the peak demand for washer and dryers in US homes; or toasters, or showers, or even in door plumbing/toilets? Owning such products to have them available on demand carries a lot of weight for most people. Only those who can't afford it or have some wacky theories stuck in their heads about the lack of value of convenience would give up owning such useful products for the wishful thinking vaporware of the techo dreamers.
Yeah... "wacky theories... "

Even in places where public transportation isn't an option, carshare services like Zipcar and rideshare services like Lyft and Uber make it easier than ever to use a car only when you need one, and not worry about it when you don't.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2.../#778219927726

There's a lot of evidence that millennials don't drive as much — or care as much for cars in general — as previous generations their own age did. They're less likely to get driver's licenses. They tend to take fewer car trips, and when they do, those trips are shorter. They're also more likely than older generations to get around by alternative means: by foot, by bike, or by transit.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.460fc7ce7877

Driving numbers are down for younger people and the auto industry hasn’t found a way to respond. It’s because they don’t understand why millennials could possibly not want to drive.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.fas...figure-out-why

And on and on it goes... a new generation... new transportation. The age of the buggy whip is long past.

Last edited by genec; 12-30-17 at 11:11 PM.
genec is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 12:22 AM
  #892  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
What is the peak demand for washer and dryers in US homes; or toasters, or showers, or even in door plumbing/toilets? Owning such products to have them available on demand carries a lot of weight for most people. Only those who can't afford it or have some wacky theories stuck in their heads about the lack of value of convenience would give up owning such useful products for the wishful thinking vaporware of the techo dreamers.
There's certainly a convenience in having a car available 24/7 in the garage, and being able to to change your route on the fly.

But shared AVs will match this. Instead of just walking into the garage, you'll probably have to walk to the end of the driveway, but you'll be able to order a car just before you put on your shoes and it should be waiting for you by the time you get outside.

The best part is when you get to your destination you don't worry about parking - you just get dropped off at the entrance. Vice versa when leaving.

What if you have a load to pickup at Home Depot, and then another load of groceries from the supermarket? You'll probably have to pay a nominal fee for it to wait. The cost of it waiting is negligible, except at peak time. The price for waiting time will probably be higher during those times. So you don't go shopping at multiple places at between 4 and 6pm... Or, if it's important, you pay a bit more.

I don't understand the comparison with washers and dryers because going to the laundromat has a high hassle factor associated with it.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 07:59 AM
  #893  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
There's certainly a convenience in having a car available 24/7 in the garage, and being able to to change your route on the fly.

But shared AVs will match this. Instead of just walking into the garage, you'll probably have to walk to the end of the driveway, but you'll be able to order a car just before you put on your shoes and it should be waiting for you by the time you get outside.

The best part is when you get to your destination you don't worry about parking - you just get dropped off at the entrance. Vice versa when leaving.

What if you have a load to pickup at Home Depot, and then another load of groceries from the supermarket? You'll probably have to pay a nominal fee for it to wait. The cost of it waiting is negligible, except at peak time. The price for waiting time will probably be higher during those times. So you don't go shopping at multiple places at between 4 and 6pm... Or, if it's important, you pay a bit more.

I don't understand the comparison with washers and dryers because going to the laundromat has a high hassle factor associated with it.
You don't understand the comparison because you just poo-poo away any possibility that your shared car vision of the almost instant availability of a suitable vehicle for minimal cost is spun up almost entirely from whole cloth of dreamy press releases and your own wishful thinking.

Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 09:59 AM
  #894  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
You don't understand the comparison because you just poo-poo away any possibility that your shared car vision of the almost instant availability of a suitable vehicle for minimal cost is spun up almost entirely from whole cloth of dreamy press releases and your own wishful thinking.

Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
The bottom line is that the current price of an Uber/Lyft/taxi ride minus the cost of the human driver amounts to a fraction of current ride prices. More and more people will realize it doesn't make sense to own, first a third car, then a second car, and finally any car. It will waterfall. I'm sorry you can't connect the dots and will have to wait to see it actually happen. You won't have to wait long.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 11:38 AM
  #895  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Canada, PG BC
Posts: 3,849

Bikes: 27 speed ORYX with over 39,000Kms on it and another 14,000KMs with a BionX E-Assist on it

Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1024 Post(s)
Liked 57 Times in 49 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
You don't understand the comparison because you just poo-poo away any possibility that your shared car vision of the almost instant availability of a suitable vehicle for minimal cost is spun up almost entirely from whole cloth of dreamy press releases and your own wishful thinking.

Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
You need to read/catch up on what is really happening, MIT seems to think exactly along the lines as some here have posted... https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...-the-new-ride/ I don't think places like MIT would state that something is actually very likely to happen and happen very soon and very fast, if they were really only just dreamers talking about it.


While the era of the connected car is still in its infancy, there is widespread optimism that it’s the wave of the future. Gartner projects that 250 million connected vehicles will hit the road worldwide by 2020. Moreover, the World Economic Forum anticipates driverless vehicles will generate $1 trillion in “economic benefit to consumers and society” over the next 10 years, and autonomous driving features will help prevent 9 percent of accidents by 2025 with the potential to save 900,000 lives in the next 10 years. By 2040, autonomous vehicles are expected to comprise around 25 percent of the global market.


EDIT; and... Just to stay on topic they also believe AV will save almost a million lives within 10 years...

Last edited by 350htrr; 12-31-17 at 11:55 AM.
350htrr is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 12:34 PM
  #896  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The bottom line is that the current price of an Uber/Lyft/taxi ride minus the cost of the human driver amounts to a fraction of current ride prices.
What is your reference for computing the bottom line "ride price" (i.e. cost/fare to the consumer of this scheme) for profitably providing share rides for paying customers with driver less vehicles that will cover the expenses (currently paid by the drivers or the millions and millions of dollars in quarterly losses of investors' funds) of purchasing and maintaining a fleet of vehicles that may be without paying customers a large percentage of the time, insurance, taxes, tolls, fuel, and last but not least return on investment, etc.?

Last edited by I-Like-To-Bike; 12-31-17 at 01:38 PM.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 07:29 PM
  #897  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,077

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
I'm a proponent of self driving cars and understand both the economic and safety benefits they'll bring, but the benefits will come with a massive disruption. People that drive cars/trucks/buses for a living are going to be shafted.

The buggy whip industry declined over a period of decades, but the driver industry is much bigger and will collapse in less than a decade. It will be rough for millions of people.

But there's no stopping it. Strap on and enjoy the ride.
tyrion is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 07:35 PM
  #898  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Canada, PG BC
Posts: 3,849

Bikes: 27 speed ORYX with over 39,000Kms on it and another 14,000KMs with a BionX E-Assist on it

Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1024 Post(s)
Liked 57 Times in 49 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
I'm a proponent of self driving cars and understand both the economic and safety benefits they'll bring, but the benefits will come with a massive disruption. People that drive cars/trucks/buses for a living are going to be shafted.

The buggy whip industry declined over a period of decades, but the driver industry is much bigger and will collapse in less than a decade. It will be rough for millions of people.

But there's no stopping it. Strap on and enjoy the ride.
100%...

I don't want to look up actual numbers and dates... so I am going to say...

1900; there was 10,000 cars In the world, how many cars in the world now...??? Just a 118 years later, a billion.?

I speculate, on reading some projections, they will ALL be replaced in the next 20+ years... by AV... and there certainly will be some growth pains, but onwards and upwards as they say... https://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384

Last edited by 350htrr; 12-31-17 at 07:40 PM.
350htrr is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 08:32 PM
  #899  
What happened?
 
Rollfast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Around here somewhere
Posts: 7,927

Bikes: 3 Rollfasts, 3 Schwinns, a Shelby and a Higgins Flightliner in a pear tree!

Mentioned: 57 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1835 Post(s)
Liked 292 Times in 255 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
The key word there is "force."

Is that like when they pry my cold dead hands from the phony leather steering wheel cover?
__________________
I don't know nothing, and I memorized it in school and got this here paper I'm proud of to show it.
Rollfast is offline  
Old 12-31-17, 08:34 PM
  #900  
What happened?
 
Rollfast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Around here somewhere
Posts: 7,927

Bikes: 3 Rollfasts, 3 Schwinns, a Shelby and a Higgins Flightliner in a pear tree!

Mentioned: 57 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1835 Post(s)
Liked 292 Times in 255 Posts
Originally Posted by 350htrr
100%...

I don't want to look up actual numbers and dates... so I am going to say...

1900; there was 10,000 cars In the world, how many cars in the world now...??? Just a 118 years later, a billion.?

I speculate, on reading some projections, they will ALL be replaced in the next 20+ years... by AV... and there certainly will be some growth pains, but onwards and upwards as they say... Forecasts | Driverless car market watch

Alll the po' folks getting the hand-me-downs and vintage Mustang, Camaro and Mopar Lovers aren't about to care much.
__________________
I don't know nothing, and I memorized it in school and got this here paper I'm proud of to show it.
Rollfast is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.